LoboLeader1 Posted August 31, 2021 Share Posted August 31, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx_2001 Posted August 31, 2021 Share Posted August 31, 2021 Well August produced 6 named storms and nearly a 7th that will form in the next day or so. Also produced 2 majors in the gulf. This season is on pace to be another doozy... Btw didn't someone on here keep posting how August would only have 1 or 2 weak storms? Yeah their posts aged like milk 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted August 31, 2021 Share Posted August 31, 2021 On 8/10/2021 at 10:42 AM, ldub23 said: Euro shows nothing after Fred. http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/ecmwf-oper/2021081000/slp8.png On 8/10/2021 at 11:13 AM, ldub23 said: I said AUG will have 1 or 2 weak storms. 15 minutes ago, OKwx_2001 said: Well August produced 6 named storms and nearly a 7th that will form in the next day or so. Also produced 2 majors in the gulf. This season is on pace to be another doozy... Btw didn't someone on here keep posting how August would only have 1 or 2 weak storms? Yeah their posts aged like milk Here you go! 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ldub23 Posted August 31, 2021 Share Posted August 31, 2021 58 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said: Here you go! Just delayed. Sept looks to be rather slow even with a strong recurver. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattPetrulli Posted August 31, 2021 Share Posted August 31, 2021 27 minutes ago, ldub23 said: Just delayed. Sept looks to be rather slow even with a strong recurver. If this is like your other predictions, looks like a record September is in store. 2 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted August 31, 2021 Share Posted August 31, 2021 GFS op has another cat 3/4 headed for Louisiana… 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prospero Posted August 31, 2021 Share Posted August 31, 2021 Here we go again. 2021 all over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted August 31, 2021 Share Posted August 31, 2021 Here we go again. 2021 all over.Well piles of salt on that. Hypothetical surface trough that results in that GOM TC doesn't resolve until beyond 228 hrs out in an omega block pattern. Such patterns are chaotic and I wouldn't even bother giving much attention until it was at least something resolving in the medium range. If that block does occur though, it would keep the potential monster CV 'cane out in the Atlantic in a recurve, though Bermuda could still be threatened. Again though, those type of patterns are chaotic and could easily break down. It's early to mid September. I have little confidence such would persist unless we were in October/November. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted August 31, 2021 Share Posted August 31, 2021 I'm still not concerned about Larry to be, but am somewhat more interested in what may happen a bit afterward. Way out in cartoonland, the 12Z EPS has an AEW that moves off Africa ~9/11 with many members remaining pretty weak but more importantly moving briskly westward. This may be a sign that it would move much further west than Larry. With it being La Nina or close to it, the climo of AEW's like this one says they have a better chance to get into the western basin than for other ENSO. That climo also says that AEWs that come off Africa through mid Sept., especially during La Nina, still often get pretty far west. Even so, it wouldn't be til 9/21+ that it could reach the CONUS based on this 9/15 map: 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cptcatz Posted August 31, 2021 Share Posted August 31, 2021 5 hours ago, ldub23 said: Just delayed. Sept looks to be rather slow even with a strong recurver. Saving this post to come back to it in a month from now 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ldub23 Posted September 1, 2021 Share Posted September 1, 2021 14 hours ago, cptcatz said: Saving this post to come back to it in a month from now Cool. Except for a recurver to nowhere sept is quite dead on the models. Unless a strong high builds into the NW ATL and stays locked the season is pretty much over. 4 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 1, 2021 Share Posted September 1, 2021 3 minutes ago, ldub23 said: Cool. Except for a recurver to nowhere sept is quite dead on the models. You said the same thing about August 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ldub23 Posted September 1, 2021 Share Posted September 1, 2021 1 minute ago, MJO812 said: You said the same thing about August Just delayed a month. Larry is about it and i dont really care about recurvers, sort of like mid atlantic snow lovers dont care about blizzards in Manitoba. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx_2001 Posted September 1, 2021 Share Posted September 1, 2021 58 minutes ago, ldub23 said: Cool. Except for a recurver to nowhere sept is quite dead on the models. Unless a strong high builds into the NW ATL and stays locked the season is pretty much over If the models were right all the time the 2020 season would have been dead and most of this season would be as well yet the complete opposite happened. Maybe you should stop filling up this thread with posts that obviously won't happen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
madwx Posted September 1, 2021 Share Posted September 1, 2021 1 hour ago, ldub23 said: Cool. Except for a recurver to nowhere sept is quite dead on the models. Unless a strong high builds into the NW ATL and stays locked the season is pretty much over. How are you not banned from this site already? 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cheese007 Posted September 1, 2021 Share Posted September 1, 2021 33 minutes ago, madwx said: How are you not banned from this site already? Comedic value 2 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
madwx Posted September 1, 2021 Share Posted September 1, 2021 A few areas to watch as we go forward over the next two weeks: 1. Larry should continue moving westward and most likely recurve before any land masses but Bermuda and Atlantic Canada will have to keep an eye out 2. At least the next two waves coming off Africa after Larry, they will be moving into a favorable state with the CCKW passing overhead 3. 91L looks slightly better today in the SW Caribbean, wouldn't be surprised if we got a weak storm with this either before making landfall in Belize or in the BOC 4. The GFS has started picking up on development of a low off the SE Coast spinning up off the trailing cold front from ex-Ida 5. There is a non tropical low moving southward over the Azores, there is a very small chance of some tropical/sub tropical development here 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BYG Jacob Posted September 1, 2021 Share Posted September 1, 2021 3 hours ago, madwx said: How are you not banned from this site already? He's the chew toy 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted September 1, 2021 Share Posted September 1, 2021 23 hours ago, GaWx said: I'm still not concerned about Larry to be, but am somewhat more interested in what may happen a bit afterward. Way out in cartoonland, the 12Z EPS has an AEW that moves off Africa ~9/11 with many members remaining pretty weak but more importantly moving briskly westward. This may be a sign that it would move much further west than Larry. With it being La Nina or close to it, the climo of AEW's like this one says they have a better chance to get into the western basin than for other ENSO. That climo also says that AEWs that come off Africa through mid Sept., especially during La Nina, still often get pretty far west. Even so, it wouldn't be til 9/21+ that it could reach the CONUS based on this 9/15 map: Following up from yesterday: today's 12Z EPS has similar activity and may be the next AEW to watch closely in the CONUS for after 9/20: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ldub23 Posted September 1, 2021 Share Posted September 1, 2021 3 hours ago, madwx said: A few areas to watch as we go forward over the next two weeks: 1. Larry should continue moving westward and most likely recurve before any land masses but Bermuda and Atlantic Canada will have to keep an eye out 2. At least the next two waves coming off Africa after Larry, they will be moving into a favorable state with the CCKW passing overhead 3. 91L looks slightly better today in the SW Caribbean, wouldn't be surprised if we got a weak storm with this either before making landfall in Belize or in the BOC 4. The GFS has started picking up on development of a low off the SE Coast spinning up off the trailing cold front from ex-Ida 5. There is a non tropical low moving southward over the Azores, there is a very small chance of some tropical/sub tropical development here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ldub23 Posted September 1, 2021 Share Posted September 1, 2021 I read that and figured JB would be all excited and be tweeting away. I checked and as usual when he sees nothing to tweet about he has a bunch of past hurricane tweets. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted September 1, 2021 Share Posted September 1, 2021 Number of landfalling 150 mph hurricanes in Louisiana last two years = Two Number of 150+ mph hurricanes in the entire Atlantic ocean during the 1980's = Three Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ldub23 Posted September 2, 2021 Share Posted September 2, 2021 JB jumps on the dead sept train. I didnt think it would happen when the consensus was the east coast was at risk. Just the opposite pattern set up. Either a recurve or just too hostile for anything. My guess is the negative NAO will reverse just in time for winter however. Joe Bastardi@BigJoeBastardi·1hJuly 27 made forecastfor hyper August in tropics. I think we can agree it had merit. Well now some good news! Opposite pattern setting up so September much less active relative to averages as far impact, Does not mean nothing at all, but relative to averages less than Aug 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted September 2, 2021 Share Posted September 2, 2021 12/5/2 (about to be 3). Puts us at about the exact average for the entire season and it’s only first week in September Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted September 2, 2021 Share Posted September 2, 2021 1 hour ago, NorthHillsWx said: 12/5/2 (about to be 3). Puts us at about the exact average for the entire season and it’s only first week in September but.. but... Idub23 said it would be a dead season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted September 2, 2021 Share Posted September 2, 2021 2 hours ago, ldub23 said: JB jumps on the dead sept train. I didnt think it would happen when the consensus was the east coast was at risk. Just the opposite pattern set up. Either a recurve or just too hostile for anything. My guess is the negative NAO will reverse just in time for winter however. Joe Bastardi@BigJoeBastardi·1hJuly 27 made forecastfor hyper August in tropics. I think we can agree it had merit. Well now some good news! Opposite pattern setting up so September much less active relative to averages as far impact, Does not mean nothing at all, but relative to averages less than Aug JB is a joke. He said Henri would be a Cat 2 hurricane and cause devastating impacts in New England. If he says September will be quiet then watch out. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted September 2, 2021 Share Posted September 2, 2021 20 hours ago, GaWx said: Following up from yesterday: today's 12Z EPS has similar activity and may be the next AEW to watch closely in the CONUS for after 9/20: Still watching this timeframe as the 0Z EPS still has something coming off Africa ~9/11: End of the run: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted September 2, 2021 Share Posted September 2, 2021 12Z Euro, like the 0Z Euro, has a TS just off the coast of Africa 9/11. This is consistent with the EPS runs I’ve been posting. Note how strong the central Atlantic high is to the NNW of it. If that were to verify, this likely wouldn’t recurve early and may even soon after this start moving WSW for a period, which would be a warning signal as Yaakov ( @jconsor) and I have noted, especially with the La Nina(ish) ENSO: 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheDreamTraveler Posted September 2, 2021 Share Posted September 2, 2021 On 8/31/2021 at 1:18 PM, ldub23 said: Just delayed. Sept looks to be rather slow even with a strong recurver. You saying a strong recurver probably means it's going to end up hitting land somewhere lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ldub23 Posted September 2, 2021 Share Posted September 2, 2021 7 minutes ago, TheDreamTraveler said: You saying a strong recurver probably means it's going to end up hitting land somewhere lol England? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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