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Torch Tiger

April 2021 Discussion

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&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Big Picture...

The seven-day pattern shifts around a little, showing a series
of closed lows across the Northern tier of the USA. This
channels the main jet corridor across the Southern USA from Srn
California to the Carolinas. That concentration of jet dynamics
and west-to-east water vapor transport in the South will favor
heavy rain across that area. New England won`t be shut out, with
low level east-northeast flow bringing some moisture into the
area. But the pattern favors limited precipitation mostly
concentrated on Monday and Friday as surface weather systems
pass south of the region.

 

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8 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

We got a little rain overnight here. There are even puddles on my driveway.  

Weird.  Bone dry here. 

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Everyone's favorite!

Nasty powerful BD front slams through the region during the evening hours tonight - ... 'specially Kevin. He's all psyched.

But, at least we will have the flag wobbling laze faire balm of today. Probably makes 77 to push closer to historical numbers around climo sites - what are those btw?

I dunno, seems we've had some weird hot weeks in Aprils in the last 20 years - despite them overall still averaging the 'cruelest month'.  It may be some of these days are out of reach.

But tomorrow ?   Whole 'nother world behind the front. 

I wonder if it strata bum packs down the coastal plain clear to NJ if the NAM is right -

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Overall though .. the complexion of the hemisphere has changed over the last couple of days - last night's oper. Euro doesn't carry the previous rhea membership at all the same.

That well advertised mid month +PNA/-NAO is still there but there are straying GEF members and the mean is less, too.  Plus, seeing the EPS tending to normalize the neggie nodes in the flow, and the operational Euro ...some days even looked good out there. It's just not carrying the same panache in misery shits that it looked like we could be dealing with when all this was on the charts and indices a week ago.  So, perhaps the seasonal forcing is going to win this race after all - the Euro does look like it's being forced to wash out gradients ... we'll see. 

The operational GFS, as usual... takes the first 4-6 days of its run to scrub out that weird warmth it can't figure out what to do with, such that it can get the hemisphere back to November by D10 ... where NCEP thinks it should always be for some f'up reason.

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The atmosphere will not obey what human models tell it to do. Force field of weather still keeping everything away. Where's Obi Wan to take it down?

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4 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Stein Stein Everywhere is Stein 

[email protected]&$n up the shrubbery , breaking our wells 

No rain , don’t get rain 

Can’t you read the Stein 

Seems like someone from CT is going to be  very wrong about a very wet period for much of sne..you are well ahead in the game as we head into the late innings...

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7 minutes ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

Seems like someone from CT is going to be  very wrong about a very wet period for much of sne..you are well ahead in the game as we head into the late innings...

TBH I hope that someone is right, but man things look brutal thru day10. If you take modeled qpf and slash it like you typically always do. all of NE is in trouble heading into summer . I can’t even fertilize . I missed my window 

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1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

TBH I hope that someone is right, but man things look brutal thru day10. If you take modeled qpf and slash it like you typically always do. all of NE is in trouble heading into summer . I can’t even fertilize . I missed my window 

A lot of nervous people in so nh regarding their wells. Many wells never fully replenished after the drought last year.

 

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5 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

 

Lol,  Hartford is the 14th driest so far ...wow talk  about trying to make something out of nothing. Not even in the top ten...Give me a break. And with a good dowsing  coming tomorrow....no worries here in central CT.   

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41 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

TBH I hope that someone is right, but man things look brutal thru day10. If you take modeled qpf and slash it like you typically always do. all of NE is in trouble heading into summer . I can’t even fertilize . I missed my window 

You want more kids?

  • Haha 3

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33 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Lol,  Hartford is the 14th driest so far ...wow talk  about trying to make something out of nothing. Not even in the top ten...Give me a break. And with a good dowsing  coming tomorrow....no worries here in central CT.   

Well, that’s the only part of SNE  that has gotten a lot of moisture since January. 

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I can see some of the drought concern considering this is normally a wet time in New England, no?

You need the rain now to build up a buffer for when it really dries out in August and September.

It's more concern over the conditions 3-4 months from now versus a concern for today.

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35 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Lol,  Hartford is the 14th driest so far ...wow talk  about trying to make something out of nothing. Not even in the top ten...Give me a break. And with a good dowsing  coming tomorrow....no worries here in central CT.   

Good dowsing? We’re likely .10 or under east of river. Maybe you get .3? Lol

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Another mid-June day... 72F.

All outdoor patios packed, Rec Path looks like Interstate 89 between MPV and BTV.  Ski area parking lot full of grills, sandals and dogs running around.  Take a couple laps, grill some meat, repeat as needed.

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4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Good dowsing? We’re likely .10 or under east of river. Maybe you get .3? Lol

NAM coming in even drier at 12z

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4 minutes ago, Torch Tiger said:

BOS is under 8" through April 9th, that's pretty impressive.

Hopefully not made up over the summer 

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