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Torch Tiger

April 2021 Discussion

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3 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I think that was a the year of that super hot July 4th weekend too.  I attended a July 4th party ... people matriculating in started mid afternoon ... and by 3 or so, were taking turns laying down on floors to cool off, in between going back out to the patio to regale in shifts... 103 on the home station.  And I think Logan was high 99 chilly degrees under an obscuring cirrus plume. 

That's the one.  7/3/2002 set a new, though modest, hottest temp at my transpirationally cooled yard, hitting 93° and the 4th had 91.  That 93 was tied on 9/9 that year but the 79.5° daily mean on 7/3 still reigns supreme.  That August CON had a 9-day heat wave, with the first 6 of those running 95 to 99.  Seven of my 15 days 90+ came in 2002 and that year holds the hottest temp for July, August and September.

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Just when I thought I was done, the models (18z HRRR shown) offer up some considerable flakeage here tomorrow night. A potent inverted trough rotating in from the N, along with a strong cross barrier flow and a veering wind profile (W at surface to NE aloft) could result in some significant upslope rippage along the spine of the Greens. I suspect it'll be rain here before going to non-accumulating snow and then to sticking snow that yields up to 2-3" of accumulation on grassy surfaces as the temperatures drop. The summits of Mt. Snow and Stratton could walk away with 6-10" if trends hold.

 

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41 minutes ago, wxmanmitch said:

Just when I thought I was done, the models (18z HRRR shown) offer up some considerable flakeage here tomorrow night. A potent inverted trough rotating in from the N, along with a strong cross barrier flow and a veering wind profile (W at surface to NE aloft) could result in some significant upslope rippage along the spine of the Greens. I suspect it'll be rain here before going to non-accumulating snow and then to sticking snow that yields up to 2-3" of accumulation on grassy surfaces as the temperatures drop. The summits of Mt. Snow and Stratton could walk away with 6-10" if trends hold.

 

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West wind at surface under a NE wind aloft will crush the west side of the crest.  That’s a classic highly blocked flow... @backedgeapproaching might be white tomorrow morning too?  I’d be surprised if that wind profile allows for enough propagation eastward to Mt Snow and Stratton?  Isn’t the spine down there more like Woodford?  Guess I’ll have to look at the sounding, but it’ll depend how far up in the atmosphere you go until that west wind backs NE... because it’s hard to get the upslope band to work west when fighting NE flow above it.

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4 hours ago, Ginx snewx said:

Not synoptic?

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I was thinking the same thing today. Ya he’s struggling big time...pushes his dry agenda at the expense of any type of accuracy.  You hate to see it. 

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1 hour ago, WinterWolf said:

I was thinking the same thing today. Ya he’s struggling big time...pushes his dry agenda at the expense of any type of accuracy.  You hate to see it. 

Kevin said Wednesday being convective...he wasn't talking about today

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1 hour ago, WinterWolf said:

I was thinking the same thing today. Ya he’s struggling big time...pushes his dry agenda at the expense of any type of accuracy.  You hate to see it. 

No one was discussing Thursday . It was the convection that missed . BTW.. how much total rain have you had this week after Sunday? Asking for a friend 

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10 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Kevin said Wednesday being convective...he wasn't talking about today

He has no clue what’s going on here. Drops in for 3 minutes twice a week and thinks he understands what happened. The convection discussion was thru Wednesday night 

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4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

He has no clue what’s going on here. Drops in for 3 minutes twice a week and thinks he understands what happened. The convection discussion was thru Wednesday night 

You don’t need to be here all day, Like you are, to know what’s going on. You, obviously never really know what’s going on..period.
 

All you do is push BS constantly.  Besides Wiz, We all know what you’ve been saying all week.  Arguing with Ginx about convection vs synoptic.  now you’re back pedaling as usual...we know your game. Same ol same ol. 
 

.4  here today and it was all synoptic.  Plenty wet and rainy today. You can twist all you want. 

No drought. No dryness here... Go find Stein and  have an IPA together. 

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1 hour ago, powderfreak said:

West wind at surface under a NE wind aloft will crush the west side of the crest.  That’s a classic highly blocked flow... @backedgeapproaching might be white tomorrow morning too?  I’d be surprised if that wind profile allows for enough propagation eastward to Mt Snow and Stratton?  Isn’t the spine down there more like Woodford?  Guess I’ll have to look at the sounding, but it’ll depend how far up in the atmosphere you go until that west wind backs NE... because it’s hard to get the upslope band to work west when fighting NE flow above it.

It doesn't go NE until above 500 mb and low level winds are robust, so I suspect blocking will be minimal. NAM has a pronounced inversion near 850 mb (HRRR a bit less so), which is above mountain top level so I expect snow will make it over the spine a bit with the heaviest near the crest. Typically an inversion near or below 900 mb will result in a more blocked flow whereas unblocked flow will have a higher inversion or none at all. 

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15 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

You don’t need to be here all day, Like you are, to know what’s going on. You, obviously never really know what’s going on..period.
 

All you do is push BS constantly.  Besides Wiz, We all know what you’ve been saying all week.  Arguing with Ginx about convection vs synoptic.  now you’re back pedaling as usual...we know your game. Same ol same ol. 
 

.4  here today and it was all synoptic.  Plenty wet and rainy today. You can twist all you want. 

No drought. No dryness here... Go find Stein and  have an IPA together. 

I just looked at 6 stations in Southington. You absolutely 100% did not have .40 of rain today since midnight. That is a downright lie . I see .10-.22 there . Stop the BS 

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14 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

You don’t need to be here all day, Like you are, to know what’s going on. You, obviously never really know what’s going on..period.
 

All you do is push BS constantly.  Besides Wiz, We all know what you’ve been saying all week.  Arguing with Ginx about convection vs synoptic.  now you’re back pedaling as usual...we know your game. Same ol same ol. 
 

.4  here today and it was all synoptic.  Plenty wet and rainy today. You can twist all you want. 

No drought. No dryness here... Go find Stein and  have an IPA together. 

That was about WEDNESDAY...not Thursday. Kevin absolutely said nothing about today being convective. People need to go back and re-read the exchange and convo about that...it's 10000% obvious he was talking about Wednesday. 

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1 hour ago, powderfreak said:

West wind at surface under a NE wind aloft will crush the west side of the crest.  That’s a classic highly blocked flow... @backedgeapproaching might be white tomorrow morning too?  I’d be surprised if that wind profile allows for enough propagation eastward to Mt Snow and Stratton?  Isn’t the spine down there more like Woodford?  Guess I’ll have to look at the sounding, but it’ll depend how far up in the atmosphere you go until that west wind backs NE... because it’s hard to get the upslope band to work west when fighting NE flow above it.

Subcritical flow is not good normally for Stratton and Mt Snow.   If its' really blocked the Taconics can trap the heavier stuff up by me and even Washington County NY can score a few inches and even block the good stuff from me on the Green's western slope.  We aren't usually totally shut out even really blocked flow, but can limit maxing out on accum.   Woodford normally is OK in any flow, the Taconics open up down by Bennington and the elevations are lower just to the north so the precip can bank up into there.  Been a few times where Bennington itself has had more than up by me in Manchester when really blocked.

I see Mitch just chimed in with some sounding stuff, so looks like it may make it to Stratton and even Mt Snow possibly.

 

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hmmm actually I think I stand corrected...the model maps posted were valid through Friday/Saturday and the discussion went from there. 

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5 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

That was about WEDNESDAY...not Thursday. Kevin absolutely said nothing about today being convective. People need to go back and re-read the exchange and convo about that...it's 10000% obvious he was talking about Wednesday. 

He was arguing about a totals map through Saturday.

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All 6 states néed rain as we hit summer season May 1. Everyone is running a deficit. We’ll see what the convection does the next 36 hours. See if Jerry’s and Ginx’s 1-3+ works out for everyone. It could if the storms hit 



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