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April 2021

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Morning thoughts...

Low temperatures in New York City, Newark, and Philadelphia were 28°, 28°, and 29° respectively. For Central Park, that as the coldest April temperature since April 5, 2016 when the temperature fell to 26°. For Newark, it was the coldest April temperature since April 6, 2016 when the temperature was 27°. For Philadelphia, it was the coldest April temperature since April 11, 2018 when the mercury dipped to 29°. At Binghamton, the temperature fell to 17°. That broke the daily record of 19°, which was set in 2003.

Today will be variably cloudy and unseasonably cold. A stray rain or snow shower cannot be ruled out during the afternoon, especially north and west of New York City. High temperatures will likely reach the upper 30s and lower 40s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 41°

Newark: 43°

Philadelphia: 45°

Tomorrow will start off with unseasonably cold temperatures, but a warmer afternoon is likely. The warming trend will continue through the weekend.

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1 hour ago, bluewave said:

The spring pattern we had last year is repeating. Near to record March warmth followed by a cool down in temperature departures in April. Even though the winters were the complete opposite, we still had the blocking return in April. So the EPS and other guidance continues the blocking pattern with an upper low near New England or the Canadian Maritimes.

05E02672-4B65-42CD-90B8-3AD736D01E61.thumb.png.f547d87bbefd22c50a66fc8d5aef6ee1.png
036A324B-7287-4889-8535-CCF43964C085.thumb.png.e601a38da513046332320bbcf9d353d3.png

 

I guess the question is will it be coastal cool or continental cold? I'll take cool over cold, lower heating bills and better gardening conditions. I'm ready to have some fresh picked produce and really don't want to have to wait out freezes until early May again.

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31 in the Bx, after a low of 28. April sun takes a lot of the sting out of it though. Freeze watch (soon to be warning) again tonight. Blooming cherry blossoms here look fine

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Today's definitely very chilly for a non-easterly flow early April day.

Tonight's temps will be the coldest we've seen for April in several years.

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1 hour ago, bluewave said:

It will be interesting to see if this is the second year in a row with the March high temperature warmer than April.

 

 

It may be close but i expect a much warmer second half and some hear later in April.    Until then i think we are dealing with cut off city as ULL starts in 4/5  i New England then more ULL along or into the EC 4/8 - 4/12.  Onshore flow will throw a wrench into any warmer guidance 4/5 - 4/9. Not sure we hit 60s each of those days next week.

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8 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

Don why is it that Atlanta will make it down to freezing and we cant get down to at least the mid 20s?

 

Atlanta’s geography is conducive to allowing cold shots to move into the area without the kind of moderation that sometimes occurs in the New York City area. 

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38 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

It may be close but i expect a much warmer second half and some hear later in April.    Until then i think we are dealing with cut off city as ULL starts in 4/5  i New England then more ULL along or into the EC 4/8 - 4/12.  Onshore flow will throw a wrench into any warmer guidance 4/5 - 4/9. Not sure we hit 60s each of those days next week.

What makes you think much warmer 2nd half outside of climo. Weeklies looked very blocky all month.

Tellies are condusive to prolonged blocking with -NAO/AO and even a rising PNA.

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2 hours ago, bluewave said:

The thing that is even crazier is that TECHNICALLY most of these temperatures swings happened in late Winter.

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1 hour ago, SnoSki14 said:

What makes you think much warmer 2nd half outside of climo. Weeklies looked very blocky all month.

Tellies are condusive to prolonged blocking with -NAO/AO and even a rising PNA.

Agree

This isn't a typical progression of a La Nina.

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19 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Agree

This isn't a typical progression of a La Nina.

Doesn't mean we can't get on the good side of the block which would still bring the warmth and sun to NYC and Long Island. People always look at the negative side of blocking and never the positive side of blocking which is not good at all. 

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Record cold today at LGA and EWR only a week after the record 80s heat last Friday.

 

 

 

 

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33 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Record cold today at LGA and EWR only a week after the record 80s heat last Friday.

 

 

 

 

It's amazing the record low at these locations is only some 10 degrees colder than the average low temperature.

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3 hours ago, MJO812 said:

Agree

This isn't a typical progression of a La Nina.

Sorry but I haven't seen anything supporting blocking all month besides a 1-2 week period. Unsupportive polar vortex. I don't think anyone should be using the weeklies for anything, ever.

took me forever to copy this link since I'm on the road right now to Florida and I still haven't figured out this new phone yet.

I'm not sure why cold weenies are still going at it wishcasting dreary and cold weather all month but it ain't happening.

 

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On 4/2/2021 at 2:56 PM, JakkelWx said:

Sorry but I haven't seen anything supporting blocking all month besides a 1-2 week period. Unsupportive polar vortex. Nobody should be using the weeklies for anything, ever.

took me forever to copy this link since I'm on the road right now to Florida and I still haven't figured out this new phone yet.

I'm not sure why cold weenies are still going at it wishcasting dreary and cold weather all month but it ain't happening.

 

Outside of the unusual cold today and tomorrow, I don’t think anyone is forecasting dreary and cold for the whole month.  The models have the blocking shifting from Greenland back to Canada over the next few weeks. So we trade in Greenland blocking for more +PNA blocking as the month progresses. We could easily get 60s like the models show coming up. Highs to our north will probably mean plenty of NW to NE flow. Maybe a low will eventually try to cut off underneath leading to several days of more easterly flow and rains.
 

Northeastern New Jersey...
   Newark, NJ
   Ptcldy   Sunny    Mocldy   Sunny    Sunny    Ptcldy   Ptcldy
     /42    29/55    39/62    42/65    42/66    46/66    49/65
      /00    00/00    10/10    10/00    00/10    20/20    20/30
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Yeah the weather looks mostly pleasant after today or tomorrow if 50s is too cold for you 

However there will be the threat of some easterly flow days so wouldn't be surprised to see cooler days mixed with the 60s.

70F+ readings will also be rare to find. 

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Earlier today, many parts of the region saw their coldest April temperatures in nearly five years. Low temperatures included:

Albany: 24°
Allentown: 24°
Atlantic City: 30°
Baltimore: 30°
Binghamton: 17° (old record: 19°, 2003)
Boston: 29°
Bridgeport: 29°
Harrisburg: 29°
Hartford: 27°
Islip: 31°
New York City-JFK: 29°
New York City-LGA: 29° (old record: 32°, 2018)
New York City-NYC: 28° (coldest April temperature since April 5, 2016)
Newark: 28° (tied record set in 1964; coldest April temperature since April 6, 2016)
Philadelphia: 29° (coldest April temperature since April 11, 2018)
Providence: 31°
Poughkeepsie: 27°
Scranton: 23°
Trenton: 27°
Washington, DC: 31° (first April freeze since April 10, 2016)
Wilmington, DE: 29°
Worcester: 24°

Today was also the first April day since April 8, 1997 when the temperature fell below 30° in both New York City and Philadelphia on the same date. Since 1980, such days have only occurred in 1982, 1985, 1995, and 1997. The mean highest temperature during the April 16-30 period for such cases was 80° in New York City and 81° in Philadelphia. 1997 had the lowest maximum temperature during the second half of April with 73° figures in both cities. 1985 had the highest such temperatures with a high of 88° in New York City and 90° in Philadelphia.

New York City had a daily high temperature of just 39°. The last time New York City had an April maximum temperature below 40° was April 9, 2003 when the temperature topped out at 39°.

After another frosty night, tomorrow will see temperatures warm into the upper 40s and lower 50s during the afternoon.

That warming trend will continue this weekend and into early next week. Temperatures will likely return to the 60s in the northern Middle Atlantic region by Sunday or Monday.

Historic experience following a warm to very warm March suggests a probability that is skewed toward a warmer than normal April. That warmer scenario remains the base case despite the current strong cold shot.

One thing to watch for would be a possible further decline in the AO during the second half of April. Since 1950, there were 28 cases where the AO averaged between -0.999 and -0.001 during the April 1-15 period, as appears possible in April 2021 based on the most recent guidance. In the subset of cases where the AO average was even lower during the second half of April, the mean temperature during that time was 57.0°. 60% of those cases saw a mean temperature of 56.0° or above during April 16-30. In contrast, the subset that saw the AO rise from the April 1-15 average saw the temperature average 54.7°. 78% of those cases had a mean temperature of less than 56.0°.
 
The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.9°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.6°C for the week centered around March 24. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.15°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.67°C. La Niña conditions will likely give way to neutral-cool ENSO conditions as the spring progresses.

The SOI was -9.59 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +0.787 today.

On March 31 the MJO was in Phase 4 at an amplitude of 1.298 (RMM). The March 30-adjusted amplitude was 1.434 (RMM).

 

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This is probably a silly question, but: can someone explain (or link to an explanation) of the dynamics of the low that causes the cold and rain? I get what high pressure over Greenland can do, but not the other bits.

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1 hour ago, A Moonlit Sky said:

This is probably a silly question, but: can someone explain (or link to an explanation) of the dynamics of the low that causes the cold and rain? I get what high pressure over Greenland can do, but not the other bits.

Basically, air flows toward the area of low pressure. As that happens, air rises leading to condensation and then precipitation.

Here’s a more detailed summary:

https://scied.ucar.edu/learning-zone/how-weather-works/highs-and-lows-air-pressure

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20 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

Morning thoughts...

Low temperatures in New York City, Newark, and Philadelphia were 28°, 28°, and 29° respectively. For Central Park, that as the coldest April temperature since April 5, 2016 when the temperature fell to 26°. For Newark, it was the coldest April temperature since April 6, 2016 when the temperature was 27°. For Philadelphia, it was the coldest April temperature since April 11, 2018 when the mercury dipped to 29°. At Binghamton, the temperature fell to 17°. That broke the daily record of 19°, which was set in 2003.

Today will be variably cloudy and unseasonably cold. A stray rain or snow shower cannot be ruled out during the afternoon, especially north and west of New York City. High temperatures will likely reach the upper 30s and lower 40s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 41°

Newark: 43°

Philadelphia: 45°

Tomorrow will start off with unseasonably cold temperatures, but a warmer afternoon is likely. The warming trend will continue through the weekend.

it stayed in the 30s!  How often does that happen in April?

 

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