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March 17-18 Severe Weather Event


DanLarsen34
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GSP NWS back at it again in their latest discussion  :)

As of 1150 AM: Sometimes in these situations, we must wait for the leopard to reveal his spots. That might be happening as of midday as satellite imagery/sfc obs are showing the wedge boundary/warm front moving northward. Meanwhile, radars show a narrow band of showers extending from the western tip of SC down to the east side of metro ATL. The lower Piedmont and Lakelands have broken out ahead of this line, and the little bit of insolation in that region should help the air mass recover across the Upstate and toward metro Charlotte. On this trend, it is reasonable to expect the boundary to make it north of I-85 in the early afternoon. We still wait for the SPC mesoanalysis to respond, but the 12Z model runs have no qualms in bringing a plume of 1500 J/kg of sfc-based CAPE into the Charlotte metro area in the late afternoon. Will this be enough to energize the line of convection as it moves in from the west? Some of the CAMs think so. Bottom line...at this point...in spite of the downgrade in risk this morning...think it best to not give up on this one just yet. The latest guidance theoretically has more than enough buoyancy and shear to support a few severe thunderstorms east of the mtns, with the overall best chance still to our east.

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21 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

That line moving through the upstate definitely looks a bit more robust than some of the CAMs were showing

It's kind of cool that literally every cell in that line has some very broad rotation, though the environment upstream still isn't overly impressive. 

Polish_20210318_132602514.png

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Just to comment on yesterday for a minute... I would not call it a bust.  IMO, that word is thrown around way too often in severe weather events.  Perhaps it fell a bit short of the potential that it had, though.  

I can't find reference to it anymore, but SPC used to issue a high risk when they were expecting at least 20 tornadoes in a geographical area that is the size of Oklahoma without the panhandle.  I believe there was also some threshold for the number of F/EF2 tornadoes but can't recall for sure.  Very important to remember that not every high risk is going to produce 100 tornadoes or even 50 tornadoes.  There are those days that are elite level... I would almost call those extreme risk days.

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