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CoastalWx

March 2021 Weather Discussion

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7 minutes ago, Cold Miser said:

February brought me to a B-.  If I hit climo with snow totals I could bump up to a B/B+

Not looking forward to any of that talk...Even any threat of March becoming April-lite has my mind going elsewhere, away from weather talk.

You haven’t hit climo where you are Miser?  I Hit it here. So I’m satisfied with the winter. I said back in late October early November that if I hit normal snow for my hood, I’d be very happy. Can’t complain with a normal snow season in SNE. 

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1 minute ago, WinterWolf said:

You haven’t hit climo where you are Miser?  I Hit it here. So I’m satisfied with the winter. I said back in late October early November that if I hit normal snow for my hood, I’d be very happy. Can’t complain with a normal snow season in SNE. 

I'm about 15" shy here, which normally is pretty attainable with March to go, but I doubt it this season.

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1 hour ago, PWMan said:

I hate model-watching in late March, partly because I always forget that the runs are an hour later thanks to DST.  

March is about the time i give up the model subscription, Hate going to DST just for that reason.

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Just now, MarkO said:

Lowell has been close to average(although I haven't kept a tally), Thornton is probably about 20" below average. I think one area hit hard is around exit 24 southeast towards the lakes region. 

Yea, I am at about normal now, but I expect to fall behind climo the rest of the way.

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3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I usually cancel for April...too dangerous to cancel for March.

Its closer to the end of the month when i let them go.

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1 minute ago, dryslot said:

Its closer to the end of the month when i let them go.

I keep wxmodels year round. Softball,Beach and pool weather as well as cane season. Always keep an eye to the sky

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I thought the models were trending in the right direction with the fast flow issue going away and the pieces of the polar vortex breaking off and delivering cold shots to the east. I know the models don’t show anything but I would rather see a good pattern on the models with no low than a garbage pattern with a low. Get the pattern first and the lows will sometimes pop up sometimes out of nowhere. 

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5 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

12z CMC. Has a big storm going ots. Would be nice to move that one closer

Canadian seems the opposite of the new GFS and last nights euro.  

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22 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

You haven’t hit climo where you are Miser?  I Hit it here. So I’m satisfied with the winter. I said back in late October early November that if I hit normal snow for my hood, I’d be very happy. Can’t complain with a normal snow season in SNE. 

About 4 to 8 below for us, he lives near me

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4 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

12z CMC. Has a big storm going ots. Would be nice to move that one closer

Yep, this run the timing is off, but if we can get just a bit more northern stream interaction that will help with the cold air, increase the strength of the low, and bring it farther west. On this run it’s mostly southern stream until a tiny piece of energy from the northern branch phases in last min. All it takes is a small increase in strength as well as a slightly farther south dig from the northern branch and things get very interesting. 

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39 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

You haven’t hit climo where you are Miser?  I Hit it here. So I’m satisfied with the winter. I said back in late October early November that if I hit normal snow for my hood, I’d be very happy. Can’t complain with a normal snow season in SNE. 

I think I am 5 - 8 inches off.

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29 minutes ago, George001 said:

Yep, this run the timing is off, but if we can get just a bit more northern stream interaction that will help with the cold air, increase the strength of the low, and bring it farther west. On this run it’s mostly southern stream until a tiny piece of energy from the northern branch phases in last min. All it takes is a small increase in strength as well as a slightly farther south dig from the northern branch and things get very interesting. 

It's day 9 on one of the worst OP models. Not even worth spending 5 seconds on

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33 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

About 4 to 8 below for us, he lives near me

 

15 minutes ago, Cold Miser said:

I think I am 5 - 8 inches off.

 

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4 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

GEFS not screaming nape weather thats for sure

Not for next weekend, but beyond that it looks pretty torchy on GEFS.

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6 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

 

 

You are over 50 currently. I am at 45.  You get an edge from those eastern systems all the time.

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11 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Not for next weekend, but beyond that it looks pretty torchy on GEFS.

I was only looking to day 10. 10 to 15 keeps changing 

gfs-ens_T2maMean_us_6.png

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11 minutes ago, Cold Miser said:

You are over 50 currently. I am at 45.  You get an edge from those eastern systems all the time.

Yea 5 to 8 below seems about right.

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1 hour ago, Ginx snewx said:

I keep wxmodels year round. Softball,Beach and pool weather as well as cane season. Always keep an eye to the sky

Understandable. I usually skate by with Tropicaltidbits for the tropics....don't need the same level of detail that I do for snowfall. Just the general synoptics.

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30 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Not for next weekend, but beyond that it looks pretty torchy on GEFS.

Yeah... maybe in the PNA a little - but it's bump out there in the late mid range does in fact not go posiive ..it only kisses neutral and collapses mid month.   

It may also ( lol ) help us not to use "torchy" and "nape" adjectives so liberally.... because they are subjective, and that allows bargainers and deniers room for tactical evasion and spin. ahahaha

Kidding but beyond any hope from the PNA and plausible storm that may fall in that first week of the month ??  hmm ... hard to see where any AO and NAO ( respectively ...) bouncing around on the positive side of 0 SD represents failed napery.

Lets define Nape weather once and for all.  First of all ... who's the asshole that brought that term to the forum - oh ... wait.   heh.  Anyway, I'd say yesterday was about a B/B- nape day. It would have been a A, but we kept sheening milk skies...dimming the sun component - the sun is critical...  together with light wind after ~ Feb 15 ... a cool day feels "faux" warm ... I call it fake days of spring when it does that.  Razor thin parking lot warm layer in light wind and cold atmosphere.. It's an appeal, one that can't happen if sun or wind are outside margins of tolerance... So if we put quantifiable metric say,

44 to 60 F;   post Feb 15;   > 70% sun;  light wind    ... to score an A+  "nape-balm" bomb of a day requires hitting all 4 parts of that test

I think with AO and NAO primarily positive in the GEFs ...and the PNA wildcard still edged negative ( despite the relative rise for that first week - which again...doesn't technically go positive anyway ) the GEF'll probably not only nape by the above criteria... but then what is a torch... hmm.

I wanna say +10 F ...regardless... But, it can be 57 with too much wind and it sucks outside...and be +17 ... so maybe that is not good enough.  Unless "torch" removes the sensible appeal entirely... and is just a numerical aspect.  But I think +15 with > 70% sun and light wind as a baser requirement...

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4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Understandable. I usually skate by with Tropicaltidbits for the tropics....don't need the same level of detail that I do for snowfall. Just the general synoptics.

I can get by with pivotal.

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