March 2021

[MJO812]

[jm1220]

1 hour ago, SnoSki14 said:

The only thing that could ruin a warm, sunny spring day is an easterly fetch off those cold Atlantic waters. 

We've seen a lot of that lately and we'll have too see if the -NAO is transient it longer lasting.

If we see the trough build over the Maritimes and a big high, we know what that means. Garbage as long as that’s there. 

[psv88]

66/60 right now and sunny, steamy!

[STORMANLI]

Yeah, 67/61

0.83" Total

[Allsnow]

Still cloudy here 

[bluewave]

Unusually high number of 60° days for Long Island in March. We moved into 3rd place today at 6 days. Tomorrow will be day 7 with the big warm up.

 

Time Series Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY - Month of Mar
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Number of Days Max Temperature >= 60	Missing Count
1	2016	10	0
-	2012	10	0
2	2010	7	0
-	2003	7	0
-	1987	7	0
3	1986	6	0
	2021	6	7
4	2020	5	0
-	2002	5	0
-	2000	5	0
-	1998	5	0
-	1995	5	0
-	1979	5	0
-	1977	5	0
-	1973	5	0

[winterwx21]

5 hours ago, SACRUS said:

April 2 - April 5 looks like the peak of the chill, then moderation beyond there.  Could be backdoor/onshore city for a period though so the warmup may not be that warm during the day.   

Right now the models are showing just a brief cool shot for a couple days, and then it quickly warms back up to the 60s for sunday April 4th and beyond. But as we get closer we'll have to see if the models pick up on the possibility of chilly weather lingering longer due to the NAO being negative. Hopefully it will be quickly back to 60s like the models are showing right now. It's miserable when chilly weather lingers in April.

[jm1220]

Really warmed up today. 72 here now. Only 50 at Captree which is a 20 min or so drive south. 

[psv88]

70 and full sun out on the island. 

[psv88]

Just now, jm1220 said:

Really warmed up today. 72 here now. Only 50 at Captree which is a 20 min or so drive south. 

We got lucky. Clouds all around and western Suffolk cleared out first today 

[winterwx21]

19 minutes ago, psv88 said:

We got lucky. Clouds all around and western Suffolk cleared out first today 

Yeah here in NJ it's cooler than what was forecasted for today. Stuck in the mid 60s due to the cloudy skies.

[bluewave]

Record high of 67° at Islip.

MacArthur/ISP  PTSUNNY   67  56 

Data for March 25 - ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Date	Max Temperature	Min Temperature	Precipitation	Snowfall	Snow Depth
1987-03-25	66	31	T	0.0	0
2017-03-25	61	40	T	0.0	0
2016-03-25	60	43	0.01	0.0	0

[psv88]

21 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

Yeah here in NJ it's cooler than what was forecasted for today. Stuck in the mid 60s due to the cloudy skies.

Dont worry, youll be in the 80s in may and we will be 50s with mist

[bluewave]

The Euro has mid to upper 70s tomorrow north of the Southern State on Long Island.
 

[forkyfork]

the march sun isn't strong enough for these dewpoints 

[psv88]

Topped out at 72 today, back down to 70. Threw on a pair of shorts. this is great

[nyrangers1022]

Nice warm and humid walk. Felt great in my sinuses being I have a head cold

[SnoSki14]

1 hour ago, winterwx21 said:

Yeah here in NJ it's cooler than what was forecasted for today. Stuck in the mid 60s due to the cloudy skies.

Mid 60s in late March is a win. That's at least 10 degrees above normal.

[CIK62]

The  first 7 days of April were averaging  35/49  =  42  on the 0Z..............the 12Z has it 44/65 = 54.         This is called an improved GFS?.        EURO is back with some snow  on April  Fool's Day night.        Joke  is on the User, however.

As I predicted with the HRRR,  T would peak about 2pm  and fall back.         I got to 63* and fell back to 56*.       I even got the fog back!

[donsutherland1]

Clouds and fog broke in parts of the region today sending temperatures into the middle and upper 60s. Other parts of the region remained locked in clouds and fog with temperatures being held to near 60°.

Where there was sunshine on Long Island, as well as parts of northern New England and Quebec, daily record high temperatures were set. Records included:

Burlington: 73° (old record: 68°, 1987 and 1996)
Islip: 67° (old record: 66°, 1987)
Montreal: 69° (old record: 62°, 1996)
Quebec City: 54° (old record: 50°, 2010)
Rivière-du-Loup, QC: 56° (old record: 45°, 2010)
Sherbrooke, QC: 71° (old record: 51°, 2009)
Trois-Rivières, QC: 58° (old record: 52°, 2010)
Westhampton, NY: 66° (old record: 59°, 2017)

Tomorrow will likely be the warmest day so far this year. Daily high temperature records could be approached or broken. Highs in the region will reach the lower to middle 70s with some upper 70s in places. Some showers and even thundershowers are possible.

A sustained period of above to much above normal temperatures remains underway. In general, above normal temperatures will persist through the end of March. Any cool shots will likely be modest and brief. Some of the guidance suggests that a cold shot and at least some snow could affect northern New England near the end of March.

April could start out on the cool side. However, historic experience following a warm to very warm March suggests a probability that is skewed toward a warmer than normal April.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.5°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.5°C for the week centered around March 17. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.08°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.77°C. La Niña conditions will likely give way to neutral-cool ENSO conditions as the spring progresses.

The SOI was +8.28 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +4.042 today.

On March 23 the MJO was in Phase 2 at an amplitude of 1.484 (RMM). The March 22-adjusted amplitude was 1.277 (RMM).

The 31° temperature recorded at Central Park on March 19 was likely New York City's last freeze of 2020-21 based on a combination of the latest ensemble guidance and the diminishing frequency of April freezes. However, some of the recent guidance shows a fairly strong cold shot in early April, so there remains some possibility that the City's last freeze might not have occurred.

April freezes have become less frequent in recent years. During the 1991-2020 base period, there were 12 cases where the last freeze occurred in April. The last time the temperature fell to freezing in April occurred in 2018.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 99% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal March. March will likely finish with a mean temperature near 44.9° (2.4° above normal).

 

[Intensewind002]

Was really nice today early on, had a high of 64 here. Now it's foggy as hell out, visibility was from a .25 mile to maybe as low as a tenth of a mile when I was driving home from work around 7pm

[bluewave]

Funny how we are getting the big -NAO drop to start April just like last year. This will also be the 2nd March in row with no measurable snowfall. It’s the first 2 consecutive Marches with just a T in NYC since 1945 and 1946.
 

2020  3 23  1.175
2020  3 24  1.233
2020  3 25  1.029
2020  3 26  0.781
2020  3 27  0.404
2020  3 28 -0.079
2020  3 29 -0.169
2020  3 30 -0.132
2020  3 31 -0.390
2020  4  1 -1.168
2020  4  2 -1.453
2020  4  3 -1.450
2020  4  4 -1.502
2020  4  5 -1.612
2020  4  6 -1.250
2020  4  7 -0.916
2020  4  8 -1.010
2020  4  9 -1.124

 

Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY - Month of Mar
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Total Snowfall	Missing Count
1	2012	0.0	0
-	1903	0.0	0
-	1878	0.0	0
4	2021	T	7
-	2020	T	0
-	2010	T	0
-	2008	T	0
-	2002	T	0
-	1995	T	0
-	1988	T	0
-	1986	T	0
-	1983	T	0
-	1979	T	0
-	1966	T	0
-	1946	T	0
-	1945	T	0

 

[uncle W]

29 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Funny how we are getting the big -NAO drop to start April just like last year. This will also be the 2nd March in row with no measurable snowfall. It’s the first 2 consecutive Marches with just a T in NYC since 1945 and 1946.
 

2020  3 23  1.175
2020  3 24  1.233
2020  3 25  1.029
2020  3 26  0.781
2020  3 27  0.404
2020  3 28 -0.079
2020  3 29 -0.169
2020  3 30 -0.132
2020  3 31 -0.390
2020  4  1 -1.168
2020  4  2 -1.453
2020  4  3 -1.450
2020  4  4 -1.502
2020  4  5 -1.612
2020  4  6 -1.250
2020  4  7 -0.916
2020  4  8 -1.010
2020  4  9 -1.124

 

Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY - Month of Mar
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Total Snowfall	Missing Count
1	2012	0.0	0
-	1903	0.0	0
-	1878	0.0	0
4	2021	T	7
-	2020	T	0
-	2010	T	0
-	2008	T	0
-	2002	T	0
-	1995	T	0
-	1988	T	0
-	1986	T	0
-	1983	T	0
-	1979	T	0
-	1966	T	0
-	1946	T	0
-	1945	T	0

 

1945-46 Was a snowy December and February winter...before my time...I know hard to believe...

[uncle W]

40 minutes ago, Intensewind002 said:

Was really nice today early on, had a high of 64 here. Now it's foggy as hell out, visibility was from a .25 mile to maybe as low as a tenth of a mile when I was driving home from work around 7pm

Living in SW Brooklyn we had many warm mornings and colder afternoons as the wind shifted from the west to south to southeast...the south shore of Staten Island where I live now is similar...the worst is when it gets foggy like you discribed above...I remember freezing a few times when I went to Coney Island at night...

[Allsnow]

We were due for March snow regression 

[LibertyBell]

16 hours ago, bluewave said:

Unusually high number of 60° days for Long Island in March. We moved into 3rd place today at 6 days. Tomorrow will be day 7 with the big warm up.

 

Time Series Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY - Month of Mar
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Number of Days Max Temperature >= 60	Missing Count
1	2016	10	0
-	2012	10	0
2	2010	7	0
-	2003	7	0
-	1987	7	0
3	1986	6	0
	2021	6	7
4	2020	5	0
-	2002	5	0
-	2000	5	0
-	1998	5	0
-	1995	5	0
-	1979	5	0
-	1977	5	0
-	1973	5	0

tomorrow will tie 2010

[LibertyBell]

6 hours ago, Allsnow said:

We were due for March snow regression 

if it means a snowy February, I'm all for it!

lol you keep getting weenied

 

[CIK62]

The last 6 days of March are averaging 55degs.(46/65), or +8.0.

Wind and T should peak near 3pm-4pm at 25mph+ and 76* under variable skies, and back to the 50's by 10pm.

GFS/EURO still 'duking it out' over the snow chances.       It is back on the GFS---off on the EURO.      CMC has been an observer only---wait till the hurricane season starts for its headfakes.

March to date is  43.2[+1.7].         March should end at  45.4[+2.9].

50*(99%RH) here at 6am, some ground fog.    52* at 7am.      FOG <0.2 since 7am.   52* still at 8am.     50* briefly at 9:30am.       59* at 11am,  fog gone, just cloudy.      62* by Noon and some sun.           70* by 2pm.         Reached 78* with 30%RH at 3:45pm.       70* by 7pm.       65* by 8pm.      60* by 10pm.

[donsutherland1]

Morning thoughts...

A day of near record and record high temperatures is in store. Today will become partly to mostly sunny, windy, and very warm. Winds could gust past 40 mph during the afternoon. High temperatures will likely reach the middle 70s in most of the region. Some areas could approach or reach 80°. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 76°

Newark: 79°

Philadelphia: 80°

Daily records include: 

Allentown: 74°, 1963

Bridgeport: 70°, 1954

Islip: 65°, 1976

New York City-JFK: 67°, 1954

New York City-LGA: 72°, 1943

New York City-NYC: 76°, 1922

Newark: 73°, 1943 and 1986

Philadelphia: 80°, 1921

Poughkeepsie: 75°, 1949 and 1963

Westhampton: 67°, 1954

White Plains: 76°, 1963

A cooler weekend will follow.

[gravitylover]

This is some seriously dense fog. A couple of hundred feet visibility tops, I haven't been out but I can't see the end of the neighbors yards across the street and that's about 300 feet away.