• Member Statistics

    16,734
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    alexmiller
    Newest Member
    alexmiller
    Joined
madwx

Spring 2021 Medium/Long Range Discussion

Recommended Posts

3 hours ago, A-L-E-K said:

[david byrne voice] same as it ever was

 

 

Capture.JPG

Seems most years here in N IL you have the oscillation of 80s one day to 50s the next day till late May. Then as if someone flips a switch it goes to 70 or higher and just stays there. You have some fantastic 70+ weather for about 3 weeks in June before heat >90F hits late Jun. into the Jul4th holiday. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, cyclone77 said:

We had a few wet flakes last year on May 10th so the above doesn't surprise me lol.

We had snow observed 5 days in a row (May 8-12), a feat never before seen at Detroit. This includes measurable snow on May 10th (0.7" imby, 0.5" DTW). I figured we'd used up our May snow quota for years...but ya never know haha

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
6 hours ago, A-L-E-K said:

extended is grim

Are you surprised?  There is no end in sight to the pattern we’ve been in since April.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Are you surprised?  There is no end in sight to the pattern we’ve been in since April.

lol


.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Chicago Storm said:


lol


.

So when is the next cutoff low set to sit and spin for days after this one?  Probably a good thing that models show no 70’s or 80’s through at least the 20th and CPC says below normal.  Would hate people to have the impression the pattern changed.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
So when is the next cutoff low set to sit and spin for days after this one?  Probably a good thing that models show no 70’s or 80’s through at least the 20th and CPC says below normal.  Would hate people to have the impression the pattern changed.

definitely not going to get above 70 the rest of the month.


.
  • Haha 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
5 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said:

getting better

Let the GFS finish. :lol:

  • Haha 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

What in the literal **** is that GFS run for southern Wisconsin for Sunday. 9 inches of snow?! ON MOTHER'S DAY?! I am up here in Green Bay and I am still annoyed at even the thought of that. Even if you were cut that in half because of it being yknow Mid-May that is still 4-5 inches of snow. Eff that. And its only 4 days out too. Same S**t different year. Uggh.

  • Haha 1
  • Sad 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
21 minutes ago, madwx said:

don't worry, it get's better.

may 20.png

Shades of 1947.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
7 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said:

extended is pure zzzz but at least the furnace can finally get a rest

Op GFS was brutally dry iyby.  

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The op Euro and GFS are quite different in the extended.  The GFS keeps the blocking going, which suppresses everything.  The Euro gets the blocking outa here and surges the warmth and storms into the lakes.

10-day qpf

qpf_acc.us_mw.png

qpf_acc.us_mw.png

  • Thanks 1
  • Weenie 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I’d be banking on the Euro because:

1) it’s the superior model

and

2) the GFS is the only model that disagrees with that pattern evolution

The inferior GFS isn’t suddenly going to score one on the mighty Euro.

 

  • Weenie 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
5 minutes ago, TimB84 said:

I’d be banking on the Euro because:

1) it’s the superior model

and

2) the GFS is the only model that disagrees with that pattern evolution

The inferior GFS isn’t suddenly going to score one on the mighty Euro.

 

An inferior model leads the way sometimes.  Not saying it's the case this time though.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, TimB84 said:

I’d be banking on the Euro because:

1) it’s the superior model

and

2) the GFS is the only model that disagrees with that pattern evolution

The inferior GFS isn’t suddenly going to score one on the mighty Euro.

 

was this post clipped from 1999?

  • Haha 4

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
59 minutes ago, Baum said:

was this post clipped from 1999?

You’re right, my comment was rather misleading. The GFS has come a long way. But in general, what I’m saying is I wouldn’t bet on any model that is completely out on an island when compared against pretty much every other model...

 


 

 

...especially if the model out on an island is the GFS.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
5 hours ago, Harry Perry said:

Looks like another long drawn-out upper level low coming for the end of next week. Hopefully it stays East. 
 

Beginning to remind me of the spring/summer of 2009.

I’d bet about $1000 that the summer of ‘21 will not be as cool or cooler than the summer of ‘09.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, roardog said:

I’d bet about $1000 that the summer of ‘21 will not be as cool or cooler than the summer of ‘09.

I don’t think so either, hopefully there’ll be lack of persistent upper level lows and troughing in the GL regions/east. Seems like it’s been western ridge and eastern trough since 2011.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
6 hours ago, Hoosier said:

An inferior model leads the way sometimes.  Not saying it's the case this time though.

Interestingly enough this was discussed elsewhere, and over the last month the 500mb chart comparison, Euro/GDPS/Ukie all are doing better than the GFS. It has fallen below those 2 models even, this upgrade has been a substantial downgrade. You can tell because all you need to do is compare to its own ensembles, and how the op is almost always wildly different by day 7.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Stebo said:

Interestingly enough this was discussed elsewhere, and over the last month the 500mb chart comparison, Euro/GDPS/Ukie all are doing better than the GFS. It has fallen below those 2 models even, this upgrade has been a substantial downgrade. You can tell because all you need to do is compare to its own ensembles, and how the op is almost always wildly different by day 7.

That’s the thing, it’s not like we’re dealing with hour 372 here. Today’s GFS runs had some particularly wild swings in the D9 timeframe in particular.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.