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NorthHillsWx

February 18-19 MAJOR Ice Storm Threat

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3 minutes ago, WXNewton said:

There are several stations in N.Catawba already reading 31.2-31.8. Clouds are starting to roll in so I expect that to jump up some in the next hour. 5-7 mph stiff NNE wind.

I’m down to 29.8 just to the west of Hickory

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3 minutes ago, WXNewton said:

There are several stations in N.Catawba already reading 31.2-31.8. Clouds are starting to roll in so I expect that to jump up some in the next hour. 5-7 mph stiff NNE wind.

I’ve been stuck at 35/36 clouds here now .... It’s right there though Troutman 33

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I said earlier we saw this more than once this winter where the models get aggressive as we close in on an event only to pull back at the last second. It got RAH a couple of times. I wonder if we are seeing it again now.

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Just now, eyewall said:

I said earlier we saw this more than once this winter where the models get aggressive as we close in on an event only to pull back at the last second. It got RAH a couple of times. I wonder if we are seeing it again now.

It should be the expectation as often as we see it

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Just now, eyewall said:

I said earlier we saw this more than once this winter where the models get aggressive as we close in on an event only to pull back at the last second. It got RAH a couple of times. I wonder if we are seeing it again now.

If that means cold rain in Triad sign me up.  Versus ZR. 

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Just now, eyewall said:

I said earlier we saw this more than once this winter where the models get aggressive as we close in on an event only to pull back at the last second. It got RAH a couple of times. I wonder if we are seeing it again now.

They have already scaled back.
This is definitely a bigger chance of impact for my area than the last 2 FZRA systems.  However, I'm expecting nothing more than a glaze to .1" in Wake, other than perhaps the extreme NW corner.  I'm completely fine with that since it is just freezing rain with no snow!  

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6 minutes ago, eyewall said:

I said earlier we saw this more than once this winter where the models get aggressive as we close in on an event only to pull back at the last second. It got RAH a couple of times. I wonder if we are seeing it again now.

I understand, but what causes the 24hr swings? I mean should we just take the most southerly trend and push it back 50 miles even before guidance does? Basically I’m trying to understand what happened since 11 last night to cause it ..... is it as simple as Climo?

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3 minutes ago, PantherJustin said:

I understand, but what causes the 24hr swings? I mean should we just take the most southerly trend and push it back 50 miles even before guidance does? Basically I’m trying to understand what happened since 11 last night to cause it ..... is it as simple as Climo?

It's all part of forecasting.  Not just interpreting the models, but trying to predict ahead of time where they will end up at go time.  Not easy

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Just now, AirNelson39 said:


That’s crazy! I’m in southern Caldwell east of 321 and I’m at 34.2/26.7

That’s a wild difference but we kinda sit in a small valley between two creeks. I consistently run 3-4 degrees below the airport each night. It’s a weird little microclimate.

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That’s crazy! I’m in southern Caldwell east of 321 and I’m at 34.2/26.7

Back up to 35.2/26.1 temps are on a kiddie roller coaster tonight lol
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Setting aside the noise in the models, 35/22 i(at the airport) s a pretty good place to be (several degrees cooler than the HRRR). My only thought is if precip holds back, dewpoints may have a chance to creep up without a corresponding drop in temperature. 

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Still stars and moon here in Kvegas just east of Winston.  Breeze makes it quite a chilly evening.  35 and static electricity dewpoints.  I think we got this one in our sights.

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7 minutes ago, griteater said:

It's all part of forecasting.  Not just interpreting the models, but trying to predict ahead of time where they will end up at go time.  Not easy

True, I guess as someone who’s still rather new.... What happens to cause the NW Shift back majority of the time?

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9 minutes ago, kvegas-wx said:

Still stars and moon here in Kvegas just east of Winston.  Breeze makes it quite a chilly evening.  35 and static electricity dewpoints.  I think we got this one in our sights.

Just went out and put the covers on the car's side mirrors and windshield.  I'm 5 miles north of Kville and wondering if I should have forced wife to bale out and gotten ourselves a hotel down south somewhere for the duration.  Too much politics involved in marrying a farmer's daughter who was raised to tough things out

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9 minutes ago, AirNelson39 said:

Temp continues to rise, now 36.1/26 3 miles NE of HKY airport.

Likewise here.  36.1/27.  This is going the wrong way for ice accumulation.

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Eden, NC:
Currently 34.3/23.8, a gain of 1.1/0.5 in the past thirty minutes. Humidity at 65% and barometer holding steady at 29.66 under cloudy skies here in town.

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