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NorthHillsWx

February 18-19 MAJOR Ice Storm Threat

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5 minutes ago, PackGrad05 said:

Brad P tweeted out that model output is garbage at this point.  Gotta look upstream where the cold air is coming from.  Real observations.

Yep which is why he his sticking to his guns and not going clif diving like some just because of a few model runs today. Like he said in his video the location in and around the warning areas along I40 and north will see a major ICE storm. Was saying it been evident for days now.  

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1) Models always underestimate a wedge to some degree 

2) models always try to kick out a wedge too fast to some degree

3) when making a CAD forecast, real time dew points and temps matter more than anything. Watch that then factor in 1 and 2

4) this is not a rapidly retreating high and not an apps runner. This wedge should have lasting power. Only thing I can figure would be heavy rates able to warm it from above given the hot 850’s, but that will be difficult to forecast until game time. Light rates and I don’t think that impacts this as much

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Either way I plan on getting shots around Roxboro tomorrow and I agree in thinking no matter what I think there will be a significant ice event there through the Triad and portions of western NC. Obviously southern VA as well. Max ice amounts of 0.4-0.6 seem reasonable for now. Raleigh picks up 0.1 and perhaps 0.2 to the northwest on 540.

 

 

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26 minutes ago, WeatherWeenie87 said:

Feel sorry for the NWS folks. I have a feeling this might be a NC/VA border Ice Storm. HRRR, NAM, and Euro have verified warmer than forecast. If this would have happened 10 to 20 years ago, this would have been almost all snow. This is why analogs are useless now. 

Meh, this isn't a setup for snow...pre-storm setup aloft isn't there to support the needed cold temperatures

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5 minutes ago, eyewall said:

Either way I plan on getting shots around Roxboro tomorrow and I agree in thinking no matter what I think there will be a significant ice event there through the Triad and portions of western NC. Obviously southern VA as well. Max ice amounts of 0.4-0.6 seem reasonable for now. Raleigh picks up 0.1 and perhaps 0.2 to the northwest on 540.

 

 

Looking forward to your pictures. Your drone pics have become a highlight of every post-storm day here! 

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Also, don’t declare this storm a bust if fringe counties (mecklenburg, wake people, looking at you!) don’t get much of any ice. This has always been a triad/Virginia border storm, north. Models trends put those on the south sides of the warning areas in play, but stopped before we were ever really in the game, minus a run or two. Overall, same areas we flagged for a major ice storm 2 days ago look to be in for a major ice storm... 

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Latest Model Surface Temperatures at 6AM Thursday at Hickory (HKY) / Greensboro (GSO) / Raleigh-Durham (RDU)

Model: HKY / GSO / RDU

Euro: 33 / 30 / 33

GFS: 32 / 29 / 31

GFS Para: 33 / 29 / 31

CMC: 30 / 28 / 30

ICON: 31 / 29 / 31

HRRR: 32 / 30 / 32

3km NAM: 32 / 30 32

2.5km Canadian RDPS: 30 / 27 / 32

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3 minutes ago, griteater said:

Latest Model Surface Temperatures at 6AM Thursday at Hickory (HKY) / Greensboro (GSO) / Raleigh-Durham (RDU)

Model: HKY / GSO / RDU

Euro: 33 / 30 / 33

GFS: 32 / 29 / 31

GFS Para: 33 / 29 / 31

CMC: 30 / 28 / 30

ICON: 31 / 29 / 31

HRRR: 32 / 30 / 32

3km NAM: 32 / 30 32

2.5km Canadian RDPS: 30 / 27 / 32

Yep not going to get it done around the hickory area... still sticking to my gut pretty much a 33/rain event just south of hickory to state line

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7 minutes ago, griteater said:

Latest Model Surface Temperatures at 6AM Thursday at Hickory (HKY) / Greensboro (GSO) / Raleigh-Durham (RDU)

Model: HKY / GSO / RDU

Euro: 33 / 30 / 33

GFS: 32 / 29 / 31

GFS Para: 33 / 29 / 31

CMC: 30 / 28 / 30

ICON: 31 / 29 / 31

HRRR: 32 / 30 / 32

3km NAM: 32 / 30 32

2.5km Canadian RDPS: 30 / 27 / 32

Thanks Grit

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10 minutes ago, griteater said:

Latest Model Surface Temperatures at 6AM Thursday at Hickory (HKY) / Greensboro (GSO) / Raleigh-Durham (RDU)

Model: HKY / GSO / RDU

Euro: 33 / 30 / 33

GFS: 32 / 29 / 31

GFS Para: 33 / 29 / 31

CMC: 30 / 28 / 30

ICON: 31 / 29 / 31

HRRR: 32 / 30 / 32

3km NAM: 32 / 30 32

2.5km Canadian RDPS: 30 / 27 / 32

The differences across these models in GSO are the differences between Saturday and 2002.  2° difference between an inconvenience and some lawn cleanup and an icy armageddon.

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18Z HRRR shows a good amount less on the southern/eastern edge vs. the 12Z.  

WRAL map has wake split between glaze to .10" and .10" to .25" in northern Wake.  
"A light glaze is possible, especially on elevated surfaces.  Some slick bridges and sidewalks are possible"

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10 minutes ago, PackGrad05 said:

18Z HRRR shows a good amount less on the southern/eastern edge vs. the 12Z.  

Biggest reason why is it keeps almost all precip west through 12-15z. Verbatim, Raleigh wouldn’t even see steady precip until around 15z. No wet bulbing east of precip 

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18z HRRR is a crush job along the escarpment in northern mountains as well as big ice amounts from hickory to gso. Hope QPF is overdone as depicted is devastating


.

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To echo Brad P. The 3K NAM initialized with CLT dew point 3-4 degrees higher than they are currently. 
 

Matthews, NC NOAA station (just south of Charlotte) is currently at 29 degrees. 3K NAM initializes CLT at 33 degrees. BIG difference when 1 degree determines who gets cold rain or not.

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2 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

The 18Z 3K Nam once again is slightly warmer for most at about the time precip is supposed to start 

sfct.us_ma (20).png

sfct.us_ma (19).png

It is way off on dew points though just like it was with the snow event 2 weeks ago. For me it showed a 3 pm dew point of 32, actual is 23.

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Exactly...  Look at real data, upstream and downstream, at this point vs. every model run.  Models are underestimating that cold supply to the north.  Going over snow covered cold ground. 

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3 minutes ago, HKY1894 said:

18z HRRR is a crush job along the escarpment in northern mountains as well as big ice amounts from hickory to gso. Hope QPF is overdone as depicted is devastating


.

The way most of these work out is there is a fairly narrow strip where the WORST of the icing is.  Widespread .50 ice and up is hard to achieve.  That strip is to be determined but based on precip trends, I would say NW piedmont and northern foothills of NC if I was a bettin man.

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Just now, GunBlade said:

To echo Brad P. The 3K NAM initialized with CLT dew point 3-4 degrees higher than they are currently. 
 

Matthews, NC NOAA station (just south of Charlotte) is currently at 29 degrees. 3K NAM initializes CLT at 33 degrees. BIG difference when 1 degree determines who gets cold rain or not.

Brad and about three other Mets I follow have expressed similar concern. Looks like the models don’t have a handle on the CAD (no surprise)

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It's important to note that this isn't an in situ event. It doesn't really matter whether clouds roll in at the right (or wrong) time to lock in warmth or let it escape. This will ultimately be controlled by air that the high pressure funnels into the region. Considering my winds are out of the SE right now I'm not really sure what impacts the current dewpoints are going to ultimately have.

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