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February 17-18th Winter Storm Thread.


John1122
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Mesoscale Discussion 0110
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0100 PM CST Wed Feb 17 2021

   Areas affected...northern Mississippi through middle Tennessee and
   far southern Kentucky

   Concerning...Heavy snow 

   Valid 171900Z - 172200Z

   SUMMARY...Moderate to locally heavy snow continues to spread
   northeastward into the discussion area from the southwest.  1" per
   hour rates will gradually become increasingly likely over the course
   of the afternoon.

   DISCUSSION...Heavier reflectivities are beginning to appear in radar
   mosaic imagery from bear Oxford, MS to southwest of Nashville, TN
   over the past hour.  The precipitation itself is likely tied to
   isentropic lift across upstream areas of Arkansas/Louisiana where
   50-60 kt low-level flow continues to impinge on a shallow
   sub-freezing airmass.  The precipitation itself is outpacing most
   model guidance, and with low-level moistening occurring beneath the
   precipitation shield, areas of moderate to occasionally heavy snow
   should begin across the discussion area over the next 1-2 hours or
   so.  Snow should be the be dominant precip type, though point
   forecast soundings indicate enough of a warm layer aloft to support
   occasional mixing with sleet at times.
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Cold air stubborn here in the London, KY area. Still sitting at 23 degrees with thickening cloud cover. Unless things change rapidly, the 32 forecasted by JKL through mid afternoon could bust.  We have a thick layer of ice and 1-2” of snow on top. 
 

still many without power after the last storm 

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Looking like yet another cold rain event for the valley.
Ughhh. I'm ready for sunshine, spring, and severe weather season already.
Hoping for better luck next winter.

I doubt the temps even fall off much tonight considering how warm it is above us already.


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Temps rocketed from 16 to 29, then hit a brick wall. I do not see the forecasted high of 34 happening, unless it happens at 11:59 pm. Might be the biggest snow of the season here, with the worst timing ever. lots on ice on the trees, wont take much.

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I'm thinking even on the edge of the plateau on Morgan County here I'm SOL. 37/25. Expect John and Cumberland county crew to do better though. 

If this does flop for me, what a flop. Powdery high ratio snow all day yesterday with CAA, to rain and 33 this evening. 1030+ arctic high over the Great Lakes and a low of 15 overnight.  Apparently going with the warmest model is just a good rule of thumb for areas south of Canada now. The NAM even tried to come around for a few runs, lol. 

 

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34 minutes ago, PowellVolz said:

45 at 5k feet. We’re toast in the valley. 7ddd21bdf9e59fe95739cb1dcf862365.png


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Not necessarily...look at the DP, they are setting in very dry air (heats up quicker with sunshine)...you can see how dry it is on the soundings. 20210217_152310.thumb.jpg.a4f01a0058ce806c8d09202bfeb59491.jpg

 

Problem with the HRRR now, isn't the cold retreating..it's a moisture problem. It's now seeing a dry nose hold longer in the valley vs the earlier runs. 19z vs 16zScreenshot_20210217-152409_Chrome.thumb.jpg.287c57d1aa5908a077327aac5c3cdd61.jpgScreenshot_20210217-152444_Chrome.thumb.jpg.b5058fe3a473abd4c81123193a0457ec.jpg

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