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John1122

February 17-18th Winter Storm Thread.

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Just now, PowellVolz said:


Didn’t want to see a trend towards the NAM


.

The NAM is starting to cave towards other models. Once the HRRR gets towards 24 hours out it's been particularly good this year. Though it's still had a fail or two in that range. Hope the colder trend sticks around.  

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3k also working south/east a bit more with snow. 

sn10_acc.us_ov.png&key=c449cfbf3039978aad3813e254b4174a2a170ef3bf085d5d13081f8cca7e0bf2

12z 

sn10_acc.us_ov.png&key=0521e8f4d31dbf1898c0a8db43b19cf2e23a8cec1d8ac3dec6535fd9d74ae8ed

That’s a pretty big jump to be honest. Need 2 more jumps like that to allow for it to trend back NW in the 11th hour.

 

 

.

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NAM has major WAA beginning in a few hours.  The temperature at Morristown and Knox for instance are predicted to go up 3 to 4 degrees between 4 and 7am.  Be curious to see if that actually happens or if it's just the NAM being off. 

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I wasnt going to post this,but the warm nose in this east is real

 

ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: TYS    LAT=  35.82 LON=  -83.98 ELE=   981

                                            18Z FEB16
                 2 M     850    1000    FZING    SFC     SFC    6 HR    SNCVR
                 TMP     TMP     850     HGT     WIND    PCP     QPF     LIQ 
                 (C)     (C)     THK    (FT)    (KTS)   TYPES   (IN)    (IN) 
TUE 18Z 16-FEB  -5.3   -13.5     125       0    27007                           
WED 00Z 17-FEB  -5.3   -11.6     126      31    32004                           
WED 06Z 17-FEB  -6.9    -3.3     126    6999    04004           0.00            
WED 12Z 17-FEB  -5.4    -1.3     128    5855    04004           0.00            
WED 18Z 17-FEB   4.5     0.1     131    5245    00002           0.00            
THU 00Z 18-FEB   1.4     0.9     131    4752    02002           0.01            
THU 06Z 18-FEB  -0.4    -0.5     130    5136    04003           0.14            
THU 12Z 18-FEB   1.2     3.5     132    7813    07005           0.88            
THU 18Z 18-FEB   6.1     1.6     132    7388    33004           0.11            
FRI 00Z 19-FEB   2.6     1.3     131    5146    36005           0.04            
FRI 06Z 19-FEB   0.2    -0.4     130    1938    00005           0.00            
FRI 12Z 19-FEB  -1.2    -3.0     129       1    00005           0.00            
FRI 18Z 19-FEB   2.1    -4.1     129     402    35005           0.00            
SAT 00Z 20-FEB  -0.7    -5.5     129     727    33005           0.00            
SAT 06Z 20-FEB  -5.8    -6.9     128       0    04001           0.00            
SAT 12Z 20-FEB  -6.7    -7.6     127       0    06002           0.00
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21 minutes ago, John1122 said:

NAM has major WAA beginning in a few hours.  The temperature at Morristown and Knox for instance are predicted to go up 3 to 4 degrees between 4 and 7am.  Be curious to see if that actually happens or if it's just the NAM being off. 

I’ve seen radiational cooling offset waa before, but that was in KS where radiational cooling takes on a different meaning than here.  That place turns into a moonscape with just a little snow on the ground.

Good cooling + waa usually means nice lift though 

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13 minutes ago, jaxjagman said:

I wasnt going to post this,but the warm nose in this east is real

 

ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: TYS    LAT=  35.82 LON=  -83.98 ELE=   981

                                            18Z FEB16
                 2 M     850    1000    FZING    SFC     SFC    6 HR    SNCVR
                 TMP     TMP     850     HGT     WIND    PCP     QPF     LIQ 
                 (C)     (C)     THK    (FT)    (KTS)   TYPES   (IN)    (IN) 
TUE 18Z 16-FEB  -5.3   -13.5     125       0    27007                           
WED 00Z 17-FEB  -5.3   -11.6     126      31    32004                           
WED 06Z 17-FEB  -6.9    -3.3     126    6999    04004           0.00            
WED 12Z 17-FEB  -5.4    -1.3     128    5855    04004           0.00            
WED 18Z 17-FEB   4.5     0.1     131    5245    00002           0.00            
THU 00Z 18-FEB   1.4     0.9     131    4752    02002           0.01            
THU 06Z 18-FEB  -0.4    -0.5     130    5136    04003           0.14            
THU 12Z 18-FEB   1.2     3.5     132    7813    07005           0.88            
THU 18Z 18-FEB   6.1     1.6     132    7388    33004           0.11            
FRI 00Z 19-FEB   2.6     1.3     131    5146    36005           0.04            
FRI 06Z 19-FEB   0.2    -0.4     130    1938    00005           0.00            
FRI 12Z 19-FEB  -1.2    -3.0     129       1    00005           0.00            
FRI 18Z 19-FEB   2.1    -4.1     129     402    35005           0.00            
SAT 00Z 20-FEB  -0.7    -5.5     129     727    33005           0.00            
SAT 06Z 20-FEB  -5.8    -6.9     128       0    04001           0.00            
SAT 12Z 20-FEB  -6.7    -7.6     127       0    06002           0.00

The Euro has a razor sharp cutoff where it falls from 3+ to around an inch right around TYS or just NE of it. This explains why. 

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1 minute ago, John1122 said:

The Euro has a razor sharp cutoff where it falls from 3+ to around an inch right around TYS or just NE of it. This explains why. 

More than likely from the inverted trough

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3 minutes ago, Stovepipe said:

I'm interested to see just how cold we can get here tonight.  NWS low is 19, currently 20.

Chickens are pissed.

The forecast here suggests a gradual warming overnight but we'll see. It bottomed out at 10° a few hours ago and now sits at 11°

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 Text might be over doing it to some aspect,it's when the the inverted trough starts to come into play you can see clearly it is bringing with it a warm nose.should effect Nashville just as well but not as bad.Of course the Euro might be wrong,but that is what it is showing

AccuWeather-com®-Professional-Forecast-Models (8).png

AccuWeather-com®-Professional-Forecast-Models (9).png

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1 minute ago, Stovepipe said:

I'm interested to see just how cold we can get here tonight.  NWS low is 19, currently 20.

Chickens are pissed.

Hey, got two dustings today alone.  My house had nothing during one of those, and drove two miles to find the rooftops covered.   Made me think of Lake Effect snow bands....

 

Please read my post in a SNL Jack Handy voice...

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14 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

Hey, got two dustings today alone.  My house had nothing during one of those, and drove two miles to find the rooftops covered.   Made me think of Lake Effect snow bands....

 

Please read my post in a SNL Jack Handy voice...

P7DdSZl.jpg

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