• Member Statistics

    16,658
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    JimMadson
    Newest Member
    JimMadson
    Joined
John1122

February 17-18th Winter Storm Thread.

Recommended Posts

This system is now becoming "almost" a traditional slider.  

So because we don’t see this every day. Does this change the feeder winds to more out of the west? Would this effect the warm nose?


.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, PowellVolz said:


So because we don’t see this every day. Does this change the feeder winds to more out of the west? Would this effect the warm nose?


.

Should shunt it from coming as far North.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
11 minutes ago, PowellVolz said:


So because we don’t see this every day. Does this change the feeder winds to more out of the west? Would this effect the warm nose?


.

Double edged sword IMO.  As Boone notes, it cuts the warm nose.  However, heavier rates may well have forced the air column to cool more efficiently.  

  • Like 1
  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

MRX....

Key Messages...
1) A wintry mix of snow, sleet, and freezing rain can be expected
across the region tonight and Thursday morning. Wintry mix will
transition to all rain by Thursday morning.
2) Very challenging forecast on precipitation type. Initial
precipitation will be influenced by wet bulb cooling due to dry
airmass and eventually strong dynamic forcing between 03-10Z.
However, models strong strong warm air advection/isentropic lift
which will fight to change precipitation to rain.
3) The strong system will also produce widespread rainfall amounts
of 1 to 1 1/2 inches with localized 2 inches+. Given the soggy
soil conditions, most of this will be runoff which may cause some
localized flooding issues.

For Today...
Little changes planned for the forecast. Areas of cloud cover
will move across the region especially the Plateau and southwest
Virginia. Current forecast highs look good.

For Tonight and Thursday, strong dynamic forcing due to enhanced
jet structure (300mb jet near 150kts). Strongest forcing will be
between 03-10Z with impressive isentropic lift across the region.
Will be a very challenging forecast of precipitation type with low
confidence of snow/sleet accumultations in the valley locations


.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, PowellVolz said:

Now it’s cleared back up in Knoxville


.

Same here. Up 6 degrees in the last hour. Now above freezing at 33.1. GFS may have been right. We could hit 50 today at this rate.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

28 here in Crossville now...yucky. Somehow the ground is still completely white though which is stunning to me as powdery as the snow was yesterday. Mostly cloudy but sun is peeking through currently. 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
25 minutes ago, dwagner88 said:

Same here. Up 6 degrees in the last hour. Now above freezing at 33.1. GFS may have been right. We could hit 50 today at this rate.

 

7EA4B191-51D0-4E36-BB99-1B4CFF75C554.gif

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Sitting at 33, DP 19, I can see clouds in the SW horizon... Those mother's need to start trucking this way.

 

Plus side my weather station is getting consistent winds from the NE.

 

Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

 

 

 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, ShawnEastTN said:

Sitting at 33, DP 19, I can see clouds in the SW horizon... Those mother's need to start trucking this way.

Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk
 

Sun is still out here west of Crossville :wacko:

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Yeah its frustrating, but I am noticing more and more high clouds the sunlight looks like it's getting more and more filtered. I don't think it'll much longer before clouds covering the region.

Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Something interesting of note..the HRRR has been trending just a hair stronger with the HP influence down the valley with each run vs 12z..it's just enough to hold the snow in the valley longer. Interested in seeing if this trend continues. 12z vs 16z

Screenshot_20210217-124345_Chrome.jpg

Screenshot_20210217-124421_Chrome.jpg

  • Like 3
  • Thanks 1
  • Weenie 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 minutes ago, TellicoWx said:

Something interesting of note..the HRRR has been trending just a hair stronger with the HP influence down the valley with each run vs 12z..it's just enough to hold the snow in the valley longer. Interested in seeing if this trend continues. 12z vs 16z

Screenshot_20210217-124345_Chrome.jpg

Screenshot_20210217-124421_Chrome.jpg

 

Top is latest?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
19 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

Sitting at 75 here in Kingsport.   

They firing up that torch on Jared drive?

giphy.gif

 

For those of you who don't know, Kingsport has a giant propane heater they fire up if snow is threatening. Quite effective. 

  • Like 1
  • Haha 9

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, Holston_River_Rambler said:

They firing up that torch on Jared drive?

giphy.gif

 

For those of you who don't know, Kingsport has a giant propane heater they fire up if snow is threatening. Quite effective. 

Excuse me for being dumb enough to believe that for a minute lmao.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

You can see what the HRRR is starting to pickup on in the globals. If you look at the 1022 line on the 12z Euro vs 12z NAM...you can see how the HP gets wedged down the valley (snow/ice) vs letting go and retreating north (rain)

Screenshot_20210217-130251_Chrome.jpg

Screenshot_20210217-130324_Chrome.jpg

  • Like 6

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.