John1122

February 17-18th Winter Storm Thread.

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I remember several years back (would have to look back through the threads here, but it’s here somewhere)  where a front end thump was looking to change to rain but it just never did in the eastern valley. In the foothills and mtns it warmed up to nearly 50 degrees, however it stayed in the 20’s to around 30 in the valley and stayed snow the whole time! Ended up with 5.5in at the house and I know some places just north had over a foot! That was about as strange of a situation we could ever expect around here. The thinking was that somehow there was a cold pool aloft over the valley and that the warm nose hit the mtns and just never was able to penetrate back to the west. Extremely rare system indeed. 

I was just talking about that event in this thread I believe. Might have been 2018 but I can’t remember. I ended up with about 8” of snow


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1 hour ago, Jed33 said:

I remember several years back (would have to look back through the threads here, but it’s here somewhere)  where a front end thump was looking to change to rain but it just never did in the eastern valley. In the foothills and mtns it warmed up to nearly 50 degrees, however it stayed in the 20’s to around 30 in the valley and stayed snow the whole time! Ended up with 5.5in at the house and I know some places just north had over a foot! That was about as strange of a situation we could ever expect around here. The thinking was that somehow there was a cold pool aloft over the valley and that the warm nose hit the mtns and just never was able to penetrate back to the west. Extremely rare system indeed. 

I remember that event.  Rain was suppose to be my predominat Ptype and i ended up with around 2 inches of snow in West Knoxville.   North West Knoxville did much better. There were also some Zr if I remember correctly.

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1 hour ago, John1122 said:

In regards to temps tomorrow based on lows tonight, some areas are already at their predicted low. Crossville is predicted for 14 and that's been their high today. It's 18 here with 12 predicted. Knox is predicted to get to 20 and it's only 26 there now. 

TWC hourly suggests that temperatures will rise from this evening all the way until morning so that could be why, although this morning they had our high at 20 degrees today and that never came close obviously. Neither did the sunshine they predicted.  We had 2.75" a couple hours ago and I think it hasn't snowed much more since but it's so light and fluffy it'll probably melt super quick tomorrow and not be of much help temp wise before this system rolls in.

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9 minutes ago, bearman said:

I remember that event.  Rain was suppose to be my predominat Ptype and i ended up with around 2 inches of snow in West Knoxville.   North West Knoxville did much better. There were also some Zr if I remember correctly.

Wonder if anyone knows when this event was. I'd be interested to see if Crossville was warm during it too since the Smoky mountains were. 

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In regards to temps tomorrow based on lows tonight, some areas are already at their predicted low. Crossville is predicted for 14 and that's been their high today. It's 18 here with 12 predicted. Knox is predicted to get to 20 and it's only 26 there now. 
Yep was supposed to get to 32 here today only made it to 25.

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NWS shows little or no accumulation tomorrow night in Crossville. This feels like it could be similar to last Sundays event here (if models continue) where NWS Nashville kept saying 1-2 inches for no real reason (QPF was high, atmosphere  was ripe for snow) even though 99% of models kept showing 5-10" here for at least 24 hours before the event. The models ended up nailing it.

I can see sleet and freezing rain cutting way down on the totals this time, but they're not really forecasting much of that either so maybe they anticipate a switchover to rain much earlier than most models. I did notice on their snow map they had the main snowfall axis about 100+ miles west of what most of the models posted in here are showing 

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6 minutes ago, McMinnWx said:

Was supposed to be 32 here, but only got to 27. Down to 23 now. 

I hope you guys get a good snow before winter is done. My sister lives in Meigs County and wants snow but I don't think they've had more than a dusting this winter at her house. Temperatures haven't cooperated for them.

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Just now, Shocker0 said:

I hope you guys get a good snow before winter is done. My sister lives in Meigs County and wants snow but I don't think they've had more than a dusting this winter at her house. Temperatures haven't cooperated for them.

You and me both! I hope she’s able to cash in on this event. Seems like most of the models are saying she gets something tomorrow night. Hoping the HRRR has nailed it yet again. 

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Already below my low of 19, at 18. If I'm counting rain drops tomorrow, it won't be through lack of the HPs effort. 

Arctic air still squeezing out moisture even as the sky clears. This video is looking SE and the sky has already cleared across the valley:

 

 

I don't know that I can remember a situation like this. Arctic air sweeping in, moisture coming back tomorrow. Skies are clearing and we should get some hours of radiational cooling before the high clouds move back in. 

 

 

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So we here in Clarksville have been getting light snow for the last 4 hours, when we weren't even forecasted snow today. The funny thing is the airport observations have not posted light snow at all, just overcast or overcast with haze.

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Already below my low of 19, at 18. If I'm counting rain drops tomorrow, it won't be through lack of the HPs effort. 
Arctic air still squeezing out moisture even as the sky clears. This video is looking SE and the sky has already cleared across the valley:
 
 
I don't know that I can remember a situation like this. Arctic air sweeping in, moisture coming back tomorrow. Skies are clearing and we should get some hours of radiational cooling before the high clouds move back in. 
 
 
That's my hope for tomorrow is that before we get much sun, or hopefully before sunrise tomorrow the clouds begin moving in to help hold temps down.

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8 minutes ago, tornadoguy11 said:

So we here in Clarksville have been getting light snow for the last 4 hours, when we weren't even forecasted snow today. The funny thing is the airport observations have not posted light snow at all, just overcast or overcast with haze.

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Here in Crossville, too. It started snowing around 5am and has been all day to lay down a good blanket. It should melt quickly tomorrow but if it can even help us 1° here it could make a big difference. It didn't look like us here in East TN had any hope of snow from this event until about 36 hours ago so any snow is good.

JkQmae.jpg

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3 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

18z Euro still has it:

3pHPVJX.png

NWS Nashville seems to be going toward a similar solution (less amounts though) but 100 miles or so west of what most models showing. I noticed a Nashville TV Stations snow map looked closer to the above though as far as location of the heaviest snow.

EyOl2H.jpg

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6 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

18z Euro still has it:

3pHPVJX.png

I don’t feel bad for them after the storm yesterday,  but this would be a pretty big bust for western TN. Another maddening near miss here. 

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3 hours ago, John1122 said:

The HRRR has been killing the NAM on snow systems.  The NAM has mostly been pretty bad this year but has been okay a couple of times. 

In the case study of Monday's storm IMBY, I have to say the NAM outperformed the HRRR. It had the correct solution a day in advance while the HRRR took some time to conform to it.

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Wonder if anyone knows when this event was. I'd be interested to see if Crossville was warm during it too since the Smoky mountains were. 

It was either 2018 or 15. I cannot remember but I 100% remember the setup and what actually happened. Ober Gatlinburg had rain with mid 40’s. I’m 10 miles N of Knoxville and never broke freezing, ended up with 4-8” of snow and a little sleet.


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NWS Nashville seems to be going toward a similar solution (less amounts though) but 100 miles or so west of what most models showing. I noticed a Nashville TV Stations snow map looked closer to the above though as far as location of the heaviest snow.
EyOl2H.jpg&key=adc62c3a61d7fecc17e8d8b2486b749d96ee25a205cbf4ce9ef0f62b7876004c


This looks like the NAM IMO


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1 minute ago, PowellVolz said:


It was either 2018 or 15. I cannot remember but I 100% remember the setup and what actually happened. Ober Gatlinburg had rain with mid 40’s. I’m 10 miles N of Knoxville and never broke freezing, ended up with 4-8” of snow and a little sleet.


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Was this winter storm Jonas in 2016? That event featured incredibly strong downsloping. I was working on Polk county at the time. It was 55 and sunny there but 36 and pouring rain in Chattanooga. 

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