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Typhoon Tip

February 18th ?19th?

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Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

Bust potential is on the higher side not lower . I’d be careful about knee jerking . JMO

not knee jerking, adjusting. 5-10 is a bit too high at the moment for any guidance. And this could bust either way, especially if that WAA snows push farther north than current advertised, then add the 2nd part..

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1 hour ago, Ginx snewx said:

I don't agree as the extensive cryosphere cold in Canada and the Northern USA is going fight back hard. I expect lots of back slapping and nape tanning then boom out of the blue a NJ subsume grabs everyone by the blue balls. I am not being ACATT either. So much contrasting energy available with oscillating teleconnections and of course a final warming to displace Arctic cold. We are on separate paths on this one. I hope those who want a warm early spring before March 21st are ready 

Well....you aren't being AWATT....lol

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14 minutes ago, George001 said:

It looks like my forecast has the gfs on its side but not the euro Canadian and navy. Not a good sign when the model that is agreeing with your forecast is the worst model there is. Probably going to take em down tonight.

There isn't a model that agrees with your forecast.

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8 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said:

This one definitely has higher bust potential than your average storm. We're going to trim back a bit but not that much..

Radar..

 

RAD_MOS_NAT_8KM_L2NCR2_ANI.gif

Its huge down this way because if you shift most models 30 miles NW tomorrow afternoon NYC could see 8, if you shift them 30 south they get 2.

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17 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

The one on the top is usually fairly close. The one on the bottom rarely ever is. 

Was in CT today, big difference in pack around Willington/Union....basically once I hit exit 71 going north on 84 all the grass patches in the median disappeared and pack increased until around MA border, then it leveled off before increasing again around ORH. The NOHRSC map shows it pretty well. 

Pack was much thinner too once south of Exit 68 in Vernon. But it was always pretty much full coverage except the medians/sun torched slopes. It’s just even the medians were snow covered north of exit 71. 

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11 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Bust potential is on the higher side not lower . I’d be careful about knee jerking . JMO

It's easy to poo poo everything when the mood suites you right in the moment, but I may not cut back as much as many think....just pound home the duration aspect.

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10 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said:

I dont hate that look on the 21Z rap, bumped up a bit from 15Z actually.

Looks like the GFS. 6 to 10 ish

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3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

It's easy to poo poo everything when the mood suites you right in the moment, but I may not cut back as much as many think....just pound home the duration aspect.

This X100. If the public sees a dusting by tomorrow night theres gonna be pitch forks, have to hammer the long duration AND light snow aspect of it over 30hrs to really hit that home.

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4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Was in CT today, big difference in pack around Willington/Union....basically once I hit exit 71 going north on 84 all the grass patches in the median disappeared and pack increased until around MA border, then it leveled off before increasing again around ORH. The NOHRSC map shows it pretty well. 

Pack was much thinner too once south of Exit 68 in Vernon. But it was always pretty much full coverage except the medians/sun torched slopes. It’s just even the medians were snow covered north of exit 71. 

Even here a short trip into the valley and it’s a different world. 6 to 8 here.  Would look pretty awesome with a 4 to 6 additional. Nice low dews and heights after the event will keep the snow on snow nice, of course highways will be dry. Hoping to get 8 more this month to confirm my 30 call, solid month. I think 15 to 18 more in March.

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54 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said:

Yeah GFS16 is very paltry compared to the GFS. As far as qpf goes the GFS took a big slice off and GFS16 nudged up slightly. Ill be very intteresed to see how it does overall with this system as well compared to the GFS. IMO GFS16 has been great this season and ive been using it heavily in fxing...when its available. 

450922293_gfs-deterministic-para-massachusetts-total_precip_inch-3833200(1).thumb.png.e7be389372b436da66269f83d16f6471.pnggfs-deterministic-para-massachusetts-total_precip_inch-3833200.thumb.png.f050b2172b58df2f51ef0707255e1672.png

I've noticed on a couple of models there is an area of qpf sticking up into snh towards CON.  Do you know why that is?  It's MBY, but it seems odd.

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10 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Was in CT today, big difference in pack around Willington/Union....basically once I hit exit 71 going north on 84 all the grass patches in the median disappeared and pack increased until around MA border, then it leveled off before increasing again around ORH. The NOHRSC map shows it pretty well. 

Pack was much thinner too once south of Exit 68 in Vernon. But it was always pretty much full coverage except the medians/sun torched slopes. It’s just even the medians were snow covered north of exit 71. 

What did you see in Tolland once you hit the hill heading NE?

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12 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

It's easy to poo poo everything when the mood suites you right in the moment, but I may not cut back as much as many think....just pound home the duration aspect.

Yeah I mean listen biggie .. absolutely not.. but if it snows light to at times moderate for 40+ hours.. 4-8 is very realistic.And you’re seeing that increase in the 18z globals and the hi res always has been hitting a lot of 5-8”. Someone .. probably either Scooter area.. or possibly yours.. hits 10” with OES or norlun assist 

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Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

What did you see in Tolland once you hit the hill heading NE?

It was more than Vernon but the median still had bare patches. It was def less than north of exit 71 in Union where it was fully covered in the median. But exit 68-69 is down around 500-600 feet on that stretch. 

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1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Maybe some terrain enhancement...

Well only  a small part of that area has higher terrain, but I'll take it if its true.  The ice storm made a fookin mess and I have 6" of frozen glop everywhere.  A few inches of snow allows for some walking with more ease.

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1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Maybe some terrain enhancement...

That def what it looks like. That’s the beginnings of the east slope of the Wapack/Monads. The drier air may be draining down from Maine more efficiently to the east of that. 

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I think upper Barnstable county and Plymouth coastal areas could see the most amounts, and also along the CT/MA border and NW RI.  I think a swath of 8-12" occurs in these areas, and perhaps an area of 12-18" across coastal PYM, especially where ocean effect snows enhance the totals.  Also, the Cape and Islands could see moisture enhancement throughout the day and as the surface low takes its time developing.  Again, winds will be minimal.

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2 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said:

I think upper Barnstable county and Plymouth coastal areas could see the most amounts, and also along the CT/MA border and NW RI.  I think a swath of 8-12" occurs in these areas, and perhaps an area of 12-18" across coastal PYM, especially where ocean effect snows enhance the totals.  Also, the Cape and Islands could see moisture enhancement throughout the day and as the surface low takes its time developing.  Again, winds will be minimal.

Have you seen where George has said he will probably take down his forecast tonight?

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11 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

It was more than Vernon but the median still had bare patches. It was def less than north of exit 71 in Union where it was fully covered in the median. But exit 68-69 is down around 500-600 feet on that stretch. 

Yup I know exactly where you mean. That’s the deadly /haunted Tolland triangle where all the accidents and deaths occur. Basically as soon as you hit the top of the hill until exit 68.  Hundreds a year . 
That area past 68 into Willington area is lower. It’s where MPM’s Electric Blue Cafe is . It dips down to 500 feet until you get past Willington. Willington is overall a lower elevated town. 
Ive got 6-8” of concrete here . No grass showing anywhere in town either , except on due south facing slopes and it’s mainly like leaves/ rock/ ledge 

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4 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said:

I think upper Barnstable county and Plymouth coastal areas could see the most amounts, and also along the CT/MA border and NW RI.  I think a swath of 8-12" occurs in these areas, and perhaps an area of 12-18" across coastal PYM, especially where ocean effect snows enhance the totals.  Also, the Cape and Islands could see moisture enhancement throughout the day and as the surface low takes its time developing.  Again, winds will be minimal.

George and Jimmy handing out 18” weenies. 

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34 minutes ago, NeonPeon said:

There isn't a model that agrees with your forecast.

If you use QPF and model snow maps no model ever agreed with my forecast. However on the gfs solution the upper levels and the dynamics indicate that that we would get more snow than those snow maps, likely the lower end of my forecasts. However the 16-20 wouldn’t verify anywhere so that part would bust. That said, it’s the gfs, and it’s the most amplified out of all the models. That said, the gfs is a garbage model and will likely be wrong. When looking at the models that are actually good, yeah my forecast is as cooked as Cam Newton’s arm. On the european especially there is absolutely nothing that supports even half of my forecast. The dynamics that were previously modeled to enhance precip as well as ratios over New England are more offshore now, so there is nothing to bring us even the lower end of my forecast. I was confident that we would get 12-15 and locally 16-20, and I am probably going to be wrong. I’m still going to give it until the overnight runs to take em down though, just in case if the models jump back and undo all the south and dry trends tonight. It looks like the La Niña is going to help give us at least some snow, but not as much as I thought it would. 
 

hopefully the La Niña can help us for the Miller b threat on the 23rd like I thought it would for this one. When I see a La Niña, I don’t give up on winter until April unless the polar vortex is over the North Pole. 
 

 

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