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Typhoon Tip

February 18th ?19th?

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53 minutes ago, George001 said:

I’m not expecting a blizzard, more sustained mod snow for 30 hours or so. However the latest run of the navy was more south though so I have to admit that is a red flag. I’m still waiting to see if it was just an off run or a trend before I get too concerned though, that is a fair point though about the navy not looking great. As a forecaster I want to try to be more accurate and avoid those crazy 3-4 feet snow calls that amount to nothing, so even if the models aren’t showing what I want to see I’m not just going to discount them. Blending the navy euro and Canadian still looks good for my idea of a 16-20 jackpot with most areas getting 12-15 when taking ratios into account so I’m going to stick with it, but I would like to see the navy come back north next run.

I'll bet if certain "prognosticators" on here were to add up their predicted snow totals over the course of a mere two winter seasons, it would translate to a thousand feet of glacier over our heads (even more over the Cape).

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4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

12z Canadian sobered up from the 00z binge.

Yeah, that’s not a good run at all. It went way east with the low which I did not expect it to do, I’ll give it another run but I’m starting to think I’m going to bust. That’s too bad, the models looked good as they were last night, I don’t know why they shifted 50 miles east but they did, and that destroys my entire forecast.  It’s still close but what a terrible performance by the models making that big of a shift this close in.

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6 minutes ago, George001 said:

Yeah, that’s not a good run at all. It went way east with the low which I did not expect it to do, I’ll give it another run but I’m starting to think I’m going to bust. That’s too bad, the models looked good as they were last night, I don’t know why they shifted 50 miles east but they did, and that destroys my entire forecast.  It’s still close but what a terrible performance by the models making that big of a shift this close in.

This has nothing to do with model performance. It’s not called modelology. If your forecast is based on model read outs rather than an understanding of cloud physics, fluid dynamics and numerical weather prediction comprehension, it’s not a forecast at all. 

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12 minutes ago, George001 said:

Yeah, that’s not a good run at all. It went way east with the low which I did not expect it to do, I’ll give it another run but I’m starting to think I’m going to bust. That’s too bad, the models looked good as they were last night, I don’t know why they shifted 50 miles east but they did, and that destroys my entire forecast.  It’s still close but what a terrible performance by the models making that big of a shift this close in.

Because you are overly aggressive and out of touch. That’s not the model’s fault.

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2 minutes ago, das said:

This has nothing to do with model performance. It’s not called modelology. If your forecast is based on model read outs rather than an understanding of cloud physics, fluid dynamics and numerical weather prediction comprehension, it’s not a forecast at all. 

BOOM.

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Just now, CoastalWx said:

Because you are overly aggressive and out of touch. That’s not the model’s fault.

It seems pretty obvious that he's trolling.

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Just now, das said:

This has nothing to do with model performance. It’s not called modelology. If your forecast is based on model read outs rather than an understanding of cloud physics, fluid dynamics and numerical weather prediction comprehension, it’s not a forecast at all. 

633771406276058090_bitchslap-s800x600-82

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5 minutes ago, das said:

This has nothing to do with model performance. It’s not called modelology. If your forecast is based on model read outs rather than an understanding of cloud physics, fluid dynamics and numerical weather prediction comprehension, it’s not a forecast at all. 

You are exactly right, and this is what distinguishes many of the pro mets from the more knowledgeable hobbyists, such as myself.

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45 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I don't care what it did, or didn't do in YBY.

Then add imby to every one of your posts. Thanks in advance 

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Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Put your reading glasses on and look at the locale of the poster for perspective.

I think it's been pretty evident for over a decade that you only care about you back yard, as do most on here.

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55 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

12z runs trending from a yawner to a snoozer.

I'm adopting a new category system for winter storms:

Cat 5 = George001 Fantasy Land
Cat 4 = James and the Magic Gulf Stream
Cat 3 = Scooter Approved
Cat 2 = Yawner
Cat 1 = Snoozer

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Just now, HimoorWx said:

I'm adopting a new category system for winter storms:

Cat 5 = George001 Fantasy Land
Cat 4 = James and the Magic Gulf Stream
Cat 3 = Scooter Approved
Cat 2 = Yawner
Cat 1 = Snoozer

A+

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Just now, Baroclinic Zone said:

I think it's been pretty evident for over a decade that you only care about you back yard, as do most on here.

I mean....I live on the NH border, and the entire swatch of snow clearly edged bodily south..how complicated is it. Does he need a venn diagram to know that he's better off in SE CT?

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Just now, CoastalWx said:

Because you are overly aggressive and out of touch. That’s not the model’s fault.

It is when it shifts 50 miles east in one run 2 days out. My forecast was based on a combination of the jet dynamics, upper level temps, and the storm track being a blend of the euro Canadian and navy. I also used the atmospheric drivers such as La Niña and polar vortex to assess what the fail risk is. With a strong southeast ridge in play and energy fairly far west, I believed the risk was storm would trend so far north we rain, which is why I didn’t buy into those all snow solutions Monday. Everything I looked at screamed overperformer, especially being a bit south with the pattern in place giving us room for some North ticks. It just doesn’t make sense that in a strong La Niña with a southeast ridge and energy amplifying to the west that we miss to the south. That’s why I was so aggressive with my forecast, like with other storms such as the feb 1-2 one I know why I busted (called for 2 ft in Bos, underestimated the well above avg ocean temps making it easy for mild air to come in and worsen the snow ratios as well as change precip to rain). For this one? I have no idea where I went wrong. Everything I looked at, and still everything I am looking at screams overperformer.

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3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Put your reading glasses on and look at the locale of the poster for perspective.

That tenth of an inch on Ens is huge.I can see how you are concerned and felt the need to post how much worse 6z was then 0Z

Screenshot_20210217-114413_Gallery.jpg

Screenshot_20210217-114511_Gallery.jpg

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1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said:

That tenth of an inch on Ens is huge.I can see how you are concerned and felt the need to post how much worse 6z was then 0Z

Screenshot_20210217-114413_Gallery.jpg

Screenshot_20210217-114511_Gallery.jpg

I said "worse", which it was. I did not quantify it, you did. Small changes are significant when someone is on the edge. 

Learn some things.

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2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I mean....I live on the NH border, and the entire swatch of snow clearly edged bodily south..how complicated is it. Does he need a venn diagram to know that he's better off in SE CT?

What a snowhole and who lives in SECT?

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4 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

I think it's been pretty evident for over a decade that you only care about you back yard, as do most on here.

For the most part that is the way it is.  People who have less of a vested interest in a storm tend to pull an Irish exit out of the forum, or at least post less when the trend is not their friend.  With the exception of a few, most of us are guilty of this. 

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