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Typhoon Tip

February 18th ?19th?

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Another factor in me leaning towards a higher impact event is the pattern we are in. We are in a full fledged La Niña pattern with a cold Canada and SE ridge brining well above normal temps to the southern states. With the SE ridge in place this storm can only go so far south. In this type of pattern I have no problem with the models having the bullseye a bit south of us.

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Everybody has their own lens I suppose...

Mine sees this Euro run as decaying the whole previous notion into positively tilted shit smear at 500mb... - maybe "muted" is more like it. Because it's running up against the H f'um C compression  ... or La Nina... or both ( probably, both).  Its like it only manages to dent the surface of a still point water at the instant the flat skipping rock bounces off ... next stop, Svargard 

If this ends up an ANA piece of shit that transitions to a weak cyclogen for NS...  it is what it is.

You know I took a gamble starting this thread, because there's really not a lot of tele support - it's a between/ .. maintenance system.. ( or, one that is between correction events) and those are always over amped this year for some reason... This one is showing that now, right there, in that run - ...

I wonder if the Euro can be wrong enough inside of 4 days this way - .... ah yeah.  

Truth be told, I was a little bit worried last night when the 00z runs looked so nice across the board - we're not that lucky ;)  It's not like this thing is arriving up in between stable larger synoptic features that are dependably orienting where this thing's destiny should be... So, that much correction that fast, had me spooked .. meh, didn't mention it. whatever - we'll see what happens.

23rd may not happen either - it's the same shit as this one. There are no leading large scale indicators suggesting it is really needed in the restorative, mass-field sense ... and so, I'm not taking another wack over the head with this again - 

that one is going to be damped just like the others... how much so is the question.  

I gotta say ... starting to sense a bit of personal seasonal fatigue kicking in. 

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44 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Good run. Man what a great winter it's been up here..pushing March at the end of the euro now. If someone told me I was going to pull nearly 3ft in a storm, barely snow the rest of the winter, and my lowest temp would be warmer than DFW I'd sign up for that in a heartbeat.

Lol welcome to March

speed:
 
sn10_acc.us_ne.png

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1 hour ago, bluewave said:

Looks like the Euro is overdoing the confluence in New England. So that 6”+ zone will probably bump north in later runs similar to the other guidance today.

CE789CC8-B4BE-494C-A0FA-3736A1920CC4.gif.ae905f95c397e90ae15b1af587b17412.gif

26877760-D5F8-4808-9F25-925AB46F9376.gif.5c5b896f5ba097d64a2475d4fc3b1a97.gif
 

 

 

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2 minutes ago, CT Rain said:

There are a few big ensemble members in there. Worth watching. 

The trough axis spends a LONG time to our west....there are several ways this system could get invigorated between early Friday and early Saturday. While I wouldn't be going gung-go at all right now, I don't think this is one of those "we can forecast high end advisory to low end warning and pack it up for the rest of the week" type deals. There's still some good upside that may or may not materialize.

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8 minutes ago, CT Rain said:

There are a few big ensemble members in there. Worth watching. 

Yeah I dunno - hard to deny ( for me ) the modeling performance trend this cold season.  Not sure why but there is a coherent tendency to dampen impulse kinematics when relaying those deeper mid range features into the skies over eastern N/A's mid latitudes. 

This Euro run is poking that inflamed nerve with that solution; it's been trending SE for 3-cycles then this.   we'll see-

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Just now, Cold Miser said:

2/18 and 2/26 in the same thread? 

 

Can someone make a 2/26 thread?

What's happening the 26th?

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Just now, Ginx snewx said:

What's happening the 26th?

I misread your map showing total snowfall to 2-26.  It was just confusing with the maps for 2-18.  Never mind.  

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Just now, Cold Miser said:

I misread your map showing total snowfall to 2-26.  It was just confusing with the maps for 2-18.  Never mind.  

They were discussing 2/22 earlier...I moved all those posts to the February pattern thread

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2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Yeah I dunno - hard to deny ( for me ) the modeling performance trend this cold season.  No sure why but there is a coherent tendency to dampen impulse kinematics when relaying those deeper mid range features into the skies over eastern N/A's mid latitudes. 

This year run is poking that inflamed nerve with that solution.   we'll see-

You start to wonder if that ****ey C**l is compressing the field...

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22 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Yup, and most are left of the mean:

image.thumb.png.6090c572fe1f3cfdaf314b8408cd8776.png

LOL ... not to be too aggressive as a Debbie Downer but, heh... between his "...Big members," and your "Yup" ... how/what exactly defines big using this product abv??

I see ~ 18 members left of the 1008 mb closed pressure contour, and the deepest is a 1000 -

Ah hell I guess.  Thing is, this dips through the Arklotex ...which means it's scooping Gulf pee into the airmass that might get lifted over nascent polar air.   This went from an isentropic lift scenario, to a Miller B yesterday... to now...some kind of a paltry Miller A/ANA hybrid in the operation Euro, but through all those it's had that pwat available to those solutions. 

You know ... 1978 a 1001 mb low passed SE of RI on the 22nd of Jan or whenever that was, and dumped 19" of snow a Logan...I guess under the right circumstances and me not being in a bad mood ...things can find a way of working out using piece of shitness mechanics.  lol

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1 minute ago, 78Blizzard said:

Start a 10 day thread...?   :facepalm:

Was more me being a facetious a.ss because I quickly glanced at the 2-26 date on the map.

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24 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

You start to wonder if that ****ey C**l is compressing the field...

Ha...

yeah ... but truth be told - everything plays its part.

La Nina is not good in February anyway - lest we've forgotten that little kernel of fly shit whirling in the punch bowl.  

Then, the over-arching sense of planetary dooming HC crap which is noted/ .. empirically observed/science, also doesn't like winter - pretty much at any time regardless. 

Putting those on top of one another?   It's really, ...really basic arithmetic.  At least some form or another of quasi synergistic ( constructive ) relationship could and probably is emerging out of the co-mingling of their junk. 

You know I've mentioned it lately .... I think of this year as sandwiched between the mega -AO winter, vs those two assholes f*ing up the party ... 

 

 

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11 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

LOL ... not to be too aggressive as a Debbie Downer but, heh... between his "...Big members," and your "Yup" ... how/what exactly defines big using this product abv??

I see ~ 18 members left of the 1008 mb closed pressure contour, and the deepest is a 1000 -

I guess.  Thing is, this dips through the Arklotex ...which means it's scooping Gulf pee into the airmass that might get lifted over nascent polar air.   This went from an isentropic lift scenario, to a Miller B yesterday... to now...some kind of a paltry Miller A/ANA hybrid in the operation Euro, but through all those it's had that pwat available to those solutions. 

You know ... 1978 a 1001 mb low passed SE of RI on the 22nd of Jan or whenever that was, and dump 19" of snow a Logan...I guess under the right circumstances and me not being in a bad mood ...things can find a way of working out using piece of shitness mechanics.  lol

They all don't have to be 78s. 

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19 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

LOL ... not to be too aggressive as a Debbie Downer but, heh... between his "...Big members," and your "Yup" ... how/what exactly defines big using this product abv??

I see ~ 18 members left of the 1008 mb closed pressure contour, and the deepest is a 1000 -

Ah hell I guess.  Thing is, this dips through the Arklotex ...which means it's scooping Gulf pee into the airmass that might get lifted over nascent polar air.   This went from an isentropic lift scenario, to a Miller B yesterday... to now...some kind of a paltry Miller A/ANA hybrid in the operation Euro, but through all those it's had that pwat available to those solutions. 

You know ... 1978 a 1001 mb low passed SE of RI on the 22nd of Jan or whenever that was, and dumped 19" of snow a Logan...I guess under the right circumstances and me not being in a bad mood ...things can find a way of working out using piece of shitness mechanics.  lol

Lol. Fair enough. I didn’t really look at the pressures just the placements.

We’ll see if we can get this to tighten up a little over the next two days. 

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3 minutes ago, Hoth said:

If we can pull another 5-10" out of this, I will be perfectly content to torch March.

EPS is 6 to 10 for ENS that's impressive 

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1 hour ago, dendrite said:

Good run. Man what a great winter it's been up here..pushing March at the end of the euro now. If someone told me I was going to pull nearly 3ft in a storm, barely snow the rest of the winter, and my lowest temp would be warmer than DFW I'd sign up for that in a heartbeat.

:weenie::weenie: Do you like sauerkraut?

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2 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

EPS is 6 to 10 for ENS that's impressive 

for the entire run, yea. For the end of this storm its about 5-6" statewide. Probs on the EPS are 100/100/30-60% for 1/3/6" across the state.

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