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February 14-16 Winter Storm


Hoosier
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7 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said:

PV stronger on the euro and result is as expected, not a major change tho

I'm sure it will end up trending completely to GFS because why not. But holding hope we can get some decent snows in the deformation band of the upper level system since the sfc system is way south

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19 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said:

PV stronger on the euro and result is as expected, not a major change tho

As typical, the next system is another long-range tease on the euro.  Could it trend NW without the PV?  And no other system riding it's ass too close?  If none of these produce it's time to punt.  

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It's funny how just a couple years can change your mindset and thinking. 2-3 years ago, those on the northwest fringe of storms thought they were sitting pretty In case of last minute NW trend/stronger low pressure systems, which we saw often. The past couple years its been the opposite for the most part.  I never thought I would miss the Northwest trend days. Hoping we can get back to that the next few weeks. Ill take potential for sleet and rain over dry, cold and miss the the SE.

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Don't have access to Euro forecast soundings but it again looks like an extremely deep DGZ around Chicagoland from near the surface all the way into the mid levels.  Can't see omega either but if it is lined up nicely in that growth zone, then you could easily imagine 20:1 or 30:1 type ratios out of this setup.  I'd hesitate to suggest higher without knowing more... also this type of system origin is not necessarily known for producing bonkers high ratios, but we could be dealing with an exception this time.

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2 hours ago, Hoosier said:

Gonna have crazy snow depths around the area if this next week or so of systems pans out.  3", 6", 8" snow depth is kind of all the same to me, but if we're talking around 2 feet or more, yeah, bring it on.

Then please come shovel around my car next week.  lol.......Actually this helps me get my exercise and makes up for skimpings when I spent winters in Indpls area.

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5 minutes ago, Indystorm said:

Then please come shovel around my car next week.  lol.......Actually this helps me get my exercise and makes up for skimpings when I spent winters in Indpls area.

No thanks, this 110 foot driveway is enough shoveling for me.  At least the last couple rounds have been light and fluffy.

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I haven't looked at the skill scores but anecdotally, the GFS seems like it has been struggling a lot, whether it's thermal issues or some other aspects of a system.  We are seeing it again on the system for tomorrow/Saturday... it still can't figure that one out and it is like 24 hours away.

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Don't have access to Euro forecast soundings but it again looks like an extremely deep DGZ around Chicagoland from near the surface all the way into the mid levels.  Can't see omega either but if it is lined up nicely in that growth zone, then you could easily imagine 20:1 or 30:1 type ratios out of this setup.  I'd hesitate to suggest higher without knowing more... also this type of system origin is not necessarily known for producing bonkers high ratios, but we could be dealing with an exception this time.
Pivotal has a 20% off sale going

The DGZ is extremely impressive on both the UKMET and ECMWF from their 12z runs.

Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

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I will cross post this because it does the same at 96 hours as well. I wouldn't trust the GFS output for precip, it can't even agree with intramodel processes.

20 minutes ago, Stebo said:

Incredible amount of garbage from GFS. I will give an example, this is at 45 hours in NE Indiana, sounding

image.thumb.png.0343701ec9b54c8aef758a51c899fbd2.png

Map at same time

GFSMW_prec_ptype_045.png

I mean that is insanely wrong.

 

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Raid the stores Houstonians

 

Inland Harris-
Including the city of Houston
429 PM CST Thu Feb 11 2021


.SUNDAY NIGHT...Light freezing rain, snow and sleet in the late
evening and overnight. Little or no snow and sleet accumulation.
Lows in the upper 20s. Chance of precipitation 60 percent in the
evening increasing to 80 percent after midnight.
.WASHINGTONS BIRTHDAY...Mostly cloudy with light freezing rain,
snow and sleet in the morning, then partly cloudy with a chance
of light freezing rain, snow and sleet in the afternoon. Snow and
sleet accumulation up to 1 inch. Colder. Highs in the lower 30s.
Chance of precipitation 80 percent in the morning decreasing to
40 percent in the afternoon.
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35 minutes ago, WeatherMonger said:

From the ILX FB page, a bit early on the call maybe? I know they lean rather heavily on WPC but, 5 days out....

 

Screenshot_20210211-160205_Facebook.thumb.jpg.41a4906a7d9d31c921b804506c74e688.jpg

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

GFS seems a bit lost per usual. Definitely sad when Oklahoma is going to have a better winter than most of IL. Forecasting 8-12in in their watch there. Shoot at this point I would kill for high end advisory or low end warning amounts. Definitely will hurt if it's a near miss like that. Like either slam me or go far away. Lol

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3 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Raid the stores Houstonians

 

Inland Harris-
Including the city of Houston
429 PM CST Thu Feb 11 2021


.SUNDAY NIGHT...Light freezing rain, snow and sleet in the late
evening and overnight. Little or no snow and sleet accumulation.
Lows in the upper 20s. Chance of precipitation 60 percent in the
evening increasing to 80 percent after midnight.
.WASHINGTONS BIRTHDAY...Mostly cloudy with light freezing rain,
snow and sleet in the morning, then partly cloudy with a chance
of light freezing rain, snow and sleet in the afternoon. Snow and
sleet accumulation up to 1 inch. Colder. Highs in the lower 30s.
Chance of precipitation 80 percent in the morning decreasing to
40 percent in the afternoon.

I feel for all those tech migrants from California. 

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