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Hoosier

February 14-16 Winter Storm

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Under a WWA for 5-9" which is a bit different here for that forecast amount. Despite the tick back east by the NAM still gives me 3-6" which is my thinking. Can also say we do get some enhancement out this far west in the right situations as RC stated. 

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URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
241 PM CST Sun Feb 14 2021

ILZ044>046-051>057-061-062-066-151000-
/O.UPG.KILX.WW.Y.0011.210215T0000Z-210216T0600Z/
/O.EXA.KILX.WS.W.0002.210215T0000Z-210216T1200Z/
/O.CON.KILX.WC.Y.0004.000000T0000Z-210215T1800Z/
Piatt-Champaign-Vermilion-Sangamon-Christian-Macon-Moultrie-
Douglas-Coles-Edgar-Shelby-Cumberland-Effingham-
Including the cities of Monticello, Champaign, Urbana, Danville,
Springfield, Taylorville, Decatur, Sullivan, Tuscola, Charleston,
Mattoon, Paris, Shelbyville, Greenup, and Effingham
241 PM CST Sun Feb 14 2021

...WIND CHILL ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON CST MONDAY...
...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM
CST TUESDAY...

* WHAT...For the Winter Storm Warning, heavy snow expected.
  Total snow accumulations of 6 to 10 inches. For the Wind Chill
  Advisory, very cold wind chills. Wind chills as low as 20
  below zero.

* WHERE...Portions of central, east central and southeast
  Illinois.

* WHEN...For the Winter Storm Warning, from 6 PM this evening to 6
  AM CST Tuesday. For the Wind Chill Advisory, until noon CST
  Monday. An extended time with periods of moderate snowfall is
  expected, resulting in large snowfall totals.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous
  conditions could impact the morning and evening commute. The
  cold wind chills could cause frostbite on exposed skin in under
  30 minutes.

 

 

6-10"

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Growing more concerned with the wind with this thing.  May not be a big deal in city/town centers but outside of those we could be looking at some serious drifting.  We've got 3-4 foot ice guard rails out here in spots from plowing the drifts from last week with 10-15KT N winds over 3-4 inches of fresh cold powder on top of the glacier/snowpack.  Models and offices have been slowly amping winds, especially Monday -Wed, from 10 to 15KT to 15-20 with gusts to 25KT's.  All from the NNE/N for at least 48 hrs or longer.  I can see hwy's like 32, 28 and 24 in IN even being highly impacted besides the secondary country roads.  Could even possibly see I-70 in east central IN having some issues especially if winds continue to slowly climb.  If we do get 6-10 or more of this fluffy powder it's not going to take much to move it around this glacier.  Could easily see some drifts as high as 6 feet in some of the notoriously bad spots around here.  I know that wind doesn't sound like a lot but I would compare it to a 29 degree December 6 inch 12:1 snow with 35 KT winds.  Let the fun begin :lmao:

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6 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Good starting point.  I'm sure they must be a little nervous with some of the CAM runs having enormous amounts in/near the city.  8-12" is a much different feel than, say, 18-24".  If you underdo it in an unpopulated area, only so many people are affected.  If you underdo it in Chicago, a few million people will be wondering what the heck happened.

Lake County, Indiana is also included in the warning based on my NWS forecast.  Is that correct?  Or at least part of the county??

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2 minutes ago, Jackstraw said:

Growing more concerned with the wind with this thing.  May not be a big deal in city/town centers but outside of those we could be looking at some serious drifting.  We've got 3-4 foot ice guard rails out here in spots from plowing the drifts from last week with 10-15KT N winds over 3-4 inches of fresh cold powder on top of the glacier/snowpack.  Models and offices have been slowly amping winds, especially Monday -Wed, from 10 to 15KT to 15-20 with gusts to 25KT's.  All from the NNE/N for at least 48 hrs or longer.  I can see hwy's like 32, 28 and 24 in IN even being highly impacted besides the secondary country roads.  Could even possibly see I-70 in east central IN having some issues especially if winds continue to slowly climb.  If we do get 6-10 or more of this fluffy powder it's not going to take much to move it around this glacier.  Could easily see some drifts as high as 6 feet in some of the notoriously bad spots around here.  I know that wind doesn't sound like a lot but I would compare it to a 29 degree December 6 inch 12:1 snow with 35 KT winds.  Let the fun begin :lmao:

At least I-65 will be smooth sailing with no problems.

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1 minute ago, TheRegionRat said:

Lake County, Indiana is also included in the warning based on my NWS forecast.  Is that correct?  Or at least part of the county??

Yes

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3 minutes ago, Baum said:

Under a WWA for 5-9" which is a bit different here for that forecast amount. Despite the tick back east by the NAM still gives me 3-6" which is my thinking. Can also say we do get some enhancement out this far west in the right situations as RC stated. 

yes i am a little confused as I am under an advisory for 2-5 but my forecast is for 2-4 tomorrow and and 4-7 tomorrow night

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1 minute ago, ILSNOW said:

yes i am a little confused as I am under an advisory for 2-5 but my forecast is for 2-4 tomorrow and and 4-7 tomorrow night

that's one way to CYA:lol:

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5 minutes ago, Baum said:

Under a WWA for 5-9" which is a bit different here for that forecast amount. Despite the tick back east by the NAM still gives me 3-6" which is my thinking. Can also say we do get some enhancement out this far west in the right situations as RC stated. 

Thinking without any lake bail out here and chances for further NAM SE  recorrection ticks  1-2" still looks good.

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14 minutes ago, WeatherMonger said:

Can you make my call as well? :lol:

 

Only thing out of ILX on Facebook is about the cold. Someone asked them about higher totals, sais LSX had mentioned it but they did not respond.

 

Went to LSX page and seen this. Cautiously optimistic, yet knowing howbthings usually pan out keeps me a bit pessimistic.

 

Screenshot_20210214-144906_Facebook.thumb.jpg.b04256488ecc2a0e29cb94882b052a37.jpg

Nice! Looking like they'll upgrade us soon. 

EDIT: just happened: 6-9'' call STL metro

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12 minutes ago, Stevo6899 said:

Grr basically cutting kuchera totals in half for eastern counties, 4-7. Once again dtx smoking doobies, watching reruns of dumb and dumber while new england offices have headlines up and they are a day behind in impact. 

lol DTX going advisory from midnight tonight thru noon Tuesday with 1-2 tonight/tmrw morning plus 3-6 tmrw night/tues morning. So essentially an advisory for 4-8".  God forbid there's that break in the snow lol, I have seen East Coast cities consider 3 and 4 day snow totals 1 "storm" despite full 24 hour breaks of nothing.  We will see what they say in the morning

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2 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

lol DTX going advisory from midnight tonight thru noon Tuesday with 1-2 tonight/tmrw morning plus 3-6 tmrw night/tues morning. So essentially an advisory for 4-8".  God forbid there's that break in the snow lol, I have seen East Coast cities consider 3 and 4 day snow totals 1 "storm" despite full 24 hour breaks of nothing.  We will see what they say in the morning

I'm not one to criticize every NWS decision, but they probably should've gone with a warning.  The 8" in 24 hours may very well be met, but even if it's not, the very cold temps and timing will make it higher impact.

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6 minutes ago, Cary67 said:

Thinking without any lake bail out here and chances for further NAM SE  recorrection ticks  1-2" still looks good.

yeah, it's tough on the fringes as ticks one way or the other change things dramatically as we know. One aspect is in this cold air won't take much on the far NW edge to squeeze something out. It's be nice to see models hold or see a tick back NW. Thought it's not all about the models as LOT mentioned:

" BASED ON A DISCUSSION WITH THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER (WPC),   
THE CHANGES HAVE TO DO WITH A TREND TOWARD A STRONGER SYSTEM   
OVERALL, AND HENCE BETTER MOISTURE TRANSPORT TO ITS BACKSIDE AND IN   
OUR NECK OF THE WOODS."

 

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4 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

lol DTX going advisory from midnight tonight thru noon Tuesday with 1-2 tonight/tmrw morning plus 3-6 tmrw night/tues morning. So essentially an advisory for 4-8".  God forbid there's that break in the snow lol, I have seen East Coast cities consider 3 and 4 day snow totals 1 "storm" despite full 24 hour breaks of nothing.  We will see what they say in the morning

 Well that bodes well for yall because In the past whenever they are too conservative, we always end up overachieving and they upgrade to a warning after 8" has already fallen. O well some things never change.  Nobody really trusts the meteorologists forecasts in Michigan anyway so that's probably why they get away with it.

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7 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

I'm not one to criticize every NWS decision, but they probably should've gone with a warning.  The 8" in 24 hours may very well be met, but even if it's not, the very cold temps and timing will make it higher impact.

They screwed up, not only for that reason but they are grossly lowballing compared to the adjacent offices. Its a bad forecast.

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1 minute ago, Stebo said:

They screwed up, not only for that reason but they are grossly lowballing compared to the adjacent offices. Its a bad forecast.

 They do this all the time and I don't understand why. They are notorious for lowballing, both DTX and GRR. They are so advisory happy all the time. Grand Rapids is actually even worse. They get a wind blowing off Lake Michigan and theyre issuing an advisory for an inch of Lake effect snow, then they get a storm to drop 8" of snow they also issue an advisory. 

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4 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

 They do this all the time and I don't understand why. They are notorious for lowballing, both DTX and GRR. They are so advisory happy all the time. Grand Rapids is actually even worse. They get a wind blowing off Lake Michigan and theyre issuing an advisory for an inch of Lake effect snow, then they get a storm to drop 8" of snow they also issue an advisory. 

 The worst part is all the local news channels basically copy and paste what the nws says in there headlines. I wish they would make their own forecast totals.

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3 minutes ago, Gino27 said:

image.png.24fcb7c4270c571cdcf723bcfcfa520d.png

Nice to see all the offices agree!!

That's weird. I checked Fort Wayne's forecast and it says 8 to 12. I don't think it shows 8 to 12 for them on this map.

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I’ll start by saying IWX does a good job overall. I think they could have just issued WSW for their entire CWA, but it’s not a bad decision to go with a WWA for its northwest counties. The maps looks a little weird since LOT went with warnings, but it’s less of a shock to the public if South Bend starts as a WWA and upgraded later to a warning. Also, gives them wiggle room if amounts trend lower.

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Just now, sbnwx85 said:

I’ll start by saying IWX does a good job overall. I think they could have just issued WSW for their entire CWA, but it’s not a bad decision to go with a WWA for its northwest counties. The maps looks a little weird since LOT went with warnings, but it’s less of a shock to the public if South Bend starts as a WWA and upgraded later to a warning. Also, gives them wiggle room if amounts trend lower.

Yea i think any office would rather have their forecast be overdone than underdone which confuses me about dtx.

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15 minutes ago, Gino27 said:

image.png.24fcb7c4270c571cdcf723bcfcfa520d.png

Nice to see all the offices agree!!

ILX IWX and CLE all went 8 to 12 in the areas adjacent to IND.

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11 minutes ago, Snownado said:

That's weird. I checked Fort Wayne's forecast and it says 8 to 12. I don't think it shows 8 to 12 for them on this map.

Old map from 7 am

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Up here in Racine, WI I’ve been watching the LE snow out there in the distance. You can’t see it from the video and pictures don’t show it, but steam has been steadily rising off the lake all day. She’s primed and ready Chicago.

vUwHrHK.jpg

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