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Hoosier

February 14-16 Winter Storm

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Just now, AWMT30 said:

It is 12-15" for Detroit 

I figured but pink and white are my fav colors, and its only fitting to start my day with a lovely map today. Happy vday to me.

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Man this thing is screaming NW. I went from being on the NW fringe of heavier snow to almost a mix in just 12 hours of runs. Hopefully just windshield wiper effect here.

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4 minutes ago, Gino27 said:

It's both northern IN, ILN, and CLE. From what I've read so far is ILN is treating this as a two part storm and they don't think those areas will reach warning criteria from either wave, despite ending up with 8" overall.

ILN Warning for here says 5-8, but the ILN graphic says 6-9... You would think those should agree with each other. 

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4 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said:

I'll post shortly, will post the total QPF, Kuchera and 10:1 for reference.

 

Edit: Here you go

 

 

 

7584df794f804f9c77c9178ba3830467.jpg72a8c7aa6ceafd218cc251b4189fa93b.jpg366ccad1ae715b80d3c1928715928463.jpg

 What's your take on the kuchera map totals.  Normally you have to at least cut those by 25% but in this setup with Arctic air in place, it's possible they could be more accurate?

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I'll post shortly, will post the total QPF, Kuchera and 10:1 for reference.
 
Edit: Here you go
 
 
 
7584df794f804f9c77c9178ba3830467.jpg&key=6b3edaf6ac1983a5d8754cf55135fcea8178afeda742f0681bb8fa4bd95ad81872a8c7aa6ceafd218cc251b4189fa93b.jpg&key=7c8889ba16a923c9eceb73d5f69e87c7a79113c76a625bbb0341a18318a70130366ccad1ae715b80d3c1928715928463.jpg&key=0f4c1b16509f82e8ef2b8f5eaa4e3a78d50975d8a5e72ce5339520fbdd9ab6dc
QPF total got messed up so trying again 1bcc6a9c73073dc46b5e8fda3bbf3911.jpg

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 What's your take on the kuchera map totals.  Normally you have to at least cut those by 25% but in this setup with Arctic air in place, it's possible they could be more accurate?

They still look overdone, but in this air mass have a chance to be closer to correct in spots. Unfortunately Pivotal Weather doesn't have the 06z run to make a direct comparison. It largely comes down to how deep the DGZ is, how strong the omega is, and how well aligned it is with the DGZ regarding ratios. Having the cold air mass certainly helps when the lift is strong and well aligned with the DGZ.   

 

 

 

 

 

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6 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said:

They still look overdone, but in this air mass have a chance to be closer to correct in spots. Unfortunately Pivotal Weather doesn't have the 06z run to make a direct comparison. It largely comes down to how strong the omega is and how well aligned it is with the DGZ regarding ratios. Having the cold air mass certainly helps when the lift is strong and well aligned with the DGZ.  

 

 

 

 

So you are saying there's a non-zero chance of Indy getting double digits ?

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So you are saying there's a non-zero chance of Indy getting double digits ?

If the liquid equivalent of 0.6" for that run is close, absolutely possible to get double digits. Averaging a 17:1 ratio would get it done at that liquid equivalent. The WxBell Kuchera algorithm has an average around 23:1 which is very likely still overdone for an average. However, in these events, within mesoscale banding if the thermal profile is favorable for a deep DGZ, and strong lift is well aligned with the DGZ you can get at least temporary >20:1 ratios.

 

 

 

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Just now, RCNYILWX said:

If the liquid equivalent of 0.6" for that run is close, absolutely possible to get double digits. Averaging a 17:1 ratio would get it done at that liquid equivalent. The WxBell Kuchera algorithm has an average around 23:1 which is very likely still overdone for an average. However, in these events, within mesoscale banding if the thermal profile is favorable for a deep DGZ, and strong lift is well aligned with the DGZ you can get at least temporary >20:1 ratios.

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I've only seen double digits once in my life (10" in the blizzard of 93) so it would be cool to at least tie that. 

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Here's a better zoom for the 06z Euro, Kuchera output and 10:1 for reference. 555adb6fa850e098bc0f9e749ecbf204.jpg&key=700cc21b1f119c8505d8ea22d9852f3c58bd358f2f9b041246ecc0282f4256b485a9b1b2ded4dc12866ad316d7b19f49.jpg&key=d18057de7046875d3c8afc16fdb2125f239183cb9bb0b44e7f6eda1cc6ad3023

 

Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

 

 

Additionally, QPF, sleet and freezing rain output. 2aaac5afd9745744788aa8c5e055c84e.jpg&key=b3010064ea3da800c880a81ec637aedaefccf7dcf058fb7945ecb7ea3d14b0a4dc827c959d6cceadcfd49135908c569a.jpg&key=26591b72150bb38dfc2da8dc5e4bd05b41dfb8710426a084ecccbbf3adfb3ddf10aa42ece7d08cdfdb087c618a2ad26b.jpg&key=93724266281daefb18ae0675a1a471da54c761b0b8207862452aa4b5a790ff2e

 

 

 

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Cautiously optimistic in SW Ohio. The overachiever on the 8-9th and now this just feels too good to be true. Year after year of disappointing winters... I’m not used to being spoiled like this. 

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If that Euro were to verify I'm looking 3-6". More optimistic than I've been thinking. 

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1 minute ago, OhioWX said:

Cautiously optimistic in SW Ohio. The overachiever on the 8-9th and now this just feels too good to be true. Year after year of disappointing winters... I’m not used to being spoiled like this. 

you deserve it ! good luck !

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12 minutes ago, OhioWX said:

Cautiously optimistic in SW Ohio. The overachiever on the 8-9th and now this just feels too good to be true. Year after year of disappointing winters... I’m not used to being spoiled like this. 

I think this is our jackpot storm. Yes, we are normally lacking in solid snowfall events. It's tough for us to get more than 3-4" at any point. I just hope the end of this week doesn't bring a crippling ice storm. 

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If that Euro were to verify I'm looking 3-6". More optimistic than I've been thinking. 

Thankfully there's good support now from all the non-GFS op models. It may not be done trending either. Distinct trend to weaken the confluence from the departing PV lobe due to an earlier escape east and strengthening ridging out ahead of the system.

 

 

 

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In addition to the changes with weakening confluence and strengthening eastern ridging, doesn't hurt that the 500 mb shortwave is trending stronger and more neutrally to close to negatively tilted. This also feeds back to the background ridging out ahead of the system, with an additional bump in height rises.

 

 

 

 

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Trends have been great for SE MI. North trends seem to be the theme this year. Snow depth could really be something by Friday if these next 2 produce. Current depth in SE MI ranges from 5-9" however outside of the top fluffy layer from yesterday its a pretty solid depth. Layer upon layer of light snows have settled/compressed so it's like walking in frozen sugary sand. 

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From my coworker at LOT on shift today:

 

"Yeah, this really got interesting. 0.5" QPF contour comes into our CWA now, already chatting with neighbors we'll have to increase totals perhaps by a factor of 2. Also, NBM gives Chicago a foot of LES. If the NBM is doing that, we're in trouble. Could envision having to issue a warning for a good chunk of the area." 

 

 

 

 

 

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14 minutes ago, KokomoWX said:

Everything looks good for Kokomo but the NWS forecast remains tempered at 2-4" advisory level.  :thumbsdown:

They'll adjust it at last minute like always. I swear they just hug the crappy gfs op

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Just now, zinski1990 said:

They'll adjust it at last minute like always. I swear they just hug the crappy gfs op

12Z HRRR 

HRRR12Z.png

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1 hour ago, RCNYILWX said:

 

7584df794f804f9c77c9178ba3830467.jpg

This one really brings me back to my younger days and trying to descramble Skinimax.

The trend is our friend for Monday’s storm. Keep it coming.

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2 minutes ago, tuanis said:

This one really brings me back to my younger days and trying to descramble Skinimax.

The trend is our friend for Monday’s storm. Keep it coming.

3A9DEB40-FC81-498B-8F2C-E889F7EED33B.jpeg

Trend is our friend. WAGONS NORTH! 
 

Went from a DAB yesterday to being in a solid advisory event now. 
 

LES is going to be epic. We will be unmoderated for awhile while Hoosier blacks out in joy. 

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