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2/6/-2/7 Snow Threat


wncsnow
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3 hours ago, SnowDawg said:

3km NAM came back in more aggressive with the warm nose than it did at 06z. Ton of QPF went to sleet that run. Again pretty high up there cause the 850s and 925s are well below freezing til bulk of the precip is basically gone.

That doesn’t surprise for habersham. It seems to happen in the majority of set ups like this. Rabun is usually a bit luckier being a bit farther north and having some higher elevation. I am at a decent elevation here. It nothing like clayton lol 

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Just now, SnowDawg said:

Euro very reminiscent of last month's awful storm. Extremely disorganized into almost two separate pieces with a big dry slot between.

That's a good point actually, it does look similar for western NC especially 

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2 minutes ago, NEGa said:

That doesn’t surprise for habersham. It seems to happen in the majority of set ups like this. Rabun is usually a bit luckier being a bit farther north and having some higher elevation. I am at a decent elevation here. It nothing like clayton lol 

My gut tells me the NAM may be a bit too aggressive with the warm nose right now, but needless to say we really need that front end punch to be aggressive. With high rates, picking up just an extra hour or two over the NAM'S transition time could be significant.

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11 minutes ago, SnowDawg said:

My gut tells me the NAM may be a bit too aggressive with the warm nose right now, but needless to say we really need that front end punch to be aggressive. With high rates, picking up just an extra hour or two over the NAM'S transition time could be significant.

Never, ever, ever doubt a warm nose on the NAM. It may not be correct this time, but that model was made for sniffing them out

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Just now, NorthHillsWx said:

Never, ever, ever doubt a warm nose on the NAM. It may not be correct this time, but that model was made for sniffing them out

I guess the NAM has gone back to giving my too much QPF, it has me over 1 inch for this system while the Euro has .25 or less :lol:

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so since ive only been in this region for a little over 4 years, ill ask the danville area folks.....when when nws blacksburg refers to miller a's as the biggest winter weather producers in this area, how big are they talking? i mean i know it wont be dec 2018, which was a nice treat, but how big do storms get in this region ie. danville biggest one day snow total. im very curious (sorry for slightly off topic but the morning  discussion mentioned this so i was musing on it)

 

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1 minute ago, rowjimmy73 said:

so since ive only been in this region for a little over 4 years, ill ask the danville area folks.....when when nws blacksburg refers to miller a's as the biggest winter weather producers in this area, how big are they talking? i mean i know it wont be dec 2018, which was a nice treat, but how big do storms get in this region ie. danville biggest one day snow total. im very curious (sorry for slightly off topic but the morning  discussion mentioned this so i was musing on it)

 

1 of Danville biggest was December 2018. The city got 15" , where I live NW of there got 17" or so.... Miller A's usually produce 4-8" or 6-10" around these parts... sometimes their is mixing involved... now for the storm coming up,  I dont believe Danville or up my way will reach that much,  maybe 2-4" is a good guess from me.

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Just now, BornAgain13 said:

1 of Danville biggest was December 2018. The city got 15" , where I live NW of there got 17" or so.... Miller A's usually produce 4-8" or 6-10" around these parts... sometimes their is mixing involved... now for the storm coming up,  I dont believe Danville or up my way will reach that much,  maybe 2-4" is a good guess from me.

Also Winter Storm Warning criteria for Danville is 4". Will be interested to see the trends the next 12+ hours to see if we reach that criteria 

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Just now, BornAgain13 said:

1 of Danville biggest was December 2018. The city got 15" , where I live NW of there got 17" or so.... Miller A's usually produce 4-8" or 6-10" around these parts... sometimes their is mixing involved... now for the storm coming up,  I dont believe Danville or up my way will reach that much,  maybe 2-4" is a good guess from me.

i'll continuely take the inch or 2 at a time and call it a winter. considering our yearly average in these parts, its a win. 2018 was the best snow ive experienced in years, such a quiet day, my daughters bday and just ripping snow. only other thing i've seen greater was pd2 and feb 83 in nj. Real live thundersnow!

 

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Having just driven from GSO to Cincy, let me instill some cold, hard ground truths about the snow coverage maps that were posted yesterday.  They're wrong.....bigly.  There is barely a drop of snow on the ground north of Beckley, WV.  A stray shady spot, thats it.  Nobody is going to benefit from ground cover keeping temps down, period.

Now to offer some hope for cold, it's already colder than a witches titty here.  Wind is howling all through the mountains of WV and VA, feels like low 20s here in Cincy.  Its coming folks.  You organize the QPF while I'm gone this week.  I'm bringing a truckload of cold back with me on Friday. 

In the meantime, keep your sanity about tomorrow night.B) 

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10 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said:

Also Winter Storm Warning criteria for Danville is 4". Will be interested to see the trends the next 12+ hours to see if we reach that criteria 

I’m not sure anyone East of an imaginary line of Asheville(I-40)- Winston/GSO (I-40)- Hwy220 up to ROA gets more than D-2” event at most but that’s Jmo. West Jefferson NC - Wythville VA will be winner if I’m making Predictions .....(5-8”) for someone in that Area but no one will score more than that imo 

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1 minute ago, kvegas-wx said:

Having just driven from GSO to Cincy, let me instill some cold, hard ground truths about the snow coverage maps that were posted yesterday.  They're wrong.....bigly.  There is barely a drop of snow on the ground north of Beckley, WV.  A stray shady spot, thats it.  Nobody is going to benefit from ground cover keeping temps down, period.

Now to offer some hope for cold, it's already colder than a witches titty here.  Wind is howling all through the mountains of WV and VA, feels like low 20s here in Cincy.  Its coming folks.  You organize the QPF while I'm gone this week.  I'm bringing a truckload of cold back with me on Friday. 

In the meantime, keep your sanity about tomorrow night.B) 

According to the Euro , you won't be bringing back no cold

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18 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said:

According to the Euro , you won't be bringing back no cold

I hear ya, but I'm not buying it.  No strong SER in place, a very strong arctic core pushing south where high temps in Cincy will be 11° on Friday with lows of zero??  C'mon, when the HP is that strong we always feel it in the Carolinas.  And this isnt a one and done, this is a week long, or more,  event as forecasted up here.

Something isnt adding up down south.

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4 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

Bullish for mountain areas. How much did you factor in the latest Euro?

I do not know their whole thinking. Their AFD will be out soon. I am off the forecast desk today and only re-posting what those in the office came up with.

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