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February 7th Storm Threat Discussion/Obs


mappy
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3 minutes ago, Jebman said:

Better look out around Feb 16 in the Mid Atlantic! That super frigid airmass will end interacting with a storm and will probably hurl back immense, immense amounts of snow!

This is going to be a FUN February for the entire Washington Metropolitan Region!

the whole artic airmass being pushed back for 3 days in a row is annoying. it reminds me of last year when they kept saying artic airmass polar vortex to hit east coast next week. It never even happened. I think after the second week of jan we didnt hit below 32 for a high all winter. 

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Just now, Ruin said:

the whole artic airmass being pushed back for 3 days in a row is annoying. it reminds me of last year when they kept saying artic airmass polar vortex to hit east coast next week. It never even happened. I think after the second week of jan we didnt hit below 32 for a high all winter. 

It's gonna make it this time.

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1 hour ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

I’ve always felt that heavy convection to the south can rob some of the precip to the north. 

Correct

Big bust way back I think 80’s was precip was rushing up toward us through so VA and long line of thunderstorms formed west to east across GA and north FL and shut it down the end. I think it was NWS Corey I was talking with as this just fell apart. Down the road seen it half dozen more so not frequent, if they fire up south to north then dampening effect not as great 

 

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21 minutes ago, Ruin said:

the whole artic airmass being pushed back for 3 days in a row is annoying. it reminds me of last year when they kept saying artic airmass polar vortex to hit east coast next week. It never even happened. I think after the second week of jan we didnt hit below 32 for a high all winter. 

When last year was that?  All I remember was a raging +AO all winter 

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1 minute ago, yoda said:

Seeing pics on Twitter of SC getting hit hard with snow

Bring it!  
 

No sign the convection in TN or in the Carolinas / Florida is affecting the radar up north. No doubt heavy precipitation makes its way here.  

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5 minutes ago, yoda said:

Snowing in Radford, VA per poster in SE forum 

Yea that band is def the divider. I’m assuming that will flip us here shortly as well. About 20-25 min from Radford. Lost 2 degrees on the temp. Down to 37 

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Boy that first band was ultra disappointing. Was under bright yellows for easily over 30 minutes and I still have predominantly rain. Makes zero sense with all kinds of sleet and snow reports to my south and west. I hope that’s not a bad omen for peeps further north. Temp went from 39 to 35 however since that band came through. Really am going to need radar to fill in or the backend to over perform. 

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21 minutes ago, pazzo83 said:

heat island is magical - in the absence of wind, the temperature does not drop here.  NYC is even more insane.

That I can attest to. Grew up 30 miles due north of NYC. There were nights we’d get 10-15 degrees colder than Manhattan. Didn’t think Baltimore/DC had such a big UHI effect. Much smaller cities. Wild. 

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7 minutes ago, dman said:

42.6 down 3 degrees in 3 hours. Radar shows precip overhead but nothing reaching the ground yet. Weather channel's future cast shows rain here until about 7am followed by a short period of snow/mix. Disappointing but a pretty typical outcome here for borderline snow setups.

Chillll my dude. Returns literally just hit your area. It’ll be precipitating within the hour. Yes, climo says you won’t fair as well as Baltimore, but a decent # of models show some good snow into your area. 
 

enjoy. 

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My buddy in NW Roanoke is currently reporting SN+. Says there are literal meatballs falling from the sky. Temp was in the mid 40s there today and he said it took mere minutes for the snow to begin sticking to colder surfaces. 
 

Overall current OBS look good and the precip shield is both intensifying and coming right at us. I honestly see a Northerly movement to the swath of precip in NC SC and VA more than anything else. Also appears in the final frames of the latest radar loop that the two distinct areas of precip that were in VA/GA/Carolinas versus TN/AL/MS are trying to merge together as the SLP off the shores of GA/SC begins to get its act together. Pressure falls beginning to accelerate off the coast and the low SHOULD take a NNE track from here  

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