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Central PA - Winter 2020/2021 Part 2


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54 minutes ago, pirates21 said:

There’s some beautiful homes up there. New home construction has increased in that area the last couple years. There are some nice trails and state game lands up there. It’s nice because you’re close to Altoona but in the wilderness of beautiful mountains, streams and picturesque sunsets

When I was a kid, my dad used to drive my telescope and I up to a big open field about a half mile past the lookout turnoff. On a clear winter night... Amazing. 

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1 minute ago, Bubbler86 said:

Verbatim model reading would make tomorrow one of our top 5-6 snows this Winter I believe.  Getting less headlines than I would expect especially with the terrible timing.  Potential for some of those "I got stuck on the way to work in a 4 hour traffic jam" stories.   Take the LSV.  Most models have some jackpotting in the 4-6" range.  MDT could potentially get more snow tomorrow than all of last winter. 

Great point! As you mentioned earlier, it is going to be a tough call for schools in the LSV, especially if the snow doesn’t move in until 8 or possibly 10 am for eastern areas. An early dismissal would put the busses back on the roads in the middle of the storm in the late morning to early afternoon. It will be interesting to see how this develops. It could be a bad situation for schools & commuters.

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6 minutes ago, Mshaffer526 said:

When I was a kid, my dad used to drive my telescope and I up to a big open field about a half mile past the lookout turnoff. On a clear winter night... Amazing. 

Great area to look at the night sky and check out meteor showers. I still go up that way anytime there’s a meteor event

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Great point! As you mentioned earlier, it is going to be a tough call for schools in the LSV, especially if the snow doesn’t move in until 8 or possibly 10 am for eastern areas. An early dismissal would put the busses back on the roads in the middle of the storm in the late morning to early afternoon. It will be interesting to see how this develops. It could be a bad situation for schools & commuters.

They’ll just be virtual and avoid the whole issue.
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10 minutes ago, anotherman said:


They’ll just be virtual and avoid the whole issue.

 

2 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

I mentioned this before but all the schools I saw cancel school last week also cancelled virtual.  Not sure why.  I did not look into schools in Cumberland, Dauphin, York, etc...

My school district does virtual snow days, even the 2 days last week. Hopefully school districts make the right call about this one and do snow days just to be safe. 

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18 minutes ago, anotherman said:


They’ll just be virtual and avoid the whole issue.

Sometimes if they wake up with no snow on the ground and “only” an Advisory amount is forecast, they send them to school and then deal with it later on.
With all of the recent storms, I hope they make the right call tomorrow and don’t put anyone in a bad situation.

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8 minutes ago, Storm Clouds said:

WGAL just said 1-3 inches area wide and a low impact storm and because of the temperatures above freezing, it won’t lay on the roads much. How can they not give any more warning about this to the public? 

If it comes late morning into the afternoon they may be right though even mid-day roads will get covered with over 1" an hour rates.  If it starts before daybreak and we all get .4 to .6 in qpf it's a plowable storm IMO.

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8 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

If it comes late morning into the afternoon they may be right though even mid-day roads will get covered with over 1" an hour rates.  If it starts before daybreak and we all get .4 to .6 in qpf it's a plowable storm IMO.

Yes roads are going to be cold.   Im 24/16 currently.    7-8a start is a high impact event.   If it were coming in at 4p then id agree with little road stickage 

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1 hour ago, pirates21 said:

C’mon man...it’s not that bad around here. We have great outdoor activities..biking and hiking, skiing, boating, hunting/fishing. We have one of the nicest minor league parks in baseball. Yeah there’s some marginal people around but where isn’t that? And it’s a pretty safe place to live. Good schools and a very nice PSU Altoona campus. Great shopping , restaurants and taverns. Check us out some time. You’ll like it..lol

 

I’ve only been one night at a stay at the Ramada there for a work meeting about a decade ago. My room had a hot tub in the corner by the bed with mirrored ceiling and walls. That’s my only knowledge of Altoona outside the Curve. 

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On 2/20/2021 at 5:05 PM, MAG5035 said:

This looks like a quick hitting advisory type event, like a 2-3" scattered 4" type deal for most with perhaps more frequent higher amounts (4-6") a better possibility in the Laurels, I-80 corridor, and Poconos. Also need to consider the possibility of a weak spot in the south central counties between I-99 and I-81 (Bedford, Fulton, Franklin, maybe southern half of Huntingdon, etc.) where could only be a 1-2" type snowfall. Low stays NW of PA on a general westerly flow so that typically invites the probability of some downsloping in that aforementioned area, and it has been showing up on most model guidance. Could only be 1-2" in the LSV as well, and I'll explain that below. 

Timing and temps are another concern, esp LSV below the turnpike. This appears to be a late morning to late afternoon/early evening hit, so rates better be good there with marginal low level/surface temps. I often find that after about the 2nd week of February or so it's like flipping a switch with respect to solar input (ie the sun angle)...not yet with heavier and/or cold storms, but with clear days and light events with marginal temps (specifically ones in the middle of the day). NAM once again the warmest, bringing mixed up into the LSV. Showing ZR as primary p-type but I would imagine any icing would be limited in scope if it were in fact liquid precip. And considering how thermals have went in the other two events this past week (even though the M/D simultaneously got their 4-6" of snow and still had mixing all the way up through MDT with Thur), I'm inclined to seriously consider the NAM in that regard. So ideally, a good shot of heavy precip up front would at least secure getting a couple of inches. Ratios might be <10:1 as well. Kuchera maps have actually looked a bit worse than the 10:1 maps, and while Kuchera method applies a fairly simple algorithm for calculating the ratios it is generally picking up that the temps 850mb to surface are a bit marginal. 

Bringing this post back up from yesterday as my thought's really haven't changed too much on it and neither has guidance. Still seeing the weak spot in the aformentioned part of the south-central between I-81 and I-99. Still should see at least a quick 1-2" up front there though.   

Biggest thing is this does look to take the whole LSV as a period of snow up front and how aggressive the rates are is going to ultimately determine impacts and accumulations. Sped up a tad too, with this looking to get into the Sus Valley by mid-morning so if it comes in gangbusters it's obviously going to screw the roads up pretty good. A couple degrees colder in the low levels might be enough to realize 10:1 instead of <10:1 ratios so all of the Sus Valley looking pretty solid on that 2-3" scattered 4". The wave of snowfall is probably done in 4-6 hrs tops, with any lingering precip east of the mountains likely in the form of some scattered showers later in the afternoon. 

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CTP bumped up the Advisory amounts. Here is the Advisory for the counties for west of the Susquehanna.

Winter Weather Advisory

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service State College PA
827 PM EST Sun Feb 21 2021

PAZ006-012-018-019-025>028-034>037-041-045-046-049-050-056-063-
064-221400-
/O.CON.KCTP.WW.Y.0017.210222T1100Z-210222T1800Z/
Potter-Northern Clinton-Northern Centre-Southern Centre-Blair-
Huntingdon-Mifflin-Juniata-Bedford-Fulton-Franklin-Tioga-
Northern Lycoming-Southern Clinton-Southern Lycoming-Union-Snyder-
Perry-Cumberland-Adams-
Including the cities of Coudersport, Renovo, Philipsburg,
State College, Altoona, Huntingdon, Mount Union, Lewistown,
Mifflintown, Bedford, McConnellsburg, Chambersburg, Mansfield,
Wellsboro, Trout Run, Lock Haven, Williamsport, Lewisburg,
Selinsgrove, Newport, Carlisle, and Gettysburg
827 PM EST Sun Feb 21 2021

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM TO 1 PM
EST MONDAY...

* WHAT...Snow expected. Total accumulations of 2 to 4 inches.

* WHERE...Portions of central Pennsylvania.

* WHEN...Snow will overspread most of the area between 630 am and
  830 am, then briefly fall heavily before tapering off by noon.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous
  conditions could impact the morning commute.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...One inch per hour snow rates are possible
  between 9 and 11 am.

 

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Here is the bumped up Advisory from The Susquehanna on east, including Harrisburg, Lancaster & York and  @Voyager !

Winter Weather Advisory

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service State College PA
827 PM EST Sun Feb 21 2021

PAZ042-051>053-057>059-065-066-221400-
/O.CON.KCTP.WW.Y.0017.210222T1300Z-210222T2000Z/
Sullivan-Montour-Northumberland-Columbia-Dauphin-Schuylkill-
Lebanon-York-Lancaster-
Including the cities of Laporte, Danville, Sunbury, Shamokin,
Bloomsburg, Berwick, Harrisburg, Hershey, Pottsville, Lebanon,
York, and Lancaster
827 PM EST Sun Feb 21 2021

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM TO 3 PM
EST MONDAY...

* WHAT...Snow expected. Total accumulations of 3 to 5 inches.

* WHERE...Portions of central Pennsylvania.

* WHEN...Snow will overspread most of the area around 9 am, then
  briefly fall heavily before tapering off by early afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...One inch per hour snow rates are possible
  around 11 am to noon.

 

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7 minutes ago, Storm Clouds said:

I really hope school districts make the right decision in the morning...this thing sounds like it could come in hot and heavy! I’m worried that if they wake up and see it’s not snowing yet, they won’t cancel! 

Most are closed up here already. 

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10 hours ago, MAG5035 said:

I did just that not too long ago, it definitely didn’t disappoint haha. It really sticks out with the clear skies today, I wish I could load the full quality pics on here. It’s always wild the difference 4 miles and 1100’ of elevation makes. 
 

Top of Wopsononock Mtn west of Altoona
 

05A348F1-247B-4C0D-9CBA-6076194C4B24.thumb.jpeg.3d3c0b82d6c0a9e9e1a23a2345d45ad3.jpeg76E7E8DD-07E2-41C4-9F5A-E5704AC989AB.thumb.jpeg.2e6b29c3e9b485a76763dc05bbadfa47.jpeg36CD9C5E-9509-4E99-873D-BA0E8AEA2120.thumb.jpeg.3a92801fcda0ff80fb5266251eb12740.jpegBC1BBAE0-0FC1-4388-BDCF-71A2C7B4870B.thumb.jpeg.9afd145ecc179a73cc9d68c3a9d127b3.jpeg7D289DED-D098-4D8E-8372-5AA6A55A86C2.thumb.jpeg.48ace880256cbc9e9d04fb6a44434457.jpeg9FD908FC-28F5-4085-BD07-4443F9CFAA72.thumb.jpeg.225509594965b6e135fb81b306fb6234.jpeg


 

 

Never knew that many people lived up there, impressive. Nice pics MAG. I bet the Buckhorn looked a lot like that at some point.

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WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM TO 3 PM EST MONDAY... * WHAT...Snow expected. Total accumulations of 3 to 5 inches. * WHERE...Portions of central Pennsylvania. * WHEN...Snow will overspread most of the area around 9 am, then briefly fall heavily before tapering off by early afternoon. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...One inch per hour snow rates are possible around 11 am to noon. it was 1-3 inchs around 8pm 

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