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Central PA - Winter 2020/2021 Part 2


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I wish we had a special CPA thread that was locked, except for posts sharing useful links to models/data, links to educational materials, reports, worthwhile multimedia.

Anyways, I implore everyone to spend at least 10 mins and look through this PowerPoint turned PDF by the WPC so aptly named “Snow forecasting”.

Especially pertinent is it’s information regarding boundary layer issues, snow flake growth & aggregation, mescoscale banding.

It’s also a great review of basic issues

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/research/snowfcst/snow.pdf


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1 hour ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

It looks like most models today have the majority of CTP getting 1 to 3 inches of snow on Monday.

I'm thinking some impressive rates for a brief period will occur . With this warm front  banging into what's left of our cold air. Hopefully some areas see like 1-2" hour rates briefly.  I'm thinking someone in central and esp eastern Pa if I had to guess ...probably where the best lift will be .( hope its along the m/d line :whistle:) And as @psuhoffman mentioned earlier there could be a little wave along that front that energies things :weenie:

 

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Larry Cosgrove:

This has been a strange week for me. And for many of you, I am certain.

When you review sensible weather since last Friday, you will see that the onslaught of bitter cold was probably the worst since 1899. It felt like I was in Kansas or Iowa again. All kinds of misery occurred, and of course everything connected with the once in 120 year cold snap turned into a political football. The worst part, a rumor was spread that winter was absolutely over in most of the U.S., and lots of irritated or bewildered people bought into it.

That is the tune set for your Friday night. It is cold, but will improve for a week or so before we have to deal with a new Arctic surge across the eastern two-thirds of the U.S. You will see stronger warming as we get to April. But for now, do not let your guard down anywhere but California or most of the Southeast.

There. I feel better. Have a nice weekend, wherever you are! :)

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31 minutes ago, anotherman said:

Larry Cosgrove:

This has been a strange week for me. And for many of you, I am certain.

When you review sensible weather since last Friday, you will see that the onslaught of bitter cold was probably the worst since 1899. It felt like I was in Kansas or Iowa again. All kinds of misery occurred, and of course everything connected with the once in 120 year cold snap turned into a political football. The worst part, a rumor was spread that winter was absolutely over in most of the U.S., and lots of irritated or bewildered people bought into it.

That is the tune set for your Friday night. It is cold, but will improve for a week or so before we have to deal with a new Arctic surge across the eastern two-thirds of the U.S. You will see stronger warming as we get to April. But for now, do not let your guard down anywhere but California or most of the Southeast.

There. I feel better. Have a nice weekend, wherever you are! :)

I have heard more than one person suggest winter was over.  Sort of strange.  It's almost like people are wishing it away.  Someone told me we are hitting 70 next week?  Lol

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52 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

I'm thinking some impressive rates for a brief period will occur . With this warm front  banging into what's left of our cold air. Hopefully some areas see like 1-2" hour rates briefly.  I'm thinking someone in central and esp eastern Pa if I had to guess ...probably where the best lift will be .( hope its along the m/d line :whistle:) And as @psuhoffman mentioned earlier there could be a little wave along that front that energies things :weenie:

 

MD line has been the place to be this winter.  We are both probably near 40 plus inches now.

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12 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

I have heard more than one person suggest winter was over.  Sort of strange.  It's almost like people are wishing it away.  Someone told me we are hitting 70 next week?  Lol

I haven't hit 50 since 1st week of December.  There hasn't been a torch all season. 

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13 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

MD line has been the place to be this winter.  We are both probably near 40 plus inches now.

38"  after today here . Carroll county averages 32"-40" a season but 20 year average is closer to 35"-45"+ . It's been a very good season here imo. 

26" inches alone in February and it's only February 19th .

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13 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

38"  after today here . Carroll county averages 32"-40" a season but 20 year average is closer to 35"-45"+ . It's been a very good season here imo. 

26" inches alone in February and it's only February 19th .

We are near 50" but I had the benefit of that crazy "deathband"/enhancement this month.  22"  in two days.

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Been posted before but still funny...

August 15
Moved to a new home in Pennsylvania . It's so beautiful here.
      The lake to the north looks so majestic. I can hardly
      wait to see it snow covered. I'm going to love it here.
October 14 
Pennsylvania is definitely the  most beautiful place on earth. The leaves have turned all the colors and
      shades  of red and orange. Went for a ride through the park and saw
      some  deer. They are so graceful. Certainly they are the most
      wonderful animals on earth. This must be paradise, I LOVE IT HERE.
November  10 
Deer season will start soon. I can't imagine anyone wanting to kill such a gorgeous animal, hope it will
      snow soon. I love it here. Those red and orange leaves have covered
      my yard. Looks like a magnificent multi-colored carpet. HOW BEAUTIFUL.
      Raking and cleaning up the yard will be an opportunity for invigorating
      exercise in the cool crisp air.
 November  15 -
Ah, more leaves and more exercise.
November  18 - 
Jesus, still more leaves. Guess it's best to
      wait until  they've all fallen before I rake again.
November  25 - 
Finally, all of the trees lost their leaves
      and  today's final raking it's over for this season. Chiropractor
      suggested I use a lawn maintenance service next year. Only four blisters
      became infected. Should probably remember to use gloves.
November  30 -
What the f --k? Where did all of those leaves come from? A little wind last night and the lawn is covered
      again. Oh well, they'll  just have to wait until spring.
       December  12 -
It snowed last night, FINALLY. Woke up to find
      everything  blanketed in white. It looks like a postcard. We
      went  outside and cleaned the snow off the steps and shoveled the
      driveway. Had  a snowball fight (I won) and when the snowplow came
      by and we had to shovel the end of the driveway again. What a beautiful
      place. I Love Pennsylvania
December  14 -
More snow last night, I love it. The snowplow
      did his  trick  to the driveway again.
I Love it here.
December 19 -
More snow again last night. Can't get out of the
      driveway to get to work. I'm
      exhausted from shoveling. F---ing snowplow.
December 22 -
More of that white sh-t fell again last night. A s if dealing with the leaves weren't bad enough, now
      I've got blisters all over my hands from shoveling, must remember to wear
      gloves. I think the snowplow hides around the corner and waits until I'm finished
      shoveling the driveway. The a--hole.
       December  25 -
Merry Christmas. More frigging snow. If I ever get
      my  hands on that son-of-a-bitch who drives the snowplow. I swear
      I'll kill the bastard. Don't know why they don't use more salt on the
      roads to melt the f---ing ice.
December  27 -
More white sh-t last night. Have been inside for
      three days except for shoveling out the driveway after that plow goes
      through every  time.  F---ing gloves got wet and then froze
      on  my hands.  Doctor said it was just a mild case of
      frostbite, disfiguration is probably only temporary. Can't go anywhere,
      car is stuck in a mountain of white sh-t. The weatherman says to expect
      another 10 inches of the sh-t tonight. Do you know how many shovels full
      of snow 10 inches is? 
December  28 -
The f---ing weatherman was wrong. We got 34 inches of that white sh-t. A t this rate it won't melt 'till summer. The
      plow  got stuck up the road and the bastard came to the door
      and  asked to borrow a shovel. After I told him I'd already broken
      six of them shoveling all the sh-t he pushed into the driveway, I
      broke my last one on his  f---ing head.
January  4 - 
Finally got out of the house today. Went to the store to get food and on the way back I hit a damned deer that
      ran in front of my car. Did about $3000 damage f---ing beast should
      be killed. Wish the hunters had killed them all last November. 
May 3 - 
Took the car to the garage in town. The thing is rusting out from all the f---ing salt they put all
      over the roads. 
May 10 -
Moved to The Villages in Florida . I can't imagine why anyone in their right mind would ever live in that
      God-forsaken state of Pennsylvania

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6 hours ago, 2001kx said:

Been posted before but still funny...

August 15
Moved to a new home in Pennsylvania . It's so beautiful here.
      The lake to the north looks so majestic. I can hardly
      wait to see it snow covered. I'm going to love it here.
October 14 
Pennsylvania is definitely the  most beautiful place on earth. The leaves have turned all the colors and
      shades  of red and orange. Went for a ride through the park and saw
      some  deer. They are so graceful. Certainly they are the most
      wonderful animals on earth. This must be paradise, I LOVE IT HERE.
November  10 
Deer season will start soon. I can't imagine anyone wanting to kill such a gorgeous animal, hope it will
      snow soon. I love it here. Those red and orange leaves have covered
      my yard. Looks like a magnificent multi-colored carpet. HOW BEAUTIFUL.
      Raking and cleaning up the yard will be an opportunity for invigorating
      exercise in the cool crisp air.
 November  15 -
Ah, more leaves and more exercise.
November  18 - 
Jesus, still more leaves. Guess it's best to
      wait until  they've all fallen before I rake again.
November  25 - 
Finally, all of the trees lost their leaves
      and  today's final raking it's over for this season. Chiropractor
      suggested I use a lawn maintenance service next year. Only four blisters
      became infected. Should probably remember to use gloves.
November  30 -
What the f --k? Where did all of those leaves come from? A little wind last night and the lawn is covered
      again. Oh well, they'll  just have to wait until spring.
       December  12 -
It snowed last night, FINALLY. Woke up to find
      everything  blanketed in white. It looks like a postcard. We
      went  outside and cleaned the snow off the steps and shoveled the
      driveway. Had  a snowball fight (I won) and when the snowplow came
      by and we had to shovel the end of the driveway again. What a beautiful
      place. I Love Pennsylvania
December  14 -
More snow last night, I love it. The snowplow
      did his  trick  to the driveway again.
I Love it here.
December 19 -
More snow again last night. Can't get out of the
      driveway to get to work. I'm
      exhausted from shoveling. F---ing snowplow.
December 22 -
More of that white sh-t fell again last night. A s if dealing with the leaves weren't bad enough, now
      I've got blisters all over my hands from shoveling, must remember to wear
      gloves. I think the snowplow hides around the corner and waits until I'm finished
      shoveling the driveway. The a--hole.
       December  25 -
Merry Christmas. More frigging snow. If I ever get
      my  hands on that son-of-a-bitch who drives the snowplow. I swear
      I'll kill the bastard. Don't know why they don't use more salt on the
      roads to melt the f---ing ice.
December  27 -
More white sh-t last night. Have been inside for
      three days except for shoveling out the driveway after that plow goes
      through every  time.  F---ing gloves got wet and then froze
      on  my hands.  Doctor said it was just a mild case of
      frostbite, disfiguration is probably only temporary. Can't go anywhere,
      car is stuck in a mountain of white sh-t. The weatherman says to expect
      another 10 inches of the sh-t tonight. Do you know how many shovels full
      of snow 10 inches is? 
December  28 -
The f---ing weatherman was wrong. We got 34 inches of that white sh-t. A t this rate it won't melt 'till summer. The
      plow  got stuck up the road and the bastard came to the door
      and  asked to borrow a shovel. After I told him I'd already broken
      six of them shoveling all the sh-t he pushed into the driveway, I
      broke my last one on his  f---ing head.
January  4 - 
Finally got out of the house today. Went to the store to get food and on the way back I hit a damned deer that
      ran in front of my car. Did about $3000 damage f---ing beast should
      be killed. Wish the hunters had killed them all last November. 
May 3 - 
Took the car to the garage in town. The thing is rusting out from all the f---ing salt they put all
      over the roads. 
May 10 -
Moved to The Villages in Florida . I can't imagine why anyone in their right mind would ever live in that
      God-forsaken state of Pennsylvania

Yuck, The Villages.  It was all falling into place until that ended up being end game.  

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Timing on Monday will be interesting.   Looks like the general average is mid morning which will be less of an issue but if you take the common thought that it gets here a few hours before modeled and at least one model (Rgem) has it starting before or near daybreak, for the western 2/3 of PA, it leaves the door open for schools to be closed 3 days in a row and people to call out again.  LOL.

 

Several of the schools around here (some in MD) are cancelling virtual and in place on these snow days.

 

 

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CTP seems to be interested in the Monday snow chance. Very nice write up this morning

“The most interesting weather will be Monday, mainly in the morning and early aftn. A fast-moving low just now coming on- shore in the western U.S. will be arriving. Clouds will increase Sunday night, with a dusting of snow possible as an arm of warm advective precip crosses the NW half/two-thirds of the CWA overnight. The sfc trough which crosses the area will bring enough moisture to worry about a wint wx advy for a good portion of the area. The fast forward speed and daylight passage of the main slug of precip will be negatives for higher snow totals. The timing of the precip is about 3-4 hours different between the GFS and NAM at this point. The faster GFS would put down much of the precip very early in the day (some before sunrise in the wrn half). This would make it more likely all snow than a mix or plain rain. The slower NAM keeps the precip snow for a long time, as well, despite precip not arriving in the Lower Susq just an hour or so before Noon. The precip rates may also dictate what the p-type will be. Models all pumping out 0.15-0.4" of liquid equiv of pretty much all snow in just 3-5 hrs as the main wave of precip moves thru in the morning. That means 1"/hr rates are possible. But, the wind will not be all that gusty (S <10MPH and no real gusts) as it passes thru. Have nudged maxes down a deg on Monday looking at the cloud cover and snowfall. Snow amounts may end up 2-4" for lots of places, some higher amounts possible in the NW and lower amounts possible in the south-central mountains. The precip lingering behind the first shove of moisture could turn to rain in the SE, but I could easily see 1-2" there, and higher numbers are poss judging from NAM QPF of 0.4" despite SLRs in the 8-10:1 range. Since this event could negatively impact the Mon AM rush, this will need some close attention. Upright instability during the first/main push of precip on Monday is hardly noticeable if any exists. Some CAPE shows up in the aftn across the NW half of the area when the real trough moves through. So, if there is some heating, there could be some squalls there later in the day. But, additional accums will likely be less than in the morning hours.”

 

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Just now, Blizzard of 93 said:

We will have cold leading in to the event Sunday night and early Monday, but by the time the heavier precip arrives the surface temps & 850s do get more marginal.
Good rates should be able to keep the heavier precip as snow.

933604BB-4976-4160-92A1-77901EC804FC.png

 

I suspect good rates will lead to dynamic cooling and bring most down under freezing if it happens sometime mid morning or before. Roads will be fine Monday Pm though.    A decent haul Monday helps protect the pack a little from the upcoming 50ish temps. :-).  Hopefully this one does not go off the rails

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3 minutes ago, pawatch said:

Thanks Bubb! Good maps to start the morning.

I am past 50" of snow for the year now. Dusting overnight 

Congrats!

The LSV is now in stats padding mode as most of us are above normal snow for the season. We still have about 5 weeks to score some more. Monday will give us another chance.

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11 hours ago, 2001kx said:

Been posted before but still funny...

August 15
Moved to a new home in Pennsylvania . It's so beautiful here.
      The lake to the north looks so majestic. I can hardly
      wait to see it snow covered. I'm going to love it here.
October 14 
Pennsylvania is definitely the  most beautiful place on earth. The leaves have turned all the colors and
      shades  of red and orange. Went for a ride through the park and saw
      some  deer. They are so graceful. Certainly they are the most
      wonderful animals on earth. This must be paradise, I LOVE IT HERE.
 

Here's the video version of that...lol

 

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