Central PA - Winter 2020/2021 Part 2

[Blizzard of 93]

The 12z Euro likes the idea of some Monday snow for Most of us. It falls in line with the CTP expected snow map from this morning.

 

[MAG5035]

I went up to Blue Knob in the afternoon/evening yesterday and it was quite a sight up there. Probably a general 2’+ natural snowpack around the mountain plus the 1/2”+ of freezing rain from the ice storm and rime ice (esp above ~2600ft) that never melted before it snowed again the last couple days. 

[Cashtown_Coop]

@MAG5035 Nice pics.   I went for a drive yesterday and at 1600ft ran into what I know now after looking at your pics rime ice on the trees.    It almost reminded me of hoar frost

[Bubbler86]

Quite a bite of blowing and drifting today.  Roads were a bit treacherous at times (back roads). 

[MAG5035]

2 minutes ago, Cashtown_Coop said:

@MAG5035 Nice pics.   I went for a drive yesterday and at 1600ft ran into what I know now after looking at your pics rime ice on the trees.    It almost reminded me of hoar frost

 

That looks like a lot of snow down there too at that elevation. Yea it was a combination of rime ice near the summit which is in clouds a good bit (over 3100' at the top) but alot of it was also the new snow sticking directly to the iced trees too. It looked like they had a significant amount of ice up there from that ice storm even for their standards, and since there was never any strong warm push at what is essentially the 925mb level at the top of the mountain there, most of it didn't melt. 

[Blizzard of 93]

@MAG5035

What do you think of the Monday snow potential?

[Cashtown_Coop]

5 minutes ago, MAG5035 said:

That looks like a lot of snow down there too at that elevation. Yea it was a combination of rime ice near the summit which is in clouds a good bit (over 3100' at the top) but alot of it was also the new snow sticking directly to the iced trees too. It looked like they had a significant amount of ice up there from that ice storm even for their standards, and since there was never any strong warm push at what is essentially the 925mb level at the top of the mountain there, most of it didn't melt. 

The trees had a layer of freezing rain underneath then a crystal like structure on the outside.   You’re right , 12-15” snow depth which is good for Adams County.   6” depth down in Cashtown 

[Blizzard of 93]

I would sign up for the 18z RGEM for Monday!

 

[MAG5035]

3 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

@MAG5035

What do you think of the Monday snow potential?

This looks like a quick hitting advisory type event, like a 2-3" scattered 4" type deal for most with perhaps more frequent higher amounts (4-6") a better possibility in the Laurels, I-80 corridor, and Poconos. Also need to consider the possibility of a weak spot in the south central counties between I-99 and I-81 (Bedford, Fulton, Franklin, maybe southern half of Huntingdon, etc.) where could only be a 1-2" type snowfall. Low stays NW of PA on a general westerly flow so that typically invites the probability of some downsloping in that aforementioned area, and it has been showing up on most model guidance. Could only be 1-2" in the LSV as well, and I'll explain that below. 

Timing and temps are another concern, esp LSV below the turnpike. This appears to be a late morning to late afternoon/early evening hit, so rates better be good there with marginal low level/surface temps. I often find that after about the 2nd week of February or so it's like flipping a switch with respect to solar input (ie the sun angle)...not yet with heavier and/or cold storms, but with clear days and light events with marginal temps (specifically ones in the middle of the day). NAM once again the warmest, bringing mixed up into the LSV. Showing ZR as primary p-type but I would imagine any icing would be limited in scope if it were in fact liquid precip. And considering how thermals have went in the other two events this past week (even though the M/D simultaneously got their 4-6" of snow and still had mixing all the way up through MDT with Thur), I'm inclined to seriously consider the NAM in that regard. So ideally, a good shot of heavy precip up front would at least secure getting a couple of inches. Ratios might be <10:1 as well. Kuchera maps have actually looked a bit worse than the 10:1 maps, and while Kuchera method applies a fairly simple algorithm for calculating the ratios it is generally picking up that the temps 850mb to surface are a bit marginal. 

[pirates21]

1 hour ago, MAG5035 said:

I went up to Blue Knob in the afternoon/evening yesterday and it was quite a sight up there. Probably a general 2’+ natural snowpack around the mountain plus the 1/2”+ of freezing rain from the ice storm and rime ice (esp above ~2600ft) that never melted before it snowed again the last couple days. 

Great pics. You should take a ride up top of Wopsy. Looks similar to Blue Knob. Really beautiful with the snow on ice covering everything. The large pine trees covered with snow and ice are gorgeous 

[Blizzard of 93]

The 18z Euro has the snow moving in slightly earlier than previous runs and gets steady snow from Harrisburg & York on west in the LSV by 10am Monday.

it then delivers 2 to 3 inches of snow to all of CTP.

[CoralRed]

The 8:02 update of the Area Forecast Discussion for Williamsport says:

Models hint at a potential ugly start to
March, but that could change by then.

What's ugly about them?  

[Bubbler86]

Wwa's probably issued tomorrow as the start time keeps moving up. Canadians drop half a foot just to our south...probably overdone but still....

[Bubbler86]

2 hours ago, CoralRed said:

The 8:02 update of the Area Forecast Discussion for Williamsport says:

Models hint at a potential ugly start to
March, but that could change by then.

What's ugly about them?  

The 18z gfs had a lot of rain, post-frontal snow and a cold snap to start the new month.

[CoralRed]

Bubbler86,

Hi.  Thanks for responding to my post.  I hate to tell you but you didn't say what you intended to say, I am sure.  Go reread it and correct it.  

[anotherman]

The 18z gfs had a lot of rain, post anal snow and a cold snap to start the new month.

Sounds painful.

[Bubbler86]

6 minutes ago, anotherman said:

Sounds painful.

Lol.   Fixed except for your reply! 

[Bubbler86]

11 minutes ago, CoralRed said:

Bubbler86,

Hi.  Thanks for responding to my post.  I hate to tell you but you didn't say what you intended to say, I am sure.  Go reread it and correct it.  

I even put the proper dash between post and frontal and the phone still screwed it up.  

[anotherman]

Lol.   Fixed except for your reply! 

I laughed. Obviously an autocorrect.

[Bubbler86]

Just now, anotherman said:

I laughed. Obviously an autocorrect.

I laughed too but it certainly sends home the importance of proof reading emails, especially worked related.  

[Blizzard of 93]

CTP put this map out for tomorrow.

 

[Blizzard of 93]

Good discussion from CTP this morning.

“A significant but migratory trough aloft will swing through on Monday. The sfc pattern will feature a deepening low crossing the Upper Great Lakes, pushing a front/trough through later in the day on Monday. While on arm of warm advection/flurries passes overhead tonight, a pre-frontal trough passing thru 10Z-19Z will be the main player. A good 2-4hrs of snow is likely about everywhere during that time frame. The forecasts have been solid on timing and intensity of snow with the trough, arriving before sunrise in the west and between 9-11AM in the east. The GFS continues to be faster with the system, by about 3 hrs. All is very consistent otherwise. There is some enhancement seen in the snowfall rates over the west in the morning with favorable forcing and frontogenesis, and in the east in the afternoon thanks to some instability. HREF supports some 1"+/hr rates in many spots.

The QPF is impressive for a fast-moving system, with many places 0.25-0.35" for 12 hrs. The air takes a bit to moisten up overnight, esp NE. The snow will probably turn to, or at least mix with, some rain later in the day thanks to the S/SW wind and breaks after the initial surge of snow/clouds. The maxes will be in the 30s, and perhaps 40F somewhere in the SC mtn valleys. SLRs do change quite a bit thru the event dropping off as we warm on the whole. Lots of drying in the aftn over the S. However, some mixed precip could linger in the far SE.

Thinking is that we will eventually need an advy for much of the area for a widespread 2-4". However, SLRs, amounts and p-type are all still in question for the south and fast movement is not helpful when looking for big SF totals. The typical snow shadow down wind of the Laurels could keep them under 2" total, let alone 3". There could even be more snow in the Lower Susq than the S-Central mtns. Thus, after collaboration with the neighboring offices, we will continue to hold off on any advys and allow the dayshift to gather more wisdom and confidence.”

 

[pawatch]

Good morning 

10 degrees here this morning. 

Thanks Bubb & Blizz looks like tomorrow is a go. I would take about 1/2 dozen of these events.

About every 2-3 days I'm removing snow.

Mag some awesome pics of your trip up on the mountain! I would imagine the ski resorts aren't doing bad this year.

[Bubbler86]

Snowing through majority of the state by 8AM on the HRRR.  Early arrival and caved roads.

 

[Cashtown_Coop]

Watch this trend the right way the last 24 hours. Nam suggest the lsv gets a quick .3 to .5” of qpf.    With rates and an earlier start we could be looking at a 3-6” hit 

Im going with 1” for Cashtown with 6” reported by trainingtime.

[Superstorm]

Watch this trend the right way the last 24 hours. Nam suggest the lsv gets a quick .3 to .5” of qpf.    With rates and an earlier start we could be looking at a 3-6” hit 
Im going with 1” for Cashtown with 6” reported by trainingtime.

Real quick hitter. Could come in hot and heavy. Very interesting system.


.

[Cashtown_Coop]

3 minutes ago, Superstorm said:

Real quick hitter. Could come in hot and heavy. Very interesting system.


.

Looks like a triple point with low development.  That should provide plenty of lift.   If the ball rolls the right way, lsv could be looking at a low end warning event 

[Storm Clouds]

Going to be very interesting to see what schools do around here tomorrow. I’m a first grade teacher myself and my district has been in person since August. When we have snow days this year, we teach from home so the kids aren’t even getting “snow days” anymore! That is so frustrating to me , but that’s another conversation lol...

We had virtual learning snow days both Thursday and Friday...this could be the third snow day in a row! Something tells me though many schools are going to try to get to school tomorrow because of that fact...

Also, schools tend to follow local TV meteorologists...and both WGAL and ABC 27 down here are underplaying this.

[Bubbler86]

26 minutes ago, Cashtown_Coop said:

Looks like a triple point with low development.  That should provide plenty of lift.   If the ball rolls the right way, lsv could be looking at a low end warning evyep

Yep, potential here for more than it is being hyped up.

[Bubbler86]

20 minutes ago, Storm Clouds said:

Going to be very interesting to see what schools do around here tomorrow. I’m a first grade teacher myself and my district has been in person since August. When we have snow days this year, we teach from home so the kids aren’t even getting “snow days” anymore! That is so frustrating to me , but that’s another conversation lol...

We had virtual learning snow days both Thursday and Friday...this could be the third snow day in a row! Something tells me though many schools are going to try to get to school tomorrow because of that fact...

Also, schools tend to follow local TV meteorologists...and both WGAL and ABC 27 down here are underplaying this.

I had commented about the coming quandary a few days.  Not cool to have busses rolling with snow falling and covered roads.