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MAG5035

Central PA - Jan 31 to Feb 2 Winter Storm

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41 minutes ago, MAG5035 said:

I don't know why we're all so feisty in here tonight.

Here's the thing with some of these crazy amounts coming out of models like the RGEM. If someone in eastern PA sees 40-55" from this storm I'll buy everyone in here a beer lol. To me, nailing down this deform band late in the storm means trying to locate an area that sees perhaps up to two feet or so but likely more of a general 18-24" bullseye area. Other than that, this is within a zone where basically every regular in here including 2001kx and wmsptwx should easily see a warning event and I think this is mostly a 10-14+" swath for everyone under I-80 (and probably above it too eastern third to half of PA). We'll have to watch for the slot and perhaps a slight bit of mixing toward the MD border, but I don't think this kills totals all that much by the end if it happens. We should have snows flung back into PA for a good while even if we don't get the intense deform band in our area.

Just popping in so I can join y'all for a free beer. :drunk:

Really just wanted to say good luck, we've had a solid winter so far in the western part of the state, glad to see a storm that looks to have a little something ( in some cases a lot of something) for everyone. 

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1 minute ago, RitualOfTheTrout said:

Just popping in so I can join y'all for a free beer. :drunk:

Really just wanted to say good luck, we've had a solid winter so far in the western part of the state, glad to see a storm that looks to have a little something ( in some cases a lot of something) for everyone. 

Lol, good luck over there too. Looks like Pittsburgh's going to be getting started within the next couple hours. 

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54 minutes ago, CarlislePaWx said:

My earlier comment was really more of an observation rather than personal criticism.  And I'm definitely not one to ruffle feathers.  @Itstrainingtimeyou are totally correct and I have no problems with your reply to me.  After the event is over and we have all the final measurements I would love to ask Tom about his forecast reasoning one way or the other.

Thank you. I respect you as one of the finest gentlemen on here. 

I went into the mid-Atlantic thread the other night and told them what a great thread we have with a bunch of amazing people. All I ask for is that we respect each other. Plain and simple. I started a big thing when all I was trying to do was keep things above the line. I speak up to defend people when I feel they aren't being treated well and I will not stop doing so. I guess that's why my career is in HR.

Carry on. I'm finished with this and ready to move forward.

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Another areawide Euro thrashing at 0z. I-81 corridor from Harrisburg to Scranton roughly being the bullseye, although most of eastern PA is 20"+ on Kuchera and Euro hasn't yet relinquished the snow completely all the way through hr 69.

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16 minutes ago, MAG5035 said:

Another areawide Euro thrashing at 0z. I-81 corridor from Harrisburg to Scranton roughly being the bullseye, although most of eastern PA is 20"+ on Kuchera and Euro hasn't yet relinquished the snow completely all the way through hr 69.

I'll certainly take it although the dry slot makes it here along with some rain. Just 50 miles or so SE can make it even more awesome though lol. 

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Good morning!!!

it looks like CTP escalated the Winter Storm Warning by bumping snow totals up a few inches. Hopefully this continues to bump up as the storm gets underway,

Winter Storm Warning

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service State College PA 452 AM EST Sun Jan 31 2021 PAZ019-024>028-033>036-045-049-050-052-056-057-063>065-312200- /O.CAN.KCTP.WS.W.0002.000000T0000Z-210202T1000Z/ /O.NEW.KCTP.WS.W.0003.210131T1000Z-210202T1000Z/ Southern Centre-Cambria-Blair-Huntingdon-Mifflin-Juniata-Somerset- Bedford-Fulton-Franklin-Southern Clinton-Union-Snyder- Northumberland-Perry-Dauphin-Cumberland-Adams-York- Including the cities of State College, Johnstown, Altoona, Huntingdon, Mount Union, Lewistown, Mifflintown, Somerset, Bedford, McConnellsburg, Chambersburg, Lock Haven, Lewisburg, Selinsgrove, Sunbury, Shamokin, Newport, Harrisburg, Hershey, Carlisle, Gettysburg, and York 452 AM EST Sun Jan 31 2021 ...

WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM EST TUESDAY... *

WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 8 to 14 inches, with the highest amounts north and east of Harrisburg. A light glaze of ice is also likely from Harrisburg southward. *

WHERE...Portions of central Pennsylvania. *

WHEN...Light snow will overspread the region this morning and continue through tonight. The snow could become heavier on Monday and potentially mix with ice from Harrisburg southward. Expect the snow to taper off by late Monday night. *

IMPACTS...Travel could be difficult today through Monday evening.

 

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Here is the CTP  Warning for the rest of the counties including Lebanon & Lancaster.

Winter Storm Warning

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service State College PA
452 AM EST Sun Jan 31 2021

PAZ042-046-051-053-058-059-066-312200-
/O.CAN.KCTP.WS.W.0002.000000T0000Z-210202T1000Z/
/O.NEW.KCTP.WS.W.0003.210131T1500Z-210202T1000Z/
Sullivan-Southern Lycoming-Montour-Columbia-Schuylkill-Lebanon-
Lancaster-
Including the cities of Laporte, Williamsport, Danville,
Bloomsburg, Berwick, Pottsville, Lebanon, and Lancaster
452 AM EST Sun Jan 31 2021

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 5 AM
EST TUESDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 10 to 14
  inches, with the highest amounts north of Harrisburg. A light
  glaze of ice is likely south of Harrisburg.

* WHERE...Portions of central Pennsylvania.

* WHEN...Light snow will overspread the region late this morning
  and continue through tonight. The snow could become heavier on
  Monday and potentially mix with ice south of Harrisburg. Expect
  the snow to taper by late Monday night.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be difficult today through Monday
  evening.

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Anything over 20 inches here in Tamaqua is uncharted territory...for me, anyway. The area might have had more in 1993, since, from what I'm told, had little to no mixing. I'm hoping my wife and friends share pics so I can see from afar how things turn out locally.

Beyond my backyard, I'll be living this one out via all of your keyboards and camera lenses. Enjoy all!

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46 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

The 6z GFS was another CTP crusher.

 

6AED945F-1C49-4BD2-8213-5B38759E438D.png

If this where to verify JNS and I could be top dogs. Its looking like a special day for all good luck  and stay safe. nothing but love from FHS for this EPIC event.

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Miller B are such high anxiety storms the lows and the highs ineradicable,  a true drug no doubt . This storm is no exception .

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any one seeing any thing yet in PA my dewpoint went from 16 down to 11 last time i checked. I dont understand that since i have had returns overhead since midnight. so still dry went from 23 around midnight to 28 at 6am 

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1 minute ago, Ruin said:

any one seeing any thing yet in PA my dewpoint went from 16 down to 11 last time i checked. I dont understand that since i have had returns overhead since midnight. so still dry went from 23 around midnight to 28 at 6am 

I'm hanging steady at 26/14. Did have some virga pass over earlier. 

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I just dont understand with virga overhead most of the night since midnight my dewpoint lowers instead of going up.

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5 minutes ago, Ruin said:

any one seeing any thing yet in PA my dewpoint went from 16 down to 11 last time i checked. I dont understand that since i have had returns overhead since midnight. so still dry went from 23 around midnight to 28 at 6am 

Here in Western PA we've gotten like a coating to quarter/half inch. 

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Just now, Rd9108 said:

Here in Western PA we've gotten like a coating to quarter/half inch. 

how wet or dry is it? does it look powdery ?

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If this where to verify JNS and I could be top dogs. Its looking like a special day for all good luck  and stay safe. nothing but love from FHS for this EPIC event.

Sitting here in the Hershey/Hummelstown area having flashbacks to the Kuchera models before the December bust when 20” was reduced to 9” by pingers and dry slotting.

We will see.

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Hey everyone! Here's a rough idea for my forecast for many in the sub-forum. Yes, it's Mid Atlantic centric, but it still encapsulates a lot of the sub that will be most impacted. The highest area could be low balling if the deform rots overhead. Will be a crazy day tomorrow. I might do a quick and dirty map update for tomorrow as well with more forum coverage. Enjoy the snow later today!

1884666712_SnowForecast1-31to2-1.thumb.png.3d2f4035a1049295fce1bb7b3f9ea1ad.png

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KMDT Snowfall Entries

Canderson                   11.9"     1.04

Cashtown_coop          14.2"     1.18

Mag5035                     15.4"     1.20

Pawatch                       15.4"     1.26

Pasnownut                  15.5"      1.28

Paweather                   16.2"      1.40

Sauss06                      16.5"      1.30

Millvillewx                   16.7"      1.36 

Gosnow                        17.0"     1.30

Bubbler86                    17.8"     1.40

Allweather                   17.9"     1.50

Jns2183                      18.9"      1.44

Blizzardof93               19.2"      1.60

2001kx                         19.3"      1.50

Medmax                       19.3"     1.60

Itstraingtime               20.2"      1.68

GrandmasterB            21.0"      1.70

Whiteout                     22.2"       1.68

Carlisepawx               25.7"       1.93

 

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6 minutes ago, medmax said:


Sitting here in the Hershey/Hummelstown area having flashbacks to the Kuchera models before the December bust when 20” was reduced to 9” by pingers and dry slotting.

We will see.

yes agree miller b  we will wait and see 1 " 2" maybe 33 hopefully alot less for you and alot more for me but the only dry slot is between my wife's knees.

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