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Jan 31st - 33rd Storm Obs and Disco like it's 1979


Bob Chill
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3 minutes ago, BlizzardNole said:

Intensity is typically tied to visibility, with heavy snow being visibility of less than a quarter mile.  I think of heavy snow as about 1 inch per hour.  Not necessarily flake size as sometimes you can have large wet flakes but spaced way apart.

Get this -- NYC could see rates of 2-4 inches at times.  Man to see that.

Oh thanks 

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5 minutes ago, Ruin said:

im surprised the precip field isnt farther northwest since its getting tucked in more.

This is exactly how I feel. Without any further trending of the low, simply with a more robust precip shield we could see something halfway decent tomorrow. 
 

The models just don’t have a handle on this at all. Should be very interesting. 

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3 hours ago, feloniousq said:

How about the model run last night that had both you and me with 9.5”, 6” coming from the WAA? 
 

Any time a WSW fails to verify, it’s a bust, period

Below is last nights 0z EURO you reference valid up until 0z tonight. It absolutely nailed my area so I don’t know what you’re referring to. 
Also, you originally posted a EURO from 6! days ago. Why you’re moving the goalposts from 6 days ago to last nights run is interesting. You’re still wrong but I’ll leave you to learn why. 
8683C757-F1B3-4B68-8EF8-D8474E57E764.png.dc941cddea7ac177e375dbaa95a2480a.png

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This thread has gone to hell, but the GFS para puts the brakes on the Baltimore snow party.    It still wants to bring some accumulating snow to most of central MD and hits the MD/PA border nicely, but it's not doing what the ops GFS is.    Looking closely, the GFS precip field is wacky with a big max on the Jersey Shore and reduced totals for the NYC metro area-  GFS para looks more reasonable and consistent.

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Seriously guys. Stop.  I know how it is when tempers flare...I just had a fight with a troll white knighter 2 nights ago...I moved it to banter.  But I'm the laziest moderator here and yall are making me mad because I have to moderate.  I'm moving the crap posts to banter.  STOP.  NOW.  Seriously.  I'll even add a please in there.   If you want to fight, ok...go to banter.   People in here trying to enjoy the Miller B screwjob and yall in here fighting.

Relax, calm down.  Also, gotta remind yall,  sending threatening PMs is prohibited.    If you want to be around for the next fail next weekend, simmah down. 

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3 minutes ago, high risk said:

This thread has gone to hell, but the GFS para puts the brakes on the Baltimore snow party.    It still wants to bring some accumulating snow to most of central MD and hits the MD/PA border nicely, but it's not doing what the ops GFS is.    Looking closely, the GFS precip field is wacky with a big max on the Jersey Shore and reduced totals for the NYC metro area-  GFS para looks more reasonable and consistent.

Makes sense. I was not around here in 1978 - but the legendary four-day blizzard that clocked Boston - I think from Kocin/Ucinelli when I reviewed that storm Baltimore area picked up around 8 inches, give or take. I am wondering if that was a scenario where just enough banding from the stall north eeked into the area to give them that reading over a period of days. This feels similar - 4 inches from today (over 15 hours) but if Balt City picked up another 2-4 over the next 48 hours it would look more robust 30 years from now than is in the moment...

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I know I’m grasping here. Incoming weenie question: is there any precedent for a coastal surprise where it actually could drop 6 inches at this point or have we solidified the goods are gone? 10%? 20%? Trying to remember when it’s happened. I know 1997 maybe but that was called late the night before. 

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1 minute ago, snowfan said:

CMC just dropped 30 on Wilmington. Seems legit.

You've gotta wonder if this is feedback or what. The Euro just for the sake of seeing it's take is actually something I'll have to wait for now. That's a couple runs of models in a row that showed a big move towards big totals close by. 

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4 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said:

Makes sense. I was not around here in 1978 - but the legendary four-day blizzard that clocked Boston - I think from Kocin/Ucinelli when I reviewed that storm Baltimore area picked up around 8 inches, give or take. I am wondering if that was a scenario where just enough banding from the stall north eeked into the area to give them that reading over a period of days. This feels similar - 4 inches from today (over 15 hours) but if Balt City picked up another 2-4 over the next 48 hours it would look more robust 30 years from now than is in the moment...

I think BWI recorded 8 in 1978 but there was much better results just north of there. Baltimore metro was 12 plus and northern and northeastern suburbs got 14-18.

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3 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said:

Makes sense. I was not around here in 1978 - but the legendary four-day blizzard that clocked Boston - I think from Kocin/Ucinelli when I reviewed that storm Baltimore area picked up around 8 inches, give or take. I am wondering if that was a scenario where just enough banding from the stall north eeked into the area to give them that reading over a period of days. This feels similar - 4 inches from today (over 15 hours) but if Balt City picked up another 2-4 over the next 48 hours it would look more robust 30 years from now than is in the moment...

And tbh temps are cold enough to support this sticking around at least on grassy surfaces. We’re not gonna see any torch that the gfs was showing earlier. These tailing, sweeping bands are exactly what I’ve been thinking about in terms of surprises. 

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