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madwx

February 2021 General Discussion

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This month looks to start out on the mild side with a possible cutter at the end of the first week.  But after that there are signs in the long range models that much below normal temps could be in the cards for the 2nd and 3rd weeks of February.

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February looks interesting for the northern plains. La nina southeast ridge will effectively end winter for most of us in this forum. Im ready for an early spring. Its been a while 

wut.


.

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The trend of a mild first week, significant storm around the 4-7 and then deep cold for about a week before moderating for the second half of the month seems to still be holding for now.  Looking like a majority of the area will have a deep snowpack before the cold plunge.

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This is quite a look for February on the most recent runs.  Of course you still have to line things up right.  Theoretically, record breaking/bitter cold with a couple wet/mild cutters could also give an appearance like this.  But still, you'd take your chances.

 

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summaryCFSv2.NaPrec.202102.thumb.gif.28b5f803654c9c7c410c4c5d526a6134.gif

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looks like we'll have a significant amount of sun the first half of this week, and any brutal cold next week will also have sunshine so turning out to be a much brighter first half of the month than January had

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22 minutes ago, madwx said:

looks like we'll have a significant amount of sun the first half of this week, and any brutal cold next week will also have sunshine so turning out to be a much brighter first half of the month than January had

The sun makes a big difference mentally

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Cylones glacier

should soak in any of the rain , then a couple more inches of snow and stay solid with the cold 

then any more systems later  will just add to it 

could be a problem later on

nsm_swe_2021020105_Midwest.jpg

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7 minutes ago, janetjanet998 said:

Cylones glacier

should soak in any of the rain , then a couple more inches of snow and stay solid with the cold 

then any more systems later  will just add to it 

could be a problem later on

nsm_swe_2021020105_Midwest.jpg

luckily as of right now the snow pack in Northern Wisconsin and Minnesota is below climo norms which would temper some river flooding but plenty of time for that to change

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19 hours ago, Spartman said:

February 2021: Wintry or Write-off?

image.thumb.png.e551685e9a363a67fb37826c570980e2.png

February has been the best month for winter weather the past few years it seems. This one looks to be no different.

 

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58 minutes ago, WI_SNOWSTORM said:

February has been the best month for winter weather the past few years it seems. This one looks to be no different.

 

Make that the past few decades lol. February has been where it's at. 

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1 hour ago, madwx said:

luckily as of right now the snow pack in Northern Wisconsin and Minnesota is below climo norms which would temper some river flooding but plenty of time for that to change

The snowpack in most of northern Wisconsin, northern Michigan and northern Minnesota is terrible right now compared to what it should be. 

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1 hour ago, michsnowfreak said:

The snowpack in most of northern Wisconsin, northern Michigan and northern Minnesota is terrible right now compared to what it should be. 

We here over to Chicago probably have considerably more OTG.

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3 hours ago, CheeselandSkies said:

We here over to Chicago probably have considerably more OTG.

 It varies from place to place but some of the low spots of northern Michigan like mackinaw & Petoskey as well as the "banana belt" of the upper peninsula only have around an inch of snow on the ground. the deepest snows are just over a foot in the favored spots 

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4 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

The snowpack in most of northern Wisconsin, northern Michigan and northern Minnesota is terrible right now compared to what it should be. 

You are right on. There is maybe 10-12" on the WI/UP border right now. Worst snowmobile trails in years right now in Northern WI. 

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55 minutes ago, WI_SNOWSTORM said:

You are right on. There is maybe 10-12" on the WI/UP border right now. Worst snowmobile trails in years right now in Northern WI. 

We’ve had about 10”+ on the ground at our place in northern lower MI since December 12th,  pretty amazing considering how warm its been this winter. The state of MI as a whole has really missed out on the snow that’s been hitting states too our west and east this winter, we would most definitely win the most boring weather award I think easily. Happy for all you snow lover’s that’s been getting it lately though, enjoy. 

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1 hour ago, WI_SNOWSTORM said:

You are right on. There is maybe 10-12" on the WI/UP border right now. Worst snowmobile trails in years right now in Northern WI. 

And that's the northern part. The southwestern part of the upper peninsula that borders Wisconsin has snow depths generally in the 1 to 3" range.

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45 minutes ago, slow poke said:

We’ve had about 10”+ on the ground at our place in northern lower MI since December 12th,  pretty amazing considering how warm its been this winter. The state of MI as a whole has really missed out on the snow that’s been hitting states too our west and east this winter, we would most definitely win the most boring weather award I think easily. Happy for all you snow lover’s that’s been getting it lately though, enjoy. 

I always say average wouldn't be average if it was always above average lol. Just not been Michigan's winter so far. I will be going up to the Gaylord area in a few weeks, they have probably between 7-12" otg which is far better than much of the rest of northern MI. I would say Detroit is probably realistically one of the only areas that could pull off an above avg snow season if the 2nd half produces, due to a decent start DTW is only 4.5" below avg to date.  Many northern towns are so far below average that even a great run would leave them short in the end.

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11 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

I always say average wouldn't be average if it was always above average lol. Just not been Michigan's winter so far. I will be going up to the Gaylord area in a few weeks, they have probably between 7-12" otg which is far better than much of the rest of northern MI. I would say Detroit is probably realistically one of the only areas that could pull off an above avg snow season if the 2nd half produces, due to a decent start DTW is only 4.5" below avg to date.  Many northern towns are so far below average that even a great run would leave them short in the end.

Gaylord had about 8” on the ground when we went through there Saturday, just north of there the snow really gets thin to the point that Indian River had maybe 3”. South of Gaylord to just north of West Branch had the deepest snow pack as of this weekend but I’m assuming that will change after we get some cold air and the lake effect gets going. Parts of the UP north of M28 are starting to get a decent snow pack finally, I know my cousins place north of Paradise had about 16-18” on the ground Sunday. Might want to consider heading that way Josh, the falls are awesome during the winter!

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2 minutes ago, slow poke said:

Gaylord had about 8” on the ground when we went through there Saturday, just north of there the snow really gets thin to the point that Indian River had maybe 3”. South of Gaylord to just north of West Branch had the deepest snow pack as of this weekend but I’m assuming that will change after we get some cold air and the lake effect gets going. Parts of the UP north of M28 are starting to get a decent snow pack finally, I know my cousins place north of Paradise had about 16-18” on the ground Sunday. Might want to consider heading that way Josh, the falls are awesome during the winter!

I've been that way many times! in fact, more often than Gaylord. Love love love that area. 16-18" is a huge disappointment for them. March 08 was my first time up there and I fell in love, 4-5 feet depth. I kinda figured that since it's a down snow year for all of northern MI might as well go closer...but now you have me second guessing my choice. Stay tuned lol.

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Yeah when it comes to snow depth there is a very large difference between Madison and Green Bay. At home I have over a foot of snow OTG. Here at college it's more like 4". Areas up to my north like Marinette have even less. This next storm could really add to our pack here though at least according to some models. I could be at 8-9" before the cold wave and home could have at least 16".

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