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wdrag

Major Nor'easter near blizzard (6"+ most of our area-best chance 20-30" north of I78 in ne PA, nw NJ, se NYS)-ice-rain-power outage NYC subforum late Sunday Jan 31-early Tue Feb 2.

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Hi!  Been off line most of the day and back in full early tomorrow. Not much for me to argue... I've no changes to my earlier thinking. In the end it will do what it wants and hopefully I learn from this.  

 

I add two NWS ensemble probability graphics from late today which i think are telling.  Note the gradient near NYC on prob >8"  so Yes, an easy foot expected in my eyes,  but ensembles say don't go all in...  since it's on the gradient...30 miles may make a difference between 8 and 20"? 

Still the jackpot of 25-30" if it occurs, which i think it will, probably somewhere n of I78 in ne PA, northern NJ and se NYS-Catskills region. 

No changes on my concerns about wet snow damage near I95, and coastal flooding,  wind gusts 45-55 MPH tomorrow afternoon-eve I95  corridor to the coasts. 

Have a good night.

 

Screen_Shot_2021-01-31_at_6_50.13_PM.png

Screen_Shot_2021-01-31_at_6_50.33_PM.png

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49 minutes ago, psv88 said:

This isn’t a Suffolk special, this setup favors NJ. We will get over a foot for sure, especially your area. 

Yup, we should do very well. Not the jackpot but best event since possibly 3/21/18. I'd say 80-90% chance we at least get into double digits. 

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5 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Yup, we should do very well. Not the jackpot but best event since possibly 3/21/18. I'd say 80-90% chance we at least get into double digits. 

100% chance we get into double digits. Model consensus for our area hasn’t wavered in days. It’s been a pretty boring lead up honestly, models always showed us in the game for 12”+. 
 

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I am in Stony Point NY, trying to figure out if work being called off was right. It hasn’t done anything here so far. Does that mean less total? We’re under 18-24 watch. 

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9 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Yup, we should do very well. Not the jackpot but best event since possibly 3/21/18. I'd say 80-90% chance we at least get into double digits. 

Do you think rain makes it into our area?

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Just now, 495weatherguy said:

Do you think rain makes it into our area?

We probably mix over at some point but it would be as the heavy precip is leaving/gone anyway. It could just be a long period of drizzle. 

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4 minutes ago, dburdnj said:

I am in Stony Point NY, trying to figure out if work being called off was right. It hasn’t done anything here so far. Does that mean less total? We’re under 18-24 watch. 

not at all, storm is just starting, the further north the longer it will take.  just started snowing here in lower westchester.

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4 minutes ago, dburdnj said:

I am in Stony Point NY, trying to figure out if work being called off was right. It hasn’t done anything here so far. Does that mean less total? We’re under 18-24 watch. 

By 10 pm it will be snowing accordingly to the forecast issued 6.pm

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Just now, jm1220 said:

We probably mix over at some point but it would be as the heavy precip is leaving/gone anyway. It could just be a long period of drizzle. 

By the time most of the island mixes, we will have either cashed in or busted anyway. Anything at that point woulda been relatively marginal anyways.

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49 minutes ago, sussexcountyobs said:

Stop posting ware and what company you work for. Trust me.

I work for Kla-Tencor Corporation over in Dutchess and my boss probably couldn't even figure out how to access this site, he's a real rube.

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4 minutes ago, mannylovessnow said:

Have we settled yet on a range for the city. Someone said Central Park could get 19", does the recent Euro support that? 

The WSW is for 16-22. OKX has 21” for KNYC in their graphics.

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Just now, hooralph said:

The WSW is for 16-22. OKX has 21” for KNYC in their graphics.

Surprised Upton went that high honestly. I thought I was being bullish calling for 18" in Central Park and they outdid me. :lol: 

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37 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

Still nothing here in Rockland County

You, snowman19 and bx are now neighbors.  

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14 minutes ago, Snowlover11 said:

not at all, storm is just starting, the further north the longer it will take.  just started snowing here in lower westchester.

 

13 minutes ago, Torch said:

By 10 pm it will be snowing accordingly to the forecast issued 6.pm

Thank you for the info. I’ve been glued to my phone watching this site dissect this storm since Friday and I couldn’t remember if it was supposed to start tonight or earlier this afternoon. 

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Plan on broadcasting from Freehold tomorrow through early afternoon, may adjust north west to englishtown/monroe if needed.  Especially concerned About the 11 pm high tide by Manasquan to Sea Bright for moderate to potentially major flooding.  Also somewhat concerned about dryslotting for some sections especially Philly areas.  Radar trends will be key.  Banding and subsidence will be prominent.   Hope for the best.  Prepare for the low end and be grateful for you in the high end totals.  

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58 minutes ago, wdrag said:

Hi!  Been off line most of the day and back in full early tomorrow. Not much for me to argue... I've no changes to my earlier thinking. In the end it will do what it wants and hopefully I learn from this.  

 

I add two NWS ensemble probability graphics from late today which i think are telling.  Note the gradient near NYC on prob >8"  so Yes, an easy foot expected in my eyes,  but ensembles say don't go all in...  since it's on the gradient...30 miles may make a difference between 8 and 20"? 

Still the jackpot of 25-30" if it occurs, which i think it will, probably somewhere n of I78 in ne PA, northern NJ and se NYS-Catskills region. 

No changes on my concerns about wet snow damage near I95, and coastal flooding,  wind gusts 45-55 MPH tomorrow afternoon-eve I95  corridor to the coasts. 

Have a good night.

 

Screen_Shot_2021-01-31_at_6_50.13_PM.png

Screen_Shot_2021-01-31_at_6_50.33_PM.png

Hoping what Walt said about that 25-30 inch Jackpot in NE PA and Catskills ! @snywx @Ericjcrash @crossbowftw3

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7 minutes ago, WestBabylonWeather said:

The whole rain snow line is still a mystery 

based on the NWS current totals graphics it looks like they expect the rain snow line to get to the middle of Suffolk and southeast CT 

It'll get further than that but the precip will largely be gone by then. Thus we still get high totals. 

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2 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

It'll get further than that but the precip will largely be gone by then. Thus we still get high totals. 

What time do you estimate this to occur?

So not that big of an impact on snow totals?

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8 minutes ago, 495weatherguy said:

What time do you estimate this to occur?

So not that big of an impact on snow totals?

The damage will have already been done.   Expect at least 12" by you and likely more.   We will likely dry slot/drizzle for a while before turning back over to light snow. 

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Just now, Rjay said:

The damage will have already been done.   Expect at least 12" by you and likely more.   We will likely dry slot/drizzle for a while before turning back over to light snow. 

Thank you for the reply

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