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Major Nor'easter near blizzard (6"+ most of our area-best chance 20-30" north of I78 in ne PA, nw NJ, se NYS)-ice-rain-power outage NYC subforum late Sunday Jan 31-early Tue Feb 2.


wdrag
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Just now, HeadInTheClouds said:

The position of the low isn't that bad but the qpf output is putrid. It has about .3 for NYC. I honestly hate this model and can't wait for it to be replaced. 

agreed.   I weigh heavily on Euro at this stage of the game even if the Euro is not what it used to be.  

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55 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said:

Yea mixing on LI but barely any precipitation north of I84 on 18z gfs. Maybe it’s wrong but definitely to be trend of more narrow zone of wintry precip. 

Temps on the GFS are often total crap. For precip type I would go by the 700 and 850 low tracks. If those go SE of you you should be good for all snow. When those track over or NW of you is when you should be concerned about a dryslot and mixing. 

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Mt. Holly

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Low pressure will track through the Ohio Valley Sunday and it
will transfer its energy to a coastal low Sunday night into
Monday. The lows origin will be from the Pacific Ocean, and it
will tap into moisture from the Gulf of Mexico as well as the
Atlantic Ocean. With high pressure to the north, this provides a
good setup for a winter storm to affect the area. Also, the
coastal low will likely be slow to move once it does develop
near the Delmarva and that is due to blocking high pressure to
the north. Therefore, a prolonged period of wintry precipitation
is possible for at least portions of the area.

Exact details are still uncertain at this time, but it does
appear that snow will overspread the area ahead of the primary
low Sunday from southwest to northeast. Accumulating snow is
likely for most areas during this time. Warmer air will begin to
work its way in from the Atlantic Ocean, likely causing snow to
mix with and even change to rain Sunday afternoon into Sunday
night across the Delmarva into southern New Jersey. The
rain/snow line will approach I-95 later Sunday night into
Monday, which adds some uncertainty to the forecast in regards
to how much accumulation there will be.

Coastal low pressure will remain near the Delmarva Coast Monday
through Monday night before slowly moving off to the east
Tuesday. A prolonged period of wintry precipitation is likely to
continue Monday and Monday night, especially near and north of
Interstate 95. Rain or rain changing to snow is more likely
farther south into southern Jersey and the Delmarva. Significant
snow accumulations are possible, especially for areas where snow
does not mix with or change to rain. Snow may continue Tuesday
and Tuesday evening, but with the low slowly departing it does
appear that precipitation rates will decrease.

 

It seems like as of now, Mt. Holly does not see the low hugging the coast and moving north or northeast. But, east, from the Delmarva. 

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After four solid double digit, but dubious snow outputs in a row, we get this:

As I pointed out before, there will never be a shortage of toilet paper in any NWS Office as long as there are GFS printouts, laying around.

1611856800-5byXBaM9S18.png

 

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6 hours ago, NJwx85 said:

If you live on the ocean you should expect mixing issues period. It comes with the territory. 

It might, and it mightn't.  An absolute declaration like this isn't useful for forecasting for the beaches.  By the way, compared to New Jersey, there is much less development on ocean beaches on Long Island.  A tiny fraction of the population lives on the ocean.

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3 minutes ago, NorthShoreWx said:

It might, and it mightn't.  An absolute declaration like this isn't useful for forecasting for the beaches.  By the way, compared to New Jersey, there is much less development on ocean beaches on Long Island.  A tiny fraction of the population lives on the ocean.

True. But what does that have to do with precip types during a storm? I can see urban development and heat island effect keeping near ground surface temps warmer on a cold clear night. But it will have no effect during a coastal storm. Maybe on accumulation, but not on what's falling from the sky.

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1 hour ago, jm1220 said:

Temps on the GFS are often total crap. For precip type I would go by the 700 and 850 low tracks. If those go SE of you you should be good for all snow. When those track over or NW of you is when you should be concerned about a dryslot and mixing. 

Agree, good way to predict precip type. Is there a way to check these tracks on the models?

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10 minutes ago, TriPol said:

This is the craziest storm. Everybody I hear is saying something different. Anywhere from 3 inches in the immediate NYC area to as much as 18 inches. When are storms going to get easier to predict??

When people start following every single model run lol. I know it’s hard not to but I am trying to learn how to actually predict storms instead of get caught up in the run to run noise 

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17 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Eps also but slightly

Unfortunately, and I know no one wants to hear this, but the writing is on the wall with this one. As we get closer, every storm has gotten away from us, and this is no different. 

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25 minutes ago, NJsnow89 said:

Unfortunately, and I know no one wants to hear this, but the writing is on the wall with this one. As we get closer, every storm has gotten away from us, and this is no different. 

Um no it isn't lol. 

50/50 low quickly moving east. The strong ridging east of New England supports a further west track. 

I'd rather show models being south right now than a bullseye. Remember what happened in December when we thought we'd get the brunt of it. 

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4 minutes ago, NJsnow89 said:

Well, let’s see what the NAM says but early observations show the confluence pressing down more. 

What? Where are you getting that from? It's not even at the end of the run when you would be able to know that?

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  • wdrag changed the title to Major Nor'easter near blizzard (6"+ most of our area-best chance 20-30" north of I78 in ne PA, nw NJ, se NYS)-ice-rain-power outage NYC subforum late Sunday Jan 31-early Tue Feb 2.
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