Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    16,780
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Avon
    Newest Member
    Avon
    Joined

February 2021


snowman19
 Share

Recommended Posts

1 hour ago, Allsnow said:

Seasonal forecasting has become meaningless now. The enso state is just a small piece of the puzzle. You need to wait until the end of December to see what the Pv and mjo look like. Coming into December everyone was calling for a torch Niña February. 

Next winter it looks like we won't have the ENSO issue so we will have to hope the MJO does not spend the entire winter in 3-4-5-6.   There is a decent chance we will have blocking in the first half of next winter.  Historically there has been some tendency for neutral ENSO winters following winters where there was significant blocking to start off similarly.  The bad news is they have also had a strong tendency to go strongly +AO/NAO in the back half.  

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, uncle W said:

some analogs like 1972 and 1974 had temperatures in the 70's the first week in March...I think both months ended up colder than normal...1972 had two mixed events and 1974 a late winter storm...April offered no help until the second half of the month...

I remember a few Springs where March started out mild and ended up cold and even had snow in early April

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

17 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Every storm took like 2-3 days to move out. I never remember a winter where it would snow for so long after the maine event 

Yeah, even Fay and Isaias were tucked in during the hurricane season. This is a rare year for summer ridging east of New England and Canadian Maritimes continuing right into the winter. Record SSTs and ridging have been very impressive since last summer.

173976AD-6FD9-4D0A-8C37-8ABA4995F38C.gif.8c65e220b4b2be5b5f07556ab050afbc.gif
D6D9D69F-58E0-4B8B-A08C-0EC405AFBF59.gif.3afdcd41badbff2d53f707e8aa0882b6.gif

6D914558-05A6-4C7F-96A7-E7C369DE2C32.gif.b5b41ab33ac007af16dae7b4a7184736.gif

 

 

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, even Fay and Isaias were tucked in during the hurricane season. This is a rare year for summer ridging east of New England and Canadian Maritimes continuing right into the winter. Record SSTs and ridging have been very impressive since last summer.

173976AD-6FD9-4D0A-8C37-8ABA4995F38C.gif.8c65e220b4b2be5b5f07556ab050afbc.gif
D6D9D69F-58E0-4B8B-A08C-0EC405AFBF59.gif.3afdcd41badbff2d53f707e8aa0882b6.gif

6D914558-05A6-4C7F-96A7-E7C369DE2C32.gif.b5b41ab33ac007af16dae7b4a7184736.gif

 

 

Maybe this will become semi-permanent going forward?

FWIW this is similar to the 50s, look at the long duration storms we had in March 1956 and February 1958 as well as all the hurricanes near the coast.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

50 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, we just didn’t have the supercharged STJ. The south based blocking seems to have helped to tuck in the storm tracks more than normal. The ridging poking down just east of New England allowed storms to track closer to Southern NJ. It also probably helped to give us about a degree or two of warming. My guess is that we would have the 50”+ of snow like Allentown as of today had the blocking been a little less south based.

Maybe for Suffolk County lol, but for NYC and Western Nassau getting to 40"- and we're close- will be a big win.

This track has been just fine for us, any mixing waited for when the precip was very light.

We've had FOUR 6"+ storms here in SW Nassau, I dont think that's happened since 1995-96.....

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

This was only our 4th winter with a -1 or lower AO for each of the 3 winter moths. But notice how much more south based this one was vs the previous 3. So that made this the warmest winter of the 4.

20-21

05176534-2ADD-4EA9-B2BA-5E1F22D6FC1C.gif.a22f63075b84d40ac12fd3712c26830c.gif
09-10

1B475AD1-7B26-48F4-BF4C-EEA0262E6AF0.gif.0bc7bba7039c570d456435d4dcf0b0c3.gif

76-77

21710316-17B0-42C1-A218-E975FC38581D.gif.8a1f3935596e17e104f7b25e7c3ced8e.gif

69-70

34B82F52-9FC5-40E1-B3D8-74E73E7A59E1.gif.6932e25e77b90b6f54dd797c3080b020.gif

I dont think warm is how most will think of this winter, not with whats gone on in the South.  It's been a historic winter.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

this winter was a la nina +QBO winter...similar winters were...66-67 added...

1966  -21.90  -17.14  -11.07   -2.33    2.16    5.42    7.47    7.63    9.23   11.00   11.74   13.26
1967   11.03   10.49   10.94   10.13    5.79   -0.58   -5.65   -6.76   -6.06   -4.82   -6.05   -7.27

1971  -10.67   -3.67    0.91    3.75    6.77    8.28    8.88    8.34    8.95    8.48    8.47    9.10
1972    8.20    7.95    7.35    6.22   -2.59  -10.70  -15.45  -19.28  -20.40  -21.17  -20.49  -16.78

1975  -16.70  -15.39  -13.04   -5.12    1.18    4.47    7.41    9.06   10.25   10.65   11.27   10.95
1976    9.22    8.92    9.70   11.53   10.04    2.78   -1.90   -4.89   -6.19   -8.23   -8.89  -11.85

1985   -0.37    4.21    6.30   11.11   13.57   14.04   11.10   11.08   11.72   11.84   11.45    9.51
1986    8.74   10.15   11.96    9.11    3.56   -2.15   -5.25   -9.60  -10.21   -9.60   -8.01  -10.51

2008  -12.42   -4.70    2.19    6.43   11.53   13.45   13.27   11.63   11.60   11.05    9.13   10.46
2009   10.71   12.33   11.44    9.11    1.56   -5.47  -12.21  -14.45  -13.81  -11.69  -13.83  -15.57

2010  -16.02  -16.98  -19.68  -23.57  -26.28  -25.05   -9.84    1.45    6.58   10.83   12.16   10.97
2011    9.18   10.05   10.44   10.71   10.02    3.90    0.44   -0.49   -2.30   -3.05   -9.09  -16.25

2016    9.34    6.77    3.16    0.64    2.37    3.86    6.25   10.07   10.48   12.83   14.16   15.09
2017   14.92   14.78   14.35   13.88    8.01   -3.18  -10.48  -14.42  -15.28  -16.79  -17.20  -18.12

2020   -2.51   -3.20   -4.36   -5.03   -4.86   -2.78    0.34    4.78    7.95   10.80   11.15   10.37
2021   10.19 -999.00 -999.00 -999.00 -999.00 -999.00 -999.00 -999.00 -999
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

24 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

how long did it snow for in Brooklyn and was it during the day and did it accumulate?

It didn't snow long 

I remember seeing snowflakes during the day and overnight in May. Temp fell down to 32 degrees. Coating on colder surfaces  at night.

  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

59 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Maybe this will become semi-permanent going forward?

FWIW this is similar to the 50s, look at the long duration storms we had in March 1956 and February 1958 as well as all the hurricanes near the coast.

 

The 500 mb blocking east of New England and the Canadian Maritimes just set a new all-time June to January record by a wide margin.

D662A013-F645-4C75-8143-F5B24D703ED7.png.11580cf9dd7ac74fb287bcd06786dc78.png
DC0C3DC0-ADB3-4A96-993E-C795362151F1.png.a101a7648fcb6efd6d6cb5ef7d34bb02.png

  • Like 1
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

super hot but not that humid, my favorite kind of summer lol

 

I agree - it was hot - but not DewPoint disaster the past several years have become. I would take that Spring and Summer - anytime. Also the autumn and winter that followed at the end of it. 

  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, bkviking said:

I agree - it was hot - but not DewPoint disaster the past several years have become. I would take that Spring and Summer - anytime. Also the autumn and winter that followed at the end of it. 

yesss cant forget about 10-11

even the 98 we hit in September wasn't humid at all.  And the winter that came after was memorable in every respect.

FWIW I distinctly remember Sundog, who notoriously hates summer heat say that the 100 degree days that July didn't even feel like 90 let alone 100.  He thoroughly enjoyed it and said every summer day should be like that.

 

 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

yesss cant forget about 10-11

even the 98 we hit in September wasn't humid at all.  And the winter that came after was memorable in every respect.

FWIW I distinctly remember Sundog, who notoriously hates summer heat say that the 100 degree days that July didn't even feel like 90 let alone 100.  He thoroughly enjoyed it and said every summer day should be like that.

 

 

Yeah - maybe someone like Bluewave can post the 500mb anomalies for that summer. I believe we had unusual W-WNW winds that summer. Furnace but just not dewy . 

  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

I dont think warm is how most will think of this winter, not with whats gone on in the South.  It's been a historic winter.

 

The core of the cold was focused over a smaller geographic region around the Plains during this extreme -AO episode. Notice how much more real estate the winter cold anomalies covered in 09-10, 76-77, and 69-70. So relative to other extreme -AO patterns, this was the warmest for our area.

327D0519-2514-4AD1-A64E-2B8AC375AA8F.gif.64c110b437e9470dd0ca6beb68224bb5.gif
067CFED9-91E4-4A9F-A6E4-2E0BBE613C98.gif.89188634ca759bbc31c04d890906e877.gif

339845D4-FE5F-4CBA-94AD-CBA3B26E30E7.gif.e177edc223000dbe5cc78bf824f8f47d.gif

E56C3F76-E75B-436A-8EBD-E8E2350326CC.gif.c1d7c4297c1b344cfdedd9504c3706ac.gif

 

  • Thanks 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

25 minutes ago, Northof78 said:

Was this February everyone #1 February over the past 20-30 years? Still a little to go, with likely full coverage wall to wall with snowcover, a 16” -30” HECS, 1-2 SECS, and 1-2 smaller storms...it’s up there

Yeah it'll be up there though Feb 2003, 2010, and 2015 may slightly take the cake.

The extreme cold of 2015 was more impressive and 03 had the bigger storm. 

2010 had higher monthly totals and was a couple degrees colder on average.

  • Like 1
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

February 2014 needs recognition as well. Consistently cold (though not to the extent of 2015), along with consistently deep snowpack with back to back storms on February 3 and 5 in addition to a great two parter right before Valentine’s Day. Probably one of the more underrated recent winters in general.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 hours ago, Rjay said:

With the amount of snow melt going on today I figured we were in the low 40s.  It's 31 degrees at ISP.   Late February sun doing some work today. 

Layman's question on this - please folks don't put me on blast..

Speaking of late February sun, I've noticed over the years that when there's a storm threat in March and someone makes mention of the fact that snowfall under marginally thick cloud cover will have trouble accumulating, it seems to be met with ridicule.  Obviously sun angle starts playing a larger role in heating up the ground, just as you mention, and we see how quick the snow disappears, increasingly as we go through March.   So why references to sun angle met with such reaction?  Or is that type of reaction only in response to folks saying that it categorically can't snow, which of course would be silly.   Thanks.

  • Weenie 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 hours ago, Rjay said:

With the amount of snow melt going on today I figured we were in the low 40s.  It's 31 degrees at ISP.   Late February sun doing some work today. 

Was thinking the same thing. Actually felt quite nice out despite the temp. Can’t wait until we can get some days in the 50s.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...