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February 2021


snowman19
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Clown range but HRRR drops 4-5" overnight Monday into Tuesday morning for the metro. 

So let's see we have Tuesday, Thursday/Friday, Sunday, and likely something beyond that. 

Biggest potential in terms of snowfall amounts is next weekend with PNA rising and NAO/AO going up. -5 AO too before it rises, which is very significant.

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1 hour ago, SnoSki14 said:

Clown range but HRRR drops 4-5" overnight Monday into Tuesday morning for the metro. 

So let's see we have Tuesday, Thursday/Friday, Sunday, and likely something beyond that. 

Biggest potential in terms of snowfall amounts is next weekend with PNA rising and NAO/AO going up. -5 AO too before it rises, which is very significant.

Yeah that HRRR run is pretty nuts.  It’s crazy how the NAM really hates that event still though it has come south and is juicier than it was 

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The makings of a 50" snow total for this month?:          With this onslaught, as Arctic fronts spar with the SE Ridge,  we can add this  30" to the 15" prior to today, and have another few days to get to 50".

1612699200-1KY6EKrcB5g.png

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49 minutes ago, bluewave said:

This has to be one of the most fully loaded EPS runs for snow that we have seen. The EPS is one snowstorm after another right into mid to late February. I don’t know where the snow removal crews are going to pile up all the snow. Some of the individual members are off the charts.

The right lane on a lot of roads will be out of commission for awhile. Will also need to be extra cautious making turns with the huge piles in so many spots.

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1 hour ago, gmendevils8204 said:

The right lane on a lot of roads will be out of commission for awhile. Will also need to be extra cautious making turns with the huge piles in so many spots.

Yeah my wife told me to call the town and tell them only one car could get through to the local highway....I called and got a recording saying we are busy and don't throw your snow in the street.

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Today's storm brought a large swath of 4"-8" snows with some locally higher amounts to the New York City region. Even heavier amounts were reported in parts of New England. Select accumulations included:

Bridgeport: 7.4"
East Killingly, CT: 9.6"
Islip: 5.1"
New York City: 4.5"
Newark: 5.6"
Norfolk, MA: 12.0"
Sharon, MA: 12.0"
Syosset (1 N), NY: 8.4"
Westwood (1 NNE), NJ: 9.1"

Another light snow event could affect parts of the region on Tuesday.

Up in Canada's Nunavut Province, temperatures will reach record high levels tomorrow through at least Monday. That push of exceptional warmth will dislodge a frigid Arctic air mass currently located over northwestern Canada. That cold air mass will likely enter the Northern Plains States early next week. Afterward, it could slowly advance eastward and possibly reach the Middle Atlantic and southern New England regions just before mid-month.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.4°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.7°C for the week centered around January 27. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.71°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -1.03°C. La Niña conditions will likely prevail at least through meteorological winter.

The SOI was +13.26 today.

Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -3.730 today.

On February 6 the MJO was in Phase 7 at an amplitude of 2.145 (RMM). The February 5-adjusted amplitude was 2.115.

Based on the latest guidance, no significant stratospheric warming event is likely through the second week of February.  

The significant December 16-17 snowstorm during what has been a blocky December suggests that seasonal snowfall prospects have increased especially from north of Philadelphia into southern New England. At New York City, there is a high probability based on historic cases that an additional 20" or more snow will accumulate after December. Since January 1, New York City has picked up 22.0" snow.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 80% probability that New York City will have a colder than normal February. February will likely finish with a mean temperature near 32.5°.

 

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2 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

Today's storm brought a large swath of 4"-8" snows with some locally higher amounts to the New York City region. Even heavier amounts were reported in parts of New England. Select accumulations included:

Bridgeport: 7.4"
East Killingly, CT: 9.6"
Islip: 5.1"
New York City: 4.5"
Newark: 5.6"
Norfolk, MA: 12.0"
Sharon, MA: 12.0"
Syosset (1 N), NY: 8.4"
Westwood (1 NNE), NJ: 9.1"

Another light snow event could affect parts of the region on Tuesday.

Up in Canada's Nunavut Province, temperatures will reach record high levels tomorrow through at least Monday. That push of exceptional warmth will dislodge a frigid Arctic air mass currently located over northwestern Canada. That cold air mass will likely enter the Northern Plains States early next week. Afterward, it could slowly advance eastward and possibly reach the Middle Atlantic and southern New England regions just before mid-month.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.4°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.7°C for the week centered around January 27. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.71°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -1.03°C. La Niña conditions will likely prevail at least through meteorological winter.

The SOI was +13.26 today.

Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -3.730 today.

On February 6 the MJO was in Phase 7 at an amplitude of 2.145 (RMM). The February 5-adjusted amplitude was 2.115.

Based on the latest guidance, no significant stratospheric warming event is likely through the second week of February.  

The significant December 16-17 snowstorm during what has been a blocky December suggests that seasonal snowfall prospects have increased especially from north of Philadelphia into southern New England. At New York City, there is a high probability based on historic cases that an additional 20" or more snow will accumulate after December. Since January 1, New York City has picked up 22.0" snow.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 80% probability that New York City will have a colder than normal February. February will likely finish with a mean temperature near 32.5°.

 

People are telling me "global warming" isn't real because of this bout of cold lol.  This is exactly why it's called climate change and not global warming.

One asked me how could we be having all this sustained cold when he had been told we could never get this kind of weather again.

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2 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

Today's storm brought a large swath of 4"-8" snows with some locally higher amounts to the New York City region. Even heavier amounts were reported in parts of New England. Select accumulations included:

Bridgeport: 7.4"
East Killingly, CT: 9.6"
Islip: 5.1"
New York City: 4.5"
Newark: 5.6"
Norfolk, MA: 12.0"
Sharon, MA: 12.0"
Syosset (1 N), NY: 8.4"
Westwood (1 NNE), NJ: 9.1"

Another light snow event could affect parts of the region on Tuesday.

Up in Canada's Nunavut Province, temperatures will reach record high levels tomorrow through at least Monday. That push of exceptional warmth will dislodge a frigid Arctic air mass currently located over northwestern Canada. That cold air mass will likely enter the Northern Plains States early next week. Afterward, it could slowly advance eastward and possibly reach the Middle Atlantic and southern New England regions just before mid-month.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.4°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.7°C for the week centered around January 27. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.71°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -1.03°C. La Niña conditions will likely prevail at least through meteorological winter.

The SOI was +13.26 today.

Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -3.730 today.

On February 6 the MJO was in Phase 7 at an amplitude of 2.145 (RMM). The February 5-adjusted amplitude was 2.115.

Based on the latest guidance, no significant stratospheric warming event is likely through the second week of February.  

The significant December 16-17 snowstorm during what has been a blocky December suggests that seasonal snowfall prospects have increased especially from north of Philadelphia into southern New England. At New York City, there is a high probability based on historic cases that an additional 20" or more snow will accumulate after December. Since January 1, New York City has picked up 22.0" snow.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 80% probability that New York City will have a colder than normal February. February will likely finish with a mean temperature near 32.5°.

 

dont forget that 7" at JFK Don!  Maybe the NYC/LGA numbers are off?

 

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7 hours ago, bluewave said:

This has to be one of the most fully loaded EPS runs for snow that we have seen. The EPS is one snowstorm after another right into mid to late February. I don’t know where the snow removal crews are going to pile up all the snow. Some of the individual members are off the charts.

did anyone predict this kind of blocking?  what happened?  think we'll see the kind of fantasy storm we've been talking about for a few years (a benchmark track all snow slow moving triple phaser that drops 40" of snow here lol.)

 

 

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4 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

People are telling me "global warming" isn't real because of this bout of cold lol.  This is exactly why it's called climate change and not global warming.

One asked me how could we be having all this sustained cold when he had been told we could never get this kind of weather again.

Yeah they always do this.

One month of cold/snow doesn't negate the dozens of very warm months before it. Dec/Jan were still several degrees above normal.

However we are also getting a highly anomalous pattern that likely has something to do with climate change. lengthy blocking, a cold/snowy Feb La Nina. 

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8 hours ago, SnoSki14 said:

Clown range but HRRR drops 4-5" overnight Monday into Tuesday morning for the metro. 

So let's see we have Tuesday, Thursday/Friday, Sunday, and likely something beyond that. 

Biggest potential in terms of snowfall amounts is next weekend with PNA rising and NAO/AO going up. -5 AO too before it rises, which is very significant.

thats presidents day weekend right?  it's early this year?  or the weekend after, around the 20th which was also being highlighted by some?

 

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2 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Yeah they always do this.

One month of cold/snow doesn't negate the dozens of very warm months before it. Dec/Jan were still several degrees above normal.

However we are also getting a highly anomalous pattern that likely has something to do with climate change. lengthy blocking, a cold/snowy Feb La Nina. 

yeah this is pretty crazy and reminds me of 2009-10 and 2010-11, and one was an el nino and the other a la nina so this is something much bigger than enso....this is some sort of stuck pattern that keeps amplifying itself.

imagine if we had a runaway greenhouse effect and the pattern kept getting stronger and stronger in a chain reaction?  people wonder how the Great Red Spot on Jupiter is a permanent feature- imagine having a permanent Cat 5 hurricane or snowstorm roaming the planet for thousands of years lol

 

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