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Ginx snewx

February the climo snow month

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27 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yea, I'd gladly take going 2/3 on DJF if that is the consolation.

 I mean ...we laugh .. but has it occurred to anyone else that these single events if not pattern aggregate scenarios are getting increasingly more successful at doing that? I mean over the last 10 to 20 years of the books, two-events atoning for halt-to-whole seasonal quotas is getting a bit eerily common ...  One event 30 to 40" deep from S of Water Town NY to Brian front porch is astounding but is getting sort kinda weirdly familiar - 

I could just see an index anchor-low like that ... pivoting around the "lagrange point" over 30 hours of pummeling moderate snow.  After 5 weeks and counting in dearth.. boom!  Any perceived seasonal snowfall deficits ... corrected - only in this group of ingrates they'll still feel somehow oddly cheated and still owed but that's a different discussion -   

 

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2 minutes ago, 78Blizzard said:

I've learned my lesson this winter, and that is not to get invested in 8-10 day potentials.

You can talk about it without being emotionally all in. Try it. 

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7 minutes ago, 78Blizzard said:

I've learned my lesson this winter, and that is not to get invested in 8-10 day potentials.

Models shouldn't go out past 5 days 

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5 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Models shouldn't go out past 5 days 

problem is ... every distant storm in the models are not created equally -

There are ways to increase confidence intervals over random - and learning to employ those methods ( when ..) is a bit of art in the practicum but, does pay dividends at times for early recognition. 

This one for Feb 2nd... hate to say, has that -

...Which means that it won't now out of smite but that's another paranoia -

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18 minutes ago, 78Blizzard said:

I've learned my lesson this winter, and that is not to get invested in 8-10 day potentials.

You joined in 2010 and you’re just learning this now? ;)

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In fact... this is the type of lead teleconnector spread that would have me creating a thread back in the day -

I'm willing to wait the < D7 sort of culture of teasing and harassment that's evolved ... lest one suffers the wrath of humiliating playground admonishment so extreme as to challenge the very endurance of man ..

But this one uniquely favored above anything we've seen since that October thing ... and actually, better conveyed through those large modality arguments than what which preceded the Dec 17 storm. 

So now it DEFINITELY ain't happenin' 

It's okay - we'll blame Scott if it doesn't  

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actually jesus...That's a 30 hour snow gig on that Euro run.

Actually, it looks less for +PNA and more so for -NAO decay mechanics - interesting... either way.  that's why having multiple tele's converging is useful - heh, if one fugs up the other might succeed.

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1 hour ago, MJO812 said:

February doesn't look that warm with the MJO getting into 7 and hopefully 8.

Yeah... I been wanting to mention this but the wave has really only shown that robust progression since about 2 or so days ago.   Prior to then/ .. last month, the wave was bouncing around trying to push futilely through the La Nina/HC signal, crawling through obscurity instead..

But, this 7-8-2 has a modest negative correlation coefficients heading into February ...  actually -.25 which is pretty good for atmospheric vagaries... Anyway, so there is a bit a statistical support from the historical hemisphere for those phases vs the cooler NINO 3.4 regional SST gunk.   But, ...caution, I'm also hesitant and feeling a little hypocritical in mentioning because .. in fairness, I've been musing ( Ray and Will know this..) the idea of the MJO's ( and la nina for that matter ) questionably being buried inside the HC ...which means that they are less contacting the gradient where their dispersion mechanics can influence the jet ...etc... it's all best left for a bad night with mushrooms -

The other aspect is that the WPO really needs to stop festering and relax ... Otherwise, what good does it do.  That wave may not propagate out of the Maritime continent, either, if it runs into a planetary R-wave Neptunian velocity road block..

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11 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

2010-2011 8 days away.

My recollection is that 2011 winter basically ended at the end of January. So if that's what you mean, I'm with you.

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27 minutes ago, Henry's Weather said:

Omega block is synonymous with banana block?

This one is not a classic Omega block, but close. Maybe you are thinking about a banana high? That would be much better and have much colder air to work with. At any rate, it might make the storm move slowly and provide more precip assuming the Euro has the right idea. 

Inkedecmwf-deterministic-namer-z500_barbs-2202400_LI.thumb.jpg.ffa0d1222f8ae29a460b350fafd39c07.jpg

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3 hours ago, WeatherX said:

This one is not a classic Omega block, but close. Maybe you are thinking about a banana high? That would be much better and have much colder air to work with. At any rate, it might make the storm move slowly and provide more precip assuming the Euro has the right idea. 

Inkedecmwf-deterministic-namer-z500_barbs-2202400_LI.thumb.jpg.ffa0d1222f8ae29a460b350fafd39c07.jpg

Geez, I was thumbing through KU Volume I today....and that's a spitting image of March 1958.  At the surface, that one was a primary over OH, redeveloping near Norfolk.  The end result was not pretty for most of NE.  30"+ over SEPA and NEMD.  Good hit in Poconos, with another max near Fitchburg.

Also, I saw where K&U like the NAO block on the eastern shore of Greenland, not the Davis straight area.

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