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February the climo snow month


Ginx snewx
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1 hour ago, George001 said:

I disagree, the dead ratter Enso state in New England is a strong El Niño, that’s the enso state we avg the least amount of snow in. I’ll take a record strong Nina over a record strong El Niño any day. In fact the strongest La Niña on record, 2010-2011, was an epic winter NYC north. This winter ended up as an avg-above avg winter here, but was very close to being more. From what I read over at the pattern drivers thread the nina pattern didn’t really take over until Feb, which is when we got our snowiest month. I don’t really understand the anti Nina sentiment here, our area does fairly well in ninas, it’s the mid Atlantic that gets screwed by them. Ninos tend to screw us and be congrats DC when moderate or strong (we can do well in weak ninos though).

No George you miss my point.   2nd year big ninas are most often terrible winters here.

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11 minutes ago, weathafella said:

And sung by her as well.

when you really listen to her music, not only is she a tremendous song writer, but her voice is just something amazing.  I"m 57 but just started listening to her music recently.  She has a tremendous range of types of music.  The sound quality isn't great on this but check out Mama Cass's outfit lol

 

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9 minutes ago, weathafella said:

No George you miss my point.   2nd year big ninas are most often terrible winters here.

Yeah I misunderstood your point, I thought you were saying Strong ninas in general are bad. I haven’t dug up the data yet on 2nd year mod-strong ninas yet but just off the top of my head we have 2011-2012, 2017-2018, and I believe there was one in the late 90s that sucked as well. If 2011-2012 is an analog that’s a very bad sign. I would have thought with 2 ninas in a row the Nina pattern would be more “set in” the second year so it would give us better chances and better winter patterns. It seems like the data is indicating the opposite, so how I thought it works is incorrect. Maybe it’s more like Rays load blown south west idea in that a miller a bombing out really far south isn’t necessarily good for us compared to a Miller B that bombs out over Nantucket. For the La Niña maybe the Nina “blows it’s load” and gives a more Nina pattern the first year but by the time the second year comes around the Nina, while still in place, isn’t really driving the pattern anymore. Another tricky aspect of forecasting is climate change, as certain atmospheric drivers that did one thing in the past may not do the same now with the warmer temps. For example a pattern with a bunch of marginal wet snow storms 50 years ago might just give us rain now. 

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12 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said:

when you really listen to her music, not only is she a tremendous song writer, but her voice is just something amazing.  I"m 57 but just started listening to her music recently.  She has a tremendous range of types of music.  The sound quality isn't great on this but check out Mama Cass's outfit lol

 

Nice find!   Joni did not age well.   A heavy smoker and survived a ruptured brain aneurysm.

 

 

D498B2A8-1456-4304-8194-33C966125541.jpeg

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We have a sun room at the house---it's really just a roof and supports on the deck (the floor is part of the deck).  The walls are entirely windows, essentially floor to ceiling.

 

I think I'm going to name it The Tip Room.  With the sun shinining through, the thermometer is reading 80*.  lol.  Basking in the warmth.

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1 hour ago, dendrite said:

09-10 we had a lot of stale cold airmasses up here from the blocking. It’s consistently cold, but the arctic shots are more of a maritime arctic than a continental arctic. I think that was part of our problem this year. Then when we did have vodka cold drop out of Canada it dropped its load well to the west. 

Here is an excerpt from my 2009-2010 log describing this to some extent:

12/31 to 1/3                                8"            Huge trof, at one point a week before looked
                                                                like BECS, but southrn stream swung way
                                                                east then retro to ME, Boston.  2.5 on day one
                                                                with zipper, then 3 with Norlun, then 2.5 wrap
                                                                around.  Very spotty accums.  We did well
                                                                in Trumbull.  Very warm air backed into ME
                                                                and QE, we stayed bitter cold Sunday with
                                                                near blizzard conditions at times.


 

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3 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I'm not sad.....season featured a couple of nice events within an overall sea of disappointment, yet again. Seasonal call was pretty accurate, February temps not withstanding.

Ready for change and reshuffle the deck next year.

Snowfall-wise it's been a pretty good winter, we're at like 50" with March to go. 

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13 minutes ago, Go Kart Mozart said:

Here is an excerpt from my 2009-2010 log describing this to some extent:

12/31 to 1/3                                8"            Huge trof, at one point a week before looked
                                                                like BECS, but southrn stream swung way
                                                                east then retro to ME, Boston.  2.5 on day one
                                                                with zipper, then 3 with Norlun, then 2.5 wrap
                                                                around.  Very spotty accums.  We did well
                                                                in Trumbull.  Very warm air backed into ME
                                                                and QE, we stayed bitter cold Sunday with
                                                                near blizzard conditions at times.


 

Yeah I wanna say later into Feb too. I remember Will and I talking about how bad the NAM was performing and I had the idea that its domain wasn’t picking up the blocking very well toward Greenland. I lost my data in a hard drive crash, but I recall a lot of 20s for highs and teens for lows that month with persistent wind. Basically a whole lotta nothin. Obviously we know DC was getting crushed with multiple events as well while we either mixed or whiffed. 

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2 hours ago, dendrite said:

09-10 we had a lot of stale cold airmasses up here from the blocking. It’s consistently cold, but the arctic shots are more of a maritime arctic than a continental arctic. I think that was part of our problem this year. Then when we did have vodka cold drop out of Canada it dropped its load well to the west. 

Yeah this year we had some bad luck too. Seemed like confluence was just enough to shear out systems coming from the Plains and southern US. The true arctic cold was really only the last two weeks and driven through the west and plains. But you can look at it alternatively. The confluence also helped reduce the cutter potential. There’s a good chance that without the confluence, storms would have been a lot milder for New England.

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8 minutes ago, dendrite said:

It's amazing how nice a 30F sunny day feels even this time of year. I'm all for a couple more biggies, but please sprinkle some 50F sunny days in between. TIA

Wednesday.. just for you and Tip to tan. Sit on snowbanks facing north and tilt heads down the ground . By 2:00, necks will be torched red 

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23 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Wednesday.. just for you and Tip to tan. Sit on snowbanks facing north and tilt heads down the ground . By 2:00, necks will be torched red 

SW corner of my house and garage...torch city. Add the UV reflection off the siding and maybe we can pull a 5 UVI midday. :weenie:

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