• Member Statistics

    16,544
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    BobbyB
    Newest Member
    BobbyB
    Joined
stormtracker

Jan 25th Wintry Mix Obs and Nowcasting

Recommended Posts

44 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

Lock it up :)

indeed. my house is in there, too.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
17 minutes ago, Yeoman said:

Why run the model if it's known to be flawed?

           Because there is way more to judge it by than whether it's too cold and wet for DC area mixed precip events.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, high risk said:

           Because there is way more to judge it by than whether it's too cold and wet for DC area mixed precip events.

I’m a little surprised that you wasted your time responding to that post.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, high risk said:

           Because there is way more to judge it by than whether it's too cold and wet for DC area mixed precip events.

            Ok, that was my snarky answer.      The better answer builds on that a little more.      It's still one of the best models for handling shallow cold air masses and things like terrain-induced wind storms in the west and fog.     Ultimately, the NAM nest is a way better model, but it's driven by the 12 km NAM, so that's another reason to keep running it.     Ultimately, the NAM nest and parent are frozen (no more development is being done on them) and will likely be retired in ~3 years.

  • Like 3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, high risk said:

           Because there is way more to judge it by than whether it's too cold and wet for DC area mixed precip events.

Is there anything from that run that we can use?

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said:

Is there anything from that run that we can use?

I’m gonna go with its snow totals. 

  • Like 1
  • Weenie 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
14 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

Checking on the QPF, the NAM is an outlier, but it's not like it would take a crazy jump to get the other guidance in line. 50 or less miles north isn't a totally unreasonable ask...

1611673200-N3SjUZSmoEQ.png

1611673200-kV560YDQwS0.png

1611684000-lBm6rvLfezE.png

1611684000-WCeYmNaqPx0.png

But the question is if the QPF comes north would the warmth follow it?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

 

2 hours ago, nw baltimore wx said:

I’m a little surprised that you wasted your time responding to that post.

       Fair point.     I think I'm at close to my breaking point because of Weather53's crusade against NWP....

2 hours ago, leesburg 04 said:

Is there anything from that run that we can use?

        Honestly yes.     The NAM is colder than the GFS which is notoriously crappy with low-level temperature profiles, and the NAM (in conjunction with the HRRR and some other meso models) is telling me that if I'm north of the Beltway tomorrow evening, I have a decent shot to see a modest accumulation of snow.    I personally rarely look at the 12 km version of the NAM, because the NAM nest is a much better model, and I think that is a good strategy here this evening with the 00z cycle. 

  • Like 1
  • Thanks 5

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, Interstate said:

But the question is if the QPF can north would the warmth follow it?

Someone smarter than me can chime in but I don't think this is one of those scenarios. Think we'd need the high QPF/rates from the NAM to give those outside of the favored areas a chance at a boom. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
            Ok, that was my snarky answer.      The better answer builds on that a little more.      It's still one of the best models for handling shallow cold air masses and things like terrain-induced wind storms in the west and fog.     Ultimately, the NAM nest is a way better model, but it's driven by the 12 km NAM, so that's another reason to keep running it.     Ultimately, the NAM nest and parent are frozen (no more development is being done on them) and will likely be retired in ~3 years.

Thanks - appreciate the response
  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
19 minutes ago, high risk said:

 

       Fair point.     I think I'm at close to my breaking point because of Weather53's crusade against NWP....

        

I don’t understand why you don’t put him on ignore. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, ravensrule said:

I don’t understand why you don’t put him on ignore. 

He’s probably smart and not here as often as us fools.

 

24 minutes ago, high risk said:

  Fair point.     I think I'm at close to my breaking point because of Weather53's crusade against NWP....

He’s fighting windmills.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
55 minutes ago, high risk said:

 

       Fair point.     I think I'm at close to my breaking point because of Weather53's crusade against NWP....

        Honestly yes.     The NAM is colder than the GFS which is notoriously crappy with low-level temperature profiles, and the NAM (in conjunction with the HRRR and some other mess models) is telling me that if I'm north of the Beltway tomorrow evening, I have a decent shot to see a modest accumulation of snow.    I personally rarely look at the 12 km version of the NAM, because the NAM nest is a much better model, and I think that is a good strategy here this evening with the 00z cycle. 

Thank you for contributing...and in case you haven't noticed his ridiculous NWP conspiracy rants drive me absolutely crazy.  It's not the stupidity of it...its the extreme disrespect to basically accuse so many people of that kind of thing without any evidence to back it up.  The audacity to think its acceptable to just make up some BS like that and impugn the integrity of others without a shred of any evidence to support the accusation.  

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.