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WinterWxLuvr

Feb Long Range Discussion (Day 3 and beyond) - MERGED

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2 minutes ago, Stormfly said:

Yes 1985, when it rains it pours.  Not that it was rain but so much weather in just a week's time.

From my post earlier, just over two years ago here...

Best squall I've experienced in my life was in Harford County MD near Jarrettsville.

It was Friday, January 25, 1985.  Story time!

I just got finished up with dinner.  Turned on the TV and was flipping through channels.  WTTG (Channel 5 in DC) was always sensitive to sferics and I used that to know in the summer when TRW was nearby or so.  Never expected to see white static and crashes through the speaker in Jan.  WTF!  So I watched and again, not even a minute later, another one!  So, I take a look out my den window facing due west and sure enough, I can see lightning in the distance.  While this would be no biggie in May, in Jan it is and this area rarely sees thundersnow.  As I kept watching, I noticed what I thought was a dog that got loose from one of the neighbors.  It waddled closer in and to my surprise it was a HUGE Canadian goose!  Well that surely was strange.  And then there was another flash that was bright enough that it took my attention off the goose.  I noticed a few flurries coming down as well.  There were two more flashes and I heard thunder.  This was sounding just like a decent thunderstorm approaching in the spring or summer.  But!  It was snow.  And boy did it snow.  The streetlights up on the main road disappeared and I thought perhaps the power went out, then the houses across the street completely obscured from view!  Not foggy-ish, just gone.  Then I realized what was happening.  It arrived.  What would normally be a torrential downpour was an intense snow squall that was a total white out.  Looking out the window was like looking out there with a white sheet over the glass.  Simply amazing.  There was a blinding flash followed by thunder less than a second later.  It was exceedingly blue-white brilliant like a huge high intensity discharge (HMI) lamp starting up.  The wind was also roaring.  I ran downstairs to my shack and checked and the wind speed on my Heathkit ID4000 was at 49 mph.  It was a very high sustained wind during the event.  The peak gust was 53mph.  The anemometer was mounted at 10 meters on a free standing Rohn 25G tower so those numbers are legit.

 

The funniest part of the story is when I pulled the curtain back to look outside, there was a blinding flash of light and right outside the window was that damn goose!  I scared him and he spread his wings and jumped in the air and I nearly fell backwards away from the window.  I actually recall screaming, it was that bad.  If you've ever seen the movie Free Willy, near the beginning where the kids were at the aquarium painting the tank windows with graffiti and the lightning flashes and Jessie sees Willy for the first time with mouth open and screams, well there you go, that's it right there! :)

Anyhow, after that was over, we had a good 6 or 7" of new snow in well under an hour, 40-45 minutes tops and most of that was in that heavy burst.  I would not want to be caught driving in something like that for sure.  Those are the kind of *instant whiteout* that cause big traffic pileups on the interstate.  Because someone is going to stop and someone isn't.

I've never seen this happen before.  Have seen thundersnow several times, but that was truly legit and it was wonderful.

lol I went back and found that thread too. Great story, and similar to my experience that evening, minus the goose.

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19 minutes ago, Wentzadelphia said:

I love how the 18z gfs formed a storm at day 10-11 in the exact same way I’ve been talking about ;) 

AHEM

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28 minutes ago, Wentzadelphia said:

I love how the 18z gfs formed a storm at day 10-11 in the exact same way I’ve been talking about ;) 

just messing with ya, it was a good piece of pattern recognition by you.  I agree that there is an elevated threat of a storm there

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Just now, clskinsfan said:

85 was cold for sure. But it is no comparison to 77. That is the coldest winter I have ever experienced in my lifetime. Hell it snowed in Miami for goodness sake. 

77 I could deal with...because while it was MUCH below normal snowfall here (only about 55%) it was still better then 1985 and every inch didn't melt for weeks and this area slowly built up a 10" snow depth 2" at a time and had snowcover for like 6 weeks.  That would be kind of cool even if a little disappointing to only get half of average snowfall with all that cold.  77 is ANOTHER example of why I don't chase arctic outbreaks.  I am not kidding...our coldest periods usually do NOT coincide with our snowiest periods.  

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94 was an exception . Lots of juiced storms along with incredible cold for 6 weeks . I'm not sure 77 had the far reaching record lows like 94 but I could be wrong. 

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6 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

85 was cold for sure. But it is no comparison to 77. That is the coldest winter I have ever experienced in my lifetime. Hell it snowed in Miami for goodness sake. 

And both of those Winter's had incredible squalls that rolled through the region.

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I was in high school in Cumberland in '77 and it was the biggest waste of non-stop cold weather I've ever experienced.  We had flurries for weeks and when we did get an inch or two of snow, it turned into a glacier in a day or so.  If you like cold temps, that season was legend.  But the snow wasn't the kind you shovel or sweep.  A chisel would have been more appropriate.

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4 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

94 was an exception . Lots of juiced storms along with incredible cold for 6 weeks . I'm not sure 77 had the far reaching record lows like 94 but I could be wrong. 

77 was pretty cold but I think it was not the duration...77 winter broke in early February I think.  94 was sustained cold from the arctic front on Xmas until March.  The core of the cold was still further NW of us in 94 it was just SOOOOO cold it was still plenty cold here.  But you don't want the PV over Ohio if you want snow.  

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29 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I was only 7 and living in NJ.  All I know is according to the local coop here there was only 11.5" of snow the entire winter and no single event more then 3".  In 132 years of records I compiled using coop data it was the 4th least snowy winter and the 2nd worse in terms of the most pathetic "greatest snowfall" at 3".  Only 1950 was worse.  It's one of only 3 years in 132 that didn't feature a warning level event here.  I don't care how amazing that cold front was that would have been a horrible winter that I would never want to go through again and would probably try to block from my memory.  Looking at records it was also much colder then average which is another reason I do not chase arctic outbreaks.  The often do us no good wrt snow.  

I totally understand for your area, but for IAD and DCA, the 84/85 snow total was higher than *six* of the last ten seasons. A 10” month is often a climb for DCA, but 1/85 managed to hit that mark. A repeat down here would be subpar but on the upper band of that kind of winter and the extreme cold wave would mark it as memorable. 

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51 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

just messing with ya, it was a good piece of pattern recognition by you.  I agree that there is an elevated threat of a storm there

You can see the nice trend on the eps today as well. Hopefully we see eps start honing in on it more over the next few days. Gfs also had that quick spike in the pna which allowed that wave to dig as far as it did. Seeing slightly better pna ridging today hopefully that continues. HA event potentially. That 50/50 region is hawt. Just need spacing to work out

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1994, remember that well too!  Burned through about half of my vacation time because it was impossible to get up the hill from our home! 

Lots of ice, rain on top of snow, froze solid, snow on top of it.  Felt sorry for anyone that had to dig, even the big excavators couldn't move around.  And if you fell on a slight incline, better hold on because you were going all the way down!  Lots of humming at night, eerie blue-green flashes all around and poof!  Spending lots of my younger times at sea I was accustomed to the humming of two stroke diesels so I had no problem sleeping during the long outages.  I do prefer the throb of the prime movers though and pity those depending on 3600 rpm natural gas gennies to keep their freezers humming in the south when the big canes tear the overheads down as far as the eye can see.

1977, lived just outside of the beltway (between Carney and Parkville) and remember the freezing over of the inner harbor and Chesapeake Bay!  Holy Moly if there is a winter that could be called a mini ice age that was it!  People were driving across the harbor!

In April we went down to our beach home on Nabbs Creek to be greeted by ice over 5" thick!  The air bubblers weren't able to keep up and the dock was in moderately poor shape with lots of heaved pilings.

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2 minutes ago, Stormfly said:

1994, remember that well too!  Burned through about half of my vacation time because it was impossible to get up the hill from our home! 

Lots of ice, rain on top of snow, froze solid, snow on top of it.  Felt sorry for anyone that had to dig, even the big excavators couldn't move around.  And if you fell on a slight incline, better hold on because you were going all the way down!  Lots of humming at night, eerie blue-green flashes all around and poof!  Spending lots of my younger times at sea I was accustomed to the humming of two stroke diesels so I had no problem sleeping during the long outages.  I do prefer the throb of the prime movers though and pity those depending on 3600 rpm natural gas gennies to keep their freezers humming in the south when the big canes tear the overheads down as far as the eye can see.

1977, lived just outside of the beltway (between Carney and Parkville) and remember the freezing over of the inner harbor and Chesapeake Bay!  Holy Moly if there is a winter that could be called a mini ice age that was it!  People were driving across the harbor!

In April we went down to our beach home on Nabbs Creek to be greeted by ice over 5" thick!  The air bubblers weren't able to keep up and the dock was in moderately poor shape with lots of heaved pilings.

I was only 8 years old but I remember missing a lot of school & ice skating ON THE GRASS with my mom in our backyard up in Philly hah. Which is crazy if you think about in today’s climo

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Yoinked this from the southeast thread but it seems to make sense and thought you people would like to see it. 

 

I've seen him post about this a few times, but Anthony M has this theory / observation about storm evolution during retrograding -NAO blocks....the first few storms track north (across New England) and feed into the developing block, then the next one or two storms are suppressed events when the block is retrograding (best potential across the South), with the finale being a traditional Mid-Atlantic to New England nor' easter as the block lifts out.

The previous retrograding block episode that we just had went down that way.  There was a storm across New England on Jan 26...then the Raleigh thundersnow storm on Jan 28, then the traditional nor'easter on Feb 1

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24 minutes ago, Wentzadelphia said:

I was only 8 years old but I remember missing a lot of school & ice skating ON THE GRASS with my mom in our backyard up in Philly hah. Which is crazy if you think about in today’s climo

And then the Great Blizzard of '78!!! I was on Long Island for that one. 

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15 minutes ago, Wentzadelphia said:

I was only 8 years old but I remember missing a lot of school & ice skating ON THE GRASS with my mom in our backyard up in Philly hah. Which is crazy if you think about in today’s climo

Was in high school at that time.  Ice storm after ice storm. I think we went 2 months without having a full week of school. My sister fractured her arm ice skating in the back yard that year.

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DT hasnt given up on the Sunday event either....Models really should converge on a solution tomorrow being its only about 72 hours away

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1 hour ago, clskinsfan said:

85 was cold for sure. But it is no comparison to 77. That is the coldest winter I have ever experienced in my lifetime. Hell it snowed in Miami for goodness sake. 

https://www.washingtonpost.com/archive/politics/1977/01/18/record-cold-cripples-area/2279dc16-0ff4-467d-add1-605e56558b8f/

I know the bay froze and everything in 77.. but I am pretty sure that there was a stretch in February 2015 where our area break record low max temps multiple days in a row.. I feel like that would have rivaled 77.   I am also pretty sure that the last 10-15 years have been some of the coldest and snowiest on record for us.. especially if you look at extreme/ anomalous events.

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yeah Feb 15 - 20 2015.. thats one of our coldest stretches we ever seen (7 records over these days (bwi))

 

15  45  27 0.11 0.3  77 /1949  18 /2015+  6 /2015+ 51 /1949  1.06 1958 11.5 1958 
16  45  27 0.10 0.3  75 /1954  18 /2015+  5 /2015+ 55 /1954  2.01 2003 21.8 2003 
17  45  27 0.11 0.4  76 /1976  12 /1958   3 /1958  58*/1891  1.15 1982  7.8 1893 
18  46  27 0.10 0.2  75 /1976  13 /1979   3 /1979  51 /2011  1.60 1887  5.7 1964 
19  46  27 0.10 0.3  72 /1997  18 /2015   5 /1903  49 /2017  1.76 1927 16.4 1979 
20  46  27 0.11 0.3  76 /2018+ 18 /2015+  1 /2015  57 /1939  1.81 1924  9.9 1947 

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36 minutes ago, Chris78 said:

Was in high school at that time.  Ice storm after ice storm. I think we went 2 months without having a full week of school. My sister fractured her arm ice skating in the back yard that year.

94?

The late January mixed storm literally missed my yard by like 20 miles with all snow . 18" fell just north while I got 5-6 inches of heavy sleet . The other 2 big hits were zrain and sleet combos in Westminster at the time . There was a couple snow hits too just can't remember totals. 

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1 minute ago, blueberryfaygo said:

yeah Feb 15 - 20 2015.. thats one of our coldest stretches we ever seen (7 records over these days (bwi))

 

15  45  27 0.11 0.3  77 /1949  18 /2015+  6 /2015+ 51 /1949  1.06 1958 11.5 1958 
16  45  27 0.10 0.3  75 /1954  18 /2015+  5 /2015+ 55 /1954  2.01 2003 21.8 2003 
17  45  27 0.11 0.4  76 /1976  12 /1958   3 /1958  58*/1891  1.15 1982  7.8 1893 
18  46  27 0.10 0.2  75 /1976  13 /1979   3 /1979  51 /2011  1.60 1887  5.7 1964 
19  46  27 0.10 0.3  72 /1997  18 /2015   5 /1903  49 /2017  1.76 1927 16.4 1979 
20  46  27 0.11 0.3  76 /2018+ 18 /2015+  1 /2015  57 /1939  1.81 1924  9.9 1947 

There was a 2-3 week impressive cold stretch in 15 . I remember working outside the whole time.  It was tough but 94 was incredible cold 

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2 hours ago, losetoa6 said:

One takeaway from Gefs for Sunday I see is there's higher hieghts off the NE coast vs 12z . Could allow for a storm to climb further north before exiting stage right . 

Eps also improved with better hieghts ne of NE . Its 1 variable but a helpful 1 I think if we want a shot at Sunday. 

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