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WinterWxLuvr

Feb Long Range Discussion (Day 3 and beyond) - MERGED

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Just now, psuhoffman said:

Don’t sell yourself short 

are you in a bad mood today lol? its only frozen water. Get a grip!

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Just now, Ji said:

Can we just start a thread for the Jan 28 storm?

We did it’s day 7 so it’s in the day 3-7 thread.  Just be glad we have so many threats it’s confusing...that’s a new and good problem to have. Back in the day we just started a storm specific thread pretty early but now everyone is like NOOOO it will kill it because some decided it’s our threads and not our crap climo that kills storms. Short of going back to specific threads having short/medium/long range threads seems the best we can do. 

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3 minutes ago, Ji said:

are you in a bad mood today lol? its only frozen water. Get a grip!

Chill I’m just teasing you. I’m probably your biggest fan in here so calm yourself. 

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3 minutes ago, frd said:

 

DAMN !!!!!!!!!!

 

Screen Shot 2021-01-21 at 1.41.24 PM.png

Wish that was farther W and crawling the coast but given it is progged to keep trucking E could still pack a quick punch with those dynamics in the Mid Atlantic and near the coast.

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Just now, Ralph Wiggum said:

Wish that was farther W and crawling the coast but given it is progged to keep trucking E could still pack a quick punch with those dynamics in the Mid Atlantic and near the coast.

Yeah, it needs to be farther southwest and it's an absolute beast.

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5 minutes ago, osfan24 said:

Yeah, it needs to be farther southwest and it's an absolute beast.

As progged verbatim, coastal areas would get a long overdue warning criteria event at the very least (amount other areas of course). Enjoy for another 12 hours we know it will change one way or the other.

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20 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Chill I’m just teasing you. I’m probably your biggest only fan in here so calm yourself. 

noted!

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Going to unpin this temporarily as we have plenty to track within the next week. If any people really want to talk early February, this is the place.

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16 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Wish that was farther W and crawling the coast but given it is progged to keep trucking E could still pack a quick punch with those dynamics in the Mid Atlantic and near the coast.

Like I said last night this setup reminds me of PD1. Now that was a max anomalous outcome so that doesn’t mean we get that exact outcome. But I expect models are underestimating the intensity of lift along the inverted trough as it slams into the confluence from the block.  If that setup holds there will be some pretty good banding stretched NW along the trough from the surface low.  It will hit a brick wall though somewhere. My guess is Philly ends up ok but it’s close...any further north though...:yikes:

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Just now, psuhoffman said:

Like I said last night this setup reminds me of PD1. Now that was a max anomalous outcome so that doesn’t mean we get that exact outcome. But I expect models are underestimating the intensity of lift along the inverted trough as it slams into the confluence from the block.  If that setup holds there will be some pretty good banding stretched NW along the trough from the surface low.  It will hit a brick wall though somewhere. My guess is Philly ends up ok but it’s close...any further north though...:yikes:

Is that a good :yikes: or a concerned about downside :yikes:

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7 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Going to unpin this temporarily as we have plenty to track within the next week. If any people really want to talk early February, this is the place.

oops. i just repinned it. 

edit to add: i unpinned it again. sorry!

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Just now, Ralph Wiggum said:

Is that a good :yikes: or a concerned about downside :yikes:

I think you end up south of that brick wall it’s fine but this won’t gain a lot of latitude on the coast imo. 

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7 minutes ago, JakkelWx said:

Looking good.

18CA4798-E31F-41F6-84BB-394EFAEBF645.png

Best of the season so far I believe. 

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I would think a few days after this could be the event of the - AO cycle 

 

 

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Looking further into Feb. hopefully the retraction delivers by early Feb, then we may go the other way with a Pac extension.  

 

 

 

 

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@psuhoffman

Even going into early Feb , not bad.  You said it would be decent until the retrogression gets us to around the 3  rd. Here we are at the 5 th,

 

 57AFBC32-507C-4FA1-BB29-46508675F0ED.png

 

 

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22 minutes ago, frd said:

@psuhoffman

Even going into early Feb , not bad.  You said it would be decent until the retrogression gets us to around the 3  rd. Here we are at the 5 th,

 

 57AFBC32-507C-4FA1-BB29-46508675F0ED.png

 

 

That’s a cutter look though. Way too much ridge in front. If we were to see a 50/50 in future looks it could morph into a transfer setup but the first wave as the trough progresses east (after reversal from current retrogression) is likely a cutter. After that we could get waves depending on how suppressed the SE ridge gets. Too far out to guess yet. Feb is murky but not a shutout look Imo. 

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2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

That’s a cutter look though. Way too much ridge in front. If we were to see a 50/50 in future looks it could morph into a transfer setup but the first wave as the trough progresses east (after reversal from current retrogression) is likely a cutter. After that we could get waves depending on how suppressed the SE ridge gets. Too far out to guess yet. Feb is murky but not a shutout look Imo. 

Yes, Feb. may not be a shutout. Regarding March,  I am intrigued if we can maintain the  - NAO going into March when the wavelengths shorten. Who knows maybe the coldest to average temps could sneak into that time period. Being a shoulder month with a weaker vortex and another Pac retraction. 

 

Here is mid Feb

 

Screenshot_20210121-153540_Chrome.jpg

 

 

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EPS members snow/sleet totals (inches) for the last 9 runs (College Park) through 00 UT Feb 3

90th percentile: 9 15 12 15 12 16 18 12 13

80th percentile: 6 10 11 9 10 12 13 9 11

70th percentile: 6 6 9 8 7 11 11 8 9

60th percentile: 4 5 8 6 6 7 9 7 7

50th percentile: 3 4 6 5 4 6 7 6 6

40th percentile: 2 3 4 4 4 5 6 5 6

30th percentile: 2 1 4 3 3 4 5 4 5

20th percentile: 0.7 0.6 3 2 2 3 3 4 3

10th percentile: 0.5 0.3 1 1 1 1 3 3 1

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19 minutes ago, frd said:

Yes, Feb. may not be a shutout. Regarding March,  I am intrigued if we can maintain the  - NAO going into March when the wavelengths shorten. Who knows maybe the coldest to average temps could sneak into that time period. Being a shoulder month with a weaker vortex and another Pac retraction. 

 

Here is mid Feb

 

Screenshot_20210121-153540_Chrome.jpg

 

 

That’s actually a pretty good look. Shades of 2014 and 2015. Those years achieved that through a different mechanism on the Atlantic side...a trapped tpv. That setup has pac ridge further west but a -NAO to offset. The result is a similar pattern over the conus. Wouldn’t be as cold but a good storm track in Feb and early March is ok so long as we’re not torching and we shouldn’t be in that look. 

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@frd just looked. After a relax the weeklies imply another surge of the NAO from Feb 10-15 which sets off a progression that would be very favorable from about Feb 16 through into mid March here. Huge if but that pattern would imply we get another crack at a snowy period later in winter. 

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