Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    16,910
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    blackrdr69
    Newest Member
    blackrdr69
    Joined

Feb Long Range Discussion (Day 3 and beyond) - MERGED


WinterWxLuvr
 Share

Recommended Posts

4 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Do we have anything left in the tank here?  Can we do one more?  Is anything real on the horizon?

The blocking is definitely waning but there are still signs of enough ridging at times that with shorter wavelengths it’s possible to get a system to track under us.  

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, Cobalt said:

RGEM would probably work for Monday. Brings in precip way sooner so temps don't have a chance to rise during the day, while 850s are barely hanging on. 

850s barely hanging on work around here almost never. 

  • Thanks 1
  • Haha 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Also...it can and will still snow in DC. Just like it can snow in Texas and Seattle. But anecdotal evidence like that does not argue one way or the other that snow isn’t getting harder to achieve here. Just like if we do get a 30”+ winter next year or say that crazy 24” VA storm from 12z gfs ends up hitting us next week that wouldn’t argue snow isn’t becoming less frequent here. It wouldn’t erase the last 5 years. I also can’t prove my theory because it’s too short a time still. But I have a hunch. And data does support that the frequency of single digit snowfall seasons in DC and Baltimore are going up. 

Last 5 years...What makes them different from other 5 year stretches? I mean...just looking at the numbers...I see other 5-year stretched containing a single digit totals (like the early 90s--the 4 years preceeding the winter with the March 1993 storm looked pretty mediocre with 3 single-digit totals. Granted, a mod nino may have been disrupted by Pinatubo). 

That being said...I do see that since 2011 we've had 3 of our lowest winters. NOW....with that, I have to wonder if we just drew a bad ++++++AO card twice in that time span (unless the AO spiking like that has something to do with you-know-what)

Link to comment
Share on other sites

38 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Yeah but what if the specifics are what caused things to be 2C warmer? Lol I mean no cold on our side of the globe is a pretty big specific!! I mean no wonder the blocking didn't work in January!

It was def cold in russia/asia but Canada can torch for days, weeks, or months and all it would take is an epo ridge and it would get very cold in no time. Like 5 days or less.

Our temp problems are almost always 1 of 2 things. Southeast ridge or pac maritime air filling up canada or the conus. The pac jet has been persistently bad but nothing is permanent. There are cycles in cycles going on all around us with all kinds of things (pdo, amo, ao, nao, enso, etc). When they line up things are great and when they dont it sucks. I figured this year would stink since back in the fall. Blocking will always get my attention. So far it hasnt been enough. Boom or bust is just how we roll in these parts

  • Thanks 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

15 minutes ago, Cobalt said:

Check out the SST anomalies off the Atlantic. Not sure how long they've been torching, but offshore temp anomalies are among the warmest on the planet atm. Would that also contribute to some of our airmasses being rather terrible, or at least less than ideal? Would make some sense given the dynamics of the banding in the Dec 16-17 storm, as well as the fact that every arctic airmass that was progged to reach us essentially danced around us. Even if they'd contribute just a tiny bit, as you've mentioned, +1C or +2C can take everything away, especially if you're already factoring in somewhat less QPF in these setups. 

The Atlantic bathtub certainly can't help, but I will be personally focusing on the Pacific next winter at least for a first evaluation.  If and only if it cooperates will I worry about what the HL/Atlantic are doing.

Actually I would like to ask you guys about this: when exactly was the last time we had a "good Pacific"?  I know the last three years it has ranged from sub-mediocre to horrible.  I remember that two week period at the end of 2017, beginning of 2018 which brought extreme cold to the east.  It doesn't seem to be too fondly remembered up here because it was just cold/dry, but it was fun for my neck of the woods so I am calling that "good".  Other than that when was the last good Pacific period?  2013 - 14?  I don't really remember it being particularly good or bad in 2014-15.  2016-17 was a very bad winter for me because I had that December torch but I didn't have the Jan 2016 event to sweeten it.  I associated the problems with that year being from the super-duper-hyper el nino though.  Not sure if that is the same kind of "bad Pacific" we usually mean.  I think the Pacific was mostly bad in 2016-17 as well.  So two weeks of "good Pacific in the last six years?  is that accurate?

 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

20 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

The blocking is definitely waning but there are still signs of enough ridging at times that with shorter wavelengths it’s possible to get a system to track under us.  

Sad that the -NAO is running out of gas right when it could be most useful and not be so dependent on the Pacific to help.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, cbmclean said:

Sad that the -NAO is running out of gas right when it could be most useful and not be so dependent on the Pacific to help.

This time of year it doesnt matter as much. Wavelengths shorten and upper level bowling balls start rolling down the lanes. 

  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, Bob Chill said:

This time of year it doesnt matter as much. Wavelengths shorten and upper level bowling balls start rolling down the lanes. 

Yes, but I was under the impression that the shortening of wavelengths allows a tendency for -NAOs to be especially potent even without Pacific help.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Don’t look at the 6z GFS for next Friday if you feel like you are done with tracking this winter.  Or look at it knowing it won’t be there later.  Your choice. 
The "BIG DOGs" are sniffed out early. Right? . I looked and its locked in.

Sent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk

  • Haha 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Don’t look at the 6z GFS for next Friday if you feel like you are done with tracking this winter.  Or look at it knowing it won’t be there later.  Your choice. 
You got my hopes up only to see a shredded storn
  • Like 1
  • Haha 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

9 hours ago, stormtracker said:

?  GFS is a hard no for Monday unless I'm looking at the wrong maps?   And the GFS appears to be on crack for tomm

I don't like that Monday threat for us in the metros at all.  Stale/retreating cold air, coming through during the day.  If we even got frozen it would probably be white rain.  Next Friday has a little more potential in my opinion with (maybe) a wave tracking under us with some fresher cold. 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

6 minutes ago, mattie g said:

Personal opinion...gotta be PA/NJ and north to be in the Northeast. Northern Delaware works, too.

Not a perfect match, and maybe it’s more cultural than meteorological Northeastern-ness up there.

I think MD eastern shore and areas south of Rt 50 are culturally Southern.  Other areas are Northeast.  NoVA is also probably Northeast now. 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, WxUSAF said:

I think MD eastern shore and areas south of Rt 50 are culturally Southern.  Other areas are Northeast.  NoVA is also probably Northeast now. 

Prepare for everyone in NoVA to be offended by this but....

NoVA feels to me a lot like Long Island.  It looks similar with the strip malls and divided highways.  The houses look the same.  The traffic is comparable. The population density is comparable.   The people that live there seem like they used to live in the big city and sort of carry that big city attitude with them just like Long Island. 

I'll see myself out now :ph34r:

  • Like 1
  • Haha 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, WxUSAF said:

I think MD eastern shore and areas south of Rt 50 are culturally Southern.  Other areas are Northeast.  NoVA is also probably Northeast now. 

At least half of my neighbors are from NY/NJ me included and are either gov contractors or govies.  

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...