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WinterWxLuvr

Feb Long Range Discussion (Day 3 and beyond) - MERGED

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12 minutes ago, EHoffman said:

Damn I really triggered a lot of people in this here thread, I promise I won't boast much when we're pouring sleet after an inch of wet snow.

Can you please stop saying wet snow? You may very well get sleet, freezing rain or just plain rain but you aren’t getting wet snow.

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1 minute ago, Bob Chill said:

Is nobody getting the "Now I will kill you until you die from it" quote? I mean come on. I'm piggybacking here. Lol

Hot shots? Part Deax?

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Just now, WinterWxLuvr said:

Can you please stop saying wet snow? You may very well get sleet, freezing rain or just plain rain but you aren’t getting wet snow.

definitely nothing for DC. 

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1 minute ago, mappy said:

definitely eventually 

If not now, definitely later. If not later, this place will become a padded room. Not sure what outcome I really want to see... hmmm... decisions...

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3 minutes ago, mappy said:

I can definitively say that eventually, LWX will issue a watch, or a warning, or an advisory and people will definitely hug the snowiest model, and psu will definitely see more than the rest of us. 

Warnings make it snow more

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The way I am thinking about Thursday is these snow to sleet to freezing rain (to rain or dryslot) events happen with some regularity in our area. We often do fine on the front end thump for 2-4” for DC metro. Sometimes we get a pleasant overperformer like 12/14/03 or 2/25/07 where it’s more like 4-5”. Maybe the best all-time would be 2/21/15 where I received 7+” in North Bethesda and upper MoCo hit a foot. What the GFS is putting out for the first 12-hrs of QPF is very anomalous... in that all-time category type of way. I hope it verifies for sure, but I would be satisfied with a more typical event. 

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Just now, WinterWxLuvr said:

Warnings make it snow more

That's a given. Especially if your office is the first in the region to issue them.

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3 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

But again, the factually correct post that you gave a weenie to stands.  Yes, the NAM has had the hot hand and with other storms, it was the first to show things falling apart.  But in every case, it was a follow the leader thing, all the others models started to cave to it.   That's not happening this time.  NAM is alone.   Now if the Euro goes west, then year, that's when I worry.  

I don;t like having the NAM on board either, but I don't think it's time for the whoa is me posts quite yet, because this isn't the same as before.    Still time to go that way tho.

Whoa is me.  Hahahahahah. Woe horsey, woe

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12z GEFS mean is another tick south compared to 6z.  These are contaminated with sleet but the max stripe shifted south.  Supports a 3-6” thump to sleet.

2CC965A5-25D2-4E33-AB9D-40ABEED5ECD5.png

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Just now, gymengineer said:

The way I am thinking about Thursday is these snow to sleet to freezing rain (to rain or dryslot) events happen with some regularity in our area. We often do fine on the front end thump for 2-4” for DC metro. Sometimes we get a pleasant overperformer like 12/14/03 or 2/25/07 where it’s more like 4-5”. Maybe the best all-time would be 2/21/05 where I received 7+” in North Bethesda and upper MoCo hit a foot. What the GFS is putting out for the first 12-hrs of QPF is very anomalous... in that all-time category type of way. I hope it verifies for sure, but I would be satisfied with a more typical event. 

Your dives into history are awesome. I love it as I cant drill down to the level of detail you do with memory. That said, if thurs isnt a carbon copy of the Feb 2014 all snow west track, it's an abject failure. Dont lose sight of ingrained irrationality and foolishness here. 

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2 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

Warnings make it snow more

Not for DC

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2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

If not now, definitely later. If not later, this place will become a padded room. Not sure what outcome I really want to see... hmmm... decisions...

Randy said I couldn't leave him this week, so I will have to vote for the non-padded room version to keep my sanity. 

2 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

Warnings make it snow more

thats what I hear. 

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Just now, stormtracker said:

The time for revenge is always close by

Will LWX post warnings before you do?

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6 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

But again, the factually correct post that you gave a weenie to stands.  Yes, the NAM has had the hot hand and with other storms, it was the first to show things falling apart.  But in every case, it was a follow the leader thing, all the others models started to cave to it.   That's not happening this time.  NAM is alone.   Now if the Euro goes west, then year, that's when I worry.  

I don;t like having the NAM on board either, but I don't think it's time for the whoa is me posts quite yet, because this isn't the same as before.    Still time to go that way tho.

Make no mistake, when we get our 5" on Thursday I'm finding where you live and throwing a snowball at you.

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Just now, stormtracker said:

The time for revenge is always close by

Talk happiness. The world is sad enough without your whoa 

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Been here since 2012, live in RVA now but have so much respect for all of you. Is it safe to say the models have continued to trend colder the past 48 hours for Thursday and folks in Richmond should really start being concerned about a repeat form Sat/Sun on Thursday for an ice storm?

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1 minute ago, EHoffman said:

Make no mistake, when we get our 5" on Thursday I'm finding where you live and throwing a snowball at you.

There's going to be too much snow to even make it up that hill on Conn. Ave.

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1 minute ago, mappy said:

Talk happiness. The world is sad enough without your whoa 

There will be so much whoa when a storm thread is started and everything goes NAM

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1 minute ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

If we start a thread, can we please wait until after 12z runs on Wednesday? 

I say 00z Thursday just to be safe

 

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1 minute ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

If we start a thread, can we please wait until after 12z runs on Wednesday? 

thinking tomorrow at the earliest. 

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