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WxUSAF

January Storm Term Threat Discussions (Day 3 - Day 7)

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Just now, stormtracker said:

It's better than nothing, but not heavy snow.  I'd rather have that than the 18z, that's for sure.

Got it.  It’s not Cool Ranch blue...but still blue

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Just now, stormtracker said:

Yeah, Para is decent and better than the OG GFS

How about having them meet in the middle?

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5 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

It also doesn’t help that even a direct shot of Arctic air isn’t really all that deep to resist a fairly weak wave. 

Can you clarify what "deep" means in this context?  Do you mean that the air mass isn't that cold?  Or that the cold is only shallow to the surface?  Both?  Neither?

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Just now, yoda said:

Better view of the para GFS accums

snku_acc.us_ma.thumb.png.f49f71c90cb4c41d8488dad9bba78903.png

yep. Yoga. That works for me

  • Haha 2

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Just now, psuhoffman said:

We can afford to shift that 30 miles south...let’s be gracious here. 

Man your right though. Such a small swath of snow. Won't take much to go from the bullseye to nothing real quick.

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1 minute ago, clskinsfan said:

CMC is toasty to start. Looks a lot like the 18Z GFS at 120.

A 1004mb SLP in C WV at 132 makes no friends here

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3 minutes ago, cbmclean said:

Can you clarify what "deep" means in this context?  Do you mean that the air mass isn't that cold?  Or that the cold is only shallow to the surface?  Both?  Neither?

Both...it’s not nearly as cold or expansive as you would expect given its origin.
D989DF89-BD71-4CA5-9FF6-A3CA5D3F58D9.thumb.jpeg.c65a8adb35485d4f4b11a16d403c2a57.jpeg

It’s easily bullied by the southerly mid level flow of a relatively weak wave. That’s sad. 

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CMC is all snow but i thought it would give us alot more precip 

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8 minutes ago, Chris78 said:

Man your right though. Such a small swath of snow. Won't take much to go from the bullseye to nothing real quick.

Yea I’ll give 30 miles...but not 31!!!!!

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1 minute ago, clskinsfan said:

CMC Cooled off quick in the upper levels with the precip. Nice hit. 

 

1 minute ago, Ji said:

CMC is all snow but i thought it would give us alot more precip 

Weird... def thought that was going to be a rainer here seeing the SLP in WV at 132

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Just now, stormtracker said:

Trying to see what the bellyaching about the CMC was about?  It's all snow and still going at 138.  Not a boom, but hey....

Yes... just surprised it is snow with that SLP position 

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