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Typhoon Tip

Dec (Edit: Jan1/..2 ) multi-faceted ptype mess potential...

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1 hour ago, powderfreak said:

These shouldn’t be bad. You can clearly see the modeled p-types.  Those snow maps only count the snow portion of it.

Like that snow map didn’t count the heavy sleet in Mass.

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I'm not even sure how we will get down this driveway with 4-6" of snow. Supposed to depart on Saturday. 

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19 minutes ago, Modfan2 said:

Going to be decent ping fest mixed from from the pike to CT border; crazy how it stops at the CT line.

We ping.. Expecting 1 to 2 here

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5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Nah, ground is warm.

Well this one would be that the trees are warm. But it's only 30s today so not a big deal. My head hurts from too many flavoured Smirnoffs last night. 

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Could be a nice little sleet bomb for 3 hours here. Hopefully it starts as a couple hours of snow to at least whiten everything up good. 

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11 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

That 12z HRRR went nuts.  Looks very excessive.  Not sure how it gets 1”+ QPF.

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That looks nuts lol. NAM seemed more realistic. Enjoy the snow there and hopefully the start to more widespread fun. 

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Was March 2013 a late phase similar to 00z gfs/cmc etc? I remember the models starting to show the same type of deal at this range. I went and storm chased down and Virginia for a bust instead of going to SNE a few days later

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Just now, Wentzadelphia said:

Was March 2013 a late phase similar to 00z gfs/cmc etc? I remember the models starting to show the same type of deal at this range. I went and storm chased down and Virginia for a bust instead of going to SNE a few days later

It was a late phase but the whole thing was much further southeast....and t ended up creating like a 700-800 mile firehose in the mid levels coming out of the east. 

Had 23 inches in that one in ORH. 

This one if it does phase and stall would happen much further north...it wouldn’t be an easterly firehose setup. It would be a rotting CCB/deformation. 

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For the ice enthusiasts ... too bad this didn't time in just a little faster.  The set up might have benefited from 'cold air capping' ( CAC ) ...It's when radiational cooling insituates a mass of thus-made overly achieved cold air. Then, within an hour of dawn ceiling quickly overspreads and limits the amount of diurnal recovery. 

Dec 1997 did that, the 'snow bomb' storm.  May very well be singularly the most proficient positive bust either imaginable, or verified in history.  The only thing that would out perform that forecast f'up would be predicting the Hadean and ending up in the Pleistocene. Anyway, this CAC factor was a sneaky value-add in why that storm so elegantly ( or egregiously depending on one's job status...) busted cold. It was supposed to be like one of those 31 F start uppers that goes to glop ... ending as drizzle for an inch right of I-95, to perhaps 2-4" in the ORH Hills... The only thing that forecast did reasonably well with was where the snow would fall... Everything else?  - rectal glue.

When the tiny uniform aggregates palled the atmosphere down to orb headlights, muting Industrial white noise to sign-language ...even idiots were presciently channeling something was dreadfully wrong.  Turn on tele, no advisories.  Star lights twinkling in the sky like diamonds earlier that fateful morning... 5am - radiational cooling having squeezed out another 8 points off the DP ... It was like 19/19 ... 31 my ass - don't tell me that didn't contribute.   By 8 am, the sky was the flat expanse of an upside-down chalk board ... totally smooth, grim and gray ...utterly devoid of differentiation, staring into infinity overcast ... and, it was still ... 19 F 

I don't think where I lived at the time, Acton Ma, ever saw an aggregate size bigger than say  oh ..10 or 15 plates and dendrite  in shattering clumps - which if you are a bona fide truly honorable socially belated nerd, you know that single dendrites, plates and rods are actually small ..very small! 

We dipped to 19 F here ... hmm... Alas, the sun won't shine this way in May - no way! 

This appetizer event has been bumping out in time inches as we've neared. If the ceilings came in and we got this underway.. a meso /secondary zygote circulation and the certain tuck/barrier jet formulation ...work together and 'synergize' an icer outcome... 

Even not so...I am not even convinced seeing a closed surface circulation under PVD will really even warm to 33 F where I am in Ayer along Rt Poop... and I wonder about the eastern slopes of the Watchusetts hills there down into the valley below the ORH Airport ...

This system's subtle slowing as it nears... This reminds me of what I was mentioning to Will the other day ..about how sometimes the behavior of the circulation medium begins to act or behave prior to the onset of pattern change ..it's like physics of the models begin detection prior to the coherent observation of what ever is coming in space and time. In this case, this slowing of the event space - that predates the arrival of the more obvious "slowing influence of the NAO" ... We started sensing this in some of the guidance...

By the way, I think the Euro is fiddling with the NAO's ballast ( geographically..) which in present nuanced form is allowing it to conserve more progressive character to the flow upon this thing's departure... 

Lot of complexity... This system transitively effects the next for the 4th+ ... which should probably be written into that thread but... This whole -NAO may parlay a 10-day sub-winter in winter here. It hearkens to the Met professor's philosophy from the middle part of last Century about how these  R-wave events are like planetary storms, with each period of amplitude contained being like analogs to gusts of wind just having interludes.

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12 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

That looks nuts lol. NAM seemed more realistic. Enjoy the snow there and hopefully the start to more widespread fun. 

Yeah I’ve been stuck at 3-7” for northern half of VT for several days.  Dense on 0.50-0.75” water. We’ll see some sleet or ZR before the better lift moves back in.  Looked like soundings had two distinct times of lift... first with warm front then again on the back end when the vort swings through.

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20 minutes ago, Wentzadelphia said:

Out of its range, but fwiw. It’s still snowing from VT into ME at 84 hours here...

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12z Herpes gone wild too, over an inch of water here just like HRRR.  I think they are on the juice literally.

I think these are too far south to be honest with the mid-level warmth, but we’ll see.

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