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40/70 Benchmark

January 2021

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3 minutes ago, Bobbydoppler said:

Haha, on my heels haha...its the GFS 500mb.  I should've included it when I clipped it from the site. 

I'm curious because that differs down stream with the wave orientation at larger scales... That's allowing that NJ Model nuke to do that open wave quick strike event like that implies.  

But, being so far out in time - its probably a red herring anyway. I think that error is going to be ginormous in that time frame.  We're probably going to be looking a different cinema at different time intervals on every run... ha

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1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I'm curious because that differs down stream with the wave orientation at larger scales... That's allowing that NJ Model nuke to do that open wave quick strike event like that implies.  

But, being so far out in time - its probably a red herring anyway. I think that error is going to be ginormous in that time frame.  We're probably going to be looking a different cinema at different time intervals on every run... ha

Hopefully a snowy cinema for once-

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17 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I'm curious because that differs down stream with the wave orientation at larger scales... That's allowing that NJ Model nuke to do that open wave quick strike event like that implies.  

But, being so far out in time - its probably a red herring anyway. I think that error is going to be ginormous in that time frame.  We're probably going to be looking a different cinema at different time intervals on every run... ha

Tip, as usual, I have no idea what that means and I appreciate your reply, and I think part of it was that there will be fluctuations in how these maps look given the time frame.

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30 minutes ago, Bobbydoppler said:

Tip, as usual, I have no idea what that means and I appreciate your reply, and I think part of it was that there will be fluctuations in how these maps look given the time frame.

Your language is stangely concise.  Please state your thoughts in 300 words or more.

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I love Tip's post.  Just read them more closely, it's good discipline.  Also, be thankful that a Met is willing to post so fulsomely for all us weenies.

 

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5 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Laying out? Washing and waxing the cars? Laying sod maybe? How are you enjoying it?

Getting a jump on next years crop. Couldn't ask for better wood gathering weather.  The field was empty about a month ago.

 

w1.jpg

w2.jpg

w3.jpg

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27 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Persistence until mid week next week is what we have all been saying all month, you clown lol One week from today is the 20th. 

It was the 10th, then the 12th, then after the 15th. Then there was a storm the 18th.. then the 20th. Now it’s the 23rd

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7 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

It was the 10th, then the 12th, then after the 15th. Then there was a storm the 18th.. then the 20th. Now it’s the 23rd

Just close the shades man. We’ll see you in March. 

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7 minutes ago, Dr. Dews said:

Deja vu 2019-2020

Yeah, no. I got my entire '19-'20 winter in one system in December. Even with a boring month, this is way better. 

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1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Remember when I won WOTY? Would you prefer that person or the realist now?

You aren’t being a realist. You are doing exactly what you did in 2013. You even kept pretending that the Feb ‘13 blizzard threat was going to miss until it became really obvious like 60-72 hours out. 

It’s possible we keep whiffing in the upcoming pattern, but it has nothing to do with what happened earlier in the month. 

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7 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

You aren’t being a realist. You are doing exactly what you did in 2013. You even kept pretending that the Feb ‘13 blizzard threat was going to miss until it became really obvious like 60-72 hours out. 

It’s possible we keep whiffing in the upcoming pattern, but it has nothing to do with what happened earlier in the month. 

My point is .. how many times can the boy cry wolf until no one listens? Until we actually have a snowstorm, it’s just guessing and hoping. Just because modeling shows patterns changing and snow.. it doesn’t mean it will happen. It certainly may, but it’s hard for most folks to get excited or to buy into these guarantees here of snowy pattern when we’ve been hearing that boy crying since Jan 5th. I truly hope things change and they’re right. I’m not saying you guys won’t be right.. just urging persistence until we’re looking into the barrel of the beast.

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Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

My point is .. how many times can the boy cry wolf until no one listens? Until we actually have a snowstorm, it’s just guessing and hoping. Just because modeling shows patterns changing and snow.. it doesn’t mean it will happen. It certainly may, but it’s hard for most folks to get excited or ti but into these guarantees here if snowy pattern when we’ve been hearing that boy crying since Jan 5th. I truly hope things change and they’re right. 

Who guaranteed snowstorms?

It should be common knowledge for someone like you that has been on the boards for 15+ years that good patterns don’t guarantee snowstorms.

But we’re not going to pretend the chances are the same in a good pattern vs a garbage one either.  It’s ok to talk about potential. 

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Just now, ORH_wxman said:

Who guaranteed snowstorms?

It should be common knowledge for someone like you that has been on the boards for 15+ years that good patterns don’t guarantee snowstorms.

But we’re not going to pretend the chances are the same in a good pattern vs a garbage one either.  It’s ok to talk about potential. 

I agree with you. It’s fun talking about potential . And it may be there . But until that potential lies deep on our lawns and WSW are flying like farts from Ray at the bar in BOS that night , it remains just that.. potential.  I’m excited, but cautious and persistent. 

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14 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

My point is .. how many times can the boy cry wolf until no one listens? Until we actually have a snowstorm, it’s just guessing and hoping. Just because modeling shows patterns changing and snow.. it doesn’t mean it will happen. It certainly may, but it’s hard for most folks to get excited or to buy into these guarantees here of snowy pattern when we’ve been hearing that boy crying since Jan 5th. I truly hope things change and they’re right. I’m not saying you guys won’t be right.. just urging persistence until we’re looking into the barrel of the beast.

Who are you? There used to be more pep in your step. Take some testerone boosters...I see signs of aging.

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Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

 

Who are you? There used to be more pep in your step. Take some testerone boosters...I see signs of aging.

Nah. It’s a win win for DIT. If we somehow skunk, he can tell us he told us so. If we rock, you’ll see the LFG posts one after another. It’s a defense or coping mechanism. Whatever works...

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1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

 

Who are you? There used to be more pep in your step. Take some testerone boosters...I see signs of aging.

We’ve lost over a month of our favorite season. After a good first half of Dec, we’ve lost every game, every promise . I’m just tone deaf from the crying boy . I need to see the whites of his eyes(snow)

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1 minute ago, NorEastermass128 said:

Nah. It’s a win win for DIT. If we somehow skunk, he can tell us he told us so. If we rock, you’ll see the LFG posts one after another. It’s a defense or coping mechanism. Whatever works...

Being a reverse weenie is always the easier job. 

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32 minutes ago, Hoth said:

Yeah, no. I got my entire '19-'20 winter in one system in December. Even with a boring month, this is way better. 

The overall tenor seems similar, fast start with + snowfall and now mild, snowless, in limbo waiting for that LR favorable pattern to materialize. not the same verbatim or anything, obviously.

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1 minute ago, NorEastermass128 said:

Nah. It’s a win win for DIT. If we somehow skunk, he can tell us he told us so. If we rock, you’ll see the LFG posts one after another. It’s a defense or coping mechanism. Whatever works...

I want nothing more than to post LFG’s and whee’s.... typical democratic response there lol. I hope your forecasts are right 

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16 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

My point is .. how many times can the boy cry wolf until no one listens? Until we actually have a snowstorm, it’s just guessing and hoping. Just because modeling shows patterns changing and snow.. it doesn’t mean it will happen. It certainly may, but it’s hard for most folks to get excited or to buy into these guarantees here of snowy pattern when we’ve been hearing that boy crying since Jan 5th. I truly hope things change and they’re right. I’m not saying you guys won’t be right.. just urging persistence until we’re looking into the barrel of the beast.

Lol..Jan 5th was only a week ago.   Your points are well taken. But enough already about things being pushed out.  You know as well as all of us, more times than not, pattern changes are rushed. This has been no exception.  The persistent idea is a joke after a while...and it’s almost over now.  
 

it’s been a rough few weeks for us who love active winter weather, but that looks to be changing.  So don’t be afraid to discuss. Just let it hang out. If it sh*ts the bed, it’s nobody’s fault, it’s just weather. 

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Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

We’ve lost over a month of our favorite season. After a good first half of Dec, we’ve lost every game, every promise . I’m just tone deaf from the crying boy . I need to see the whites of his eyes(snow)

I hear ya man but if you’re gonna melt just let it all out and get it done. You’re on the fence right now which us unlike you. 

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