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jburns

Mid to Long Term Discussion 2021

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15 minutes ago, griteater said:

Well this is no way to start a weekend.  Only happy hour can save us now (in more ways than one).

Now watch the EPS improve from its last run

Don't think it did.

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I'm all in, and I'll take anything freezing or frozen.  

 

Also, we're in that time of the year where we can get some pretty wild swings that can come out of nowhere.  The odds are much better than what we had in January when the pattern was extremely persistent and there was no truly arctic air anywhere remotely close to tap into.  

I believe a beast is coming.  When it does, it will likely put an end to winter.  I'd be okay with that. 

TW

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Raleigh forecast discussion. Interesting 

A great deal of uncertainty in the long term pattern but there
are indications of colder temperatures and the potential for wintry
precipitation at the end of the period...

Sunday into Monday: a surface low will be exiting the Outer Banks on
Sunday morning as the northern stream upper level trough axis moves
across the southern Appalachians. The main precipitation shield will
be lifting northeast away from central NC through the mid morning
hours with some light lingering drizzle or light rain persisting for
a couple of hours before the upper trough axis clears the area.
Boundary layer temperatures will be near and just above freezing
across the northern Piedmont. As the low shifts east, the above
freezing warm nose around 750mb cools which could result in a brief
rain/snow mix across the northern Piedmont. The potential for this
is offset by drying aloft and decreasing moisture in the ice
nucleation region. At this point, little impact is expected. Cold
advection will counteract increasing amounts of afternoon sunshine
with highs ranging in the mid 40s near the Virginia border to the
lower 50s across the south.

High pressure centered over the northern Plains and south-central
Canada will extend into the Great Lakes and Mid Atlantic on Sunday
night and into the Carolinas on Monday. With clear skies and light
winds, lows Monday morning will range in the mid to upper 20s with
some of the typically colder spots having lows closer to 20. Fair
weather with some mid and high clouds are expected on Monday with
highs moderating a bit into the mid 40s north to lower 50s south.

Forecast confidence goes out the window for the remainder of the
work week as a broad upper trough over much of central and eastern
Canada and the U.S. A wave will likely transit the eastern U.S. on
Tuesday with a general westerly flow across the south. With time,
the trough amplifies across the central U.S., Arctic air spills
south, and the flow becomes increasingly active and southwesterly
across the South and the Carolinas. Indications are that the flow
will become amplified on Thursday into Friday as a storm system
moves across the Southeast. With a piece of the Arctic high setting
up over eastern Canada, there is a potential for some wintry
precipitation although details are impossible to resolve at this

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26 minutes ago, tarheelwx said:

I'm all in, and I'll take anything freezing or frozen.  

 

Also, we're in that time of the year where we can get some pretty wild swings that can come out of nowhere.  The odds are much better than what we had in January when the pattern was extremely persistent and there was no truly arctic air anywhere remotely close to tap into.  

I believe a beast is coming.  When it does, it will likely put an end to winter.  I'd be okay with that. 

TW

Or to civilization if we get that 20” Snow followed by 1” of ICE and temps below Zero either way I’m fine with it :lol:

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9 minutes ago, SENC said:

Dear MOD,, sry, I'm drinking..  i'm so sry..

 

at least We don't get ICE, ICE..

Baby..

 

(won't let me upload)..

Alright stop, collaborate and listen

GFS is back with a brand new edition.

Something grabs ahold of me tightly

It's the Kuchera totals & it's snowing lightly.

 

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30 minutes ago, Ghicks said:

I just don't think the models are doing changing at this point. Time will tell. 

The models will keep on changing. I'm pretty indifferent and still a little numb, the 12z euro was a real groin hit, but there are still arguments to be made for both sides: 

Pro storm side: models don't have a great grasp on the polar vortex, a feature that's both difficult to model and sample. Ensembles still *totally* show big hits within the realm of possibility. There's still time and room for it to roam back east to be in the position we need. This shift could very well be a "flash", the south-east ridge may be in its apex of modeling, and subsequent runs will begin to bend towards a familiar curve, beating down the ridge a little cycle after cycle. With such an extreme amount of cold air in Canada, any nudges count. Lastly, feels like we've been able to summon CADs out of the ether at will this winter and CAD sneaking in to blast the Carolinas is always a possibility. I mean sheesh, we havent seen 60 in raleigh all winter, is this really what breaks that?

Anti storm side: models will continue to slide the polar vortex west and hold it back, bringing troughing out west and puffing up the SER more and more. In a week we start the severe thread to discuss the enhanced risk that spreads from coastal georgia to about morehead city. 

pick your poison.

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2 hours ago, NorthHillsWx said:

Rules in the south:

1) arctic air is ALWAYS over modeled 

2) arctic air is ALWAYS slower to arrive than modeled

Don’t forget.

1) cold = no precip

2) precip = no cold

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GFS and EC ensembles are pretty much on top of each other through day 6... For those looking for some positive nuggets. The OP Euro's evolution out west appears pretty unlikely. Additionally it's pretty rare to see a large cold dome like this dislodge and head SE towards the CONUS. Sometimes the mods have difficulty in these situations due to the density of the airmass. Normally they don't just put on the brakes and stop north of the Dakotas.

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Happy hour GFS may try to deliver actually, let's see.  It's later of course.  The window simply isn't going to open, obviously, until that TPV in Canada (and sfc high) drops down into the conus.  Wave in the 4 corners at hr216 with lots of cold out front

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The wave dampens out, but it has light snow across the south and into the Carolinas.  GFS actually has a really good looking pattern (lol) after that high drops down as it just holds the cold high over the upper Midwest with an active southern stream

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We need to pull off something soon. Time is running out. Tomorrow is already lost.

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Happy hour GFS has a light snow storm on day 10 and major wintry mix storm on day 12.  Yeah I know that's crazy being so far out, but whatever.  Honestly, I can't recall ever seeing a model run that held good high pressure in place for so long like this one.

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