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Mid to Long Term Discussion 2021

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If we don’t score with the retrograding block and coldest air in the northern hemisphere trapped under it for a week or longer then I give up! You literally can not dream of a better situation than this. 

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28 minutes ago, burrel2 said:

If we don’t score with the retrograding block and coldest air in the northern hemisphere trapped under it for a week or longer then I give up! You literally can not dream of a better situation than this. 

Those on this board with expertise in pattern recognition have been honing in on this time period for weeks. To see it show up on modeling is pretty awesome. Hopefully we can score. 

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My favorite analogy for patterns like this is the hockey powerplay analogy- 

For the unaware, penalties in hockey result in the fouling team losing a player for 2 minutes, so the other team has a 5-4 personnel advantage. They have a "powerplay". You can think of these like mildly favorable, cool patterns. We're more likely to score, but it's not guaranteed.

Super-cold, active patterns like this are like 5-3 powerplays, where a fouling team loses 2 players for 2 minutes. It increases the ability for the powerplay team to score a lot, but in the abstract, there's still a better chance that you don't score than the other way around. 

Just the way it is living in the south! 

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^Just to stretch the analogy, we need it to be a double power play 5 on 3, because of major penalties so we can score as many goals in that time and keep the advantage on the ice as well. 

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1 hour ago, ILMRoss said:

My favorite analogy for patterns like this is the hockey powerplay analogy-

I like your analogy.  Unfortunately, we live in a part of the country with the powerplay strength of the Minnesota Wild.  @frazdaddy will get what I’m saying.  :D

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Anybody with access to euro control/ensembles from 12z? Interested to know how they looked for both threats

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2 hours ago, benjammin said:

^Just to stretch the analogy, we need it to be a double power play 5 on 3, because of major penalties so we can score as many goals in that time and keep the advantage on the ice as well. 

Maybe if the other team forgets to show altogether we can score?

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It's funny how Brad P (who I love) rips people apart (mostly on Twitter) for posting/believing in fantasy snow maps, but he's been hyping this potentially-fantasy "arctic blast" for a few days now". Posted the potential for single digit temps at CLT less than 48 hours ago. We might not be below freezing with these trends!

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1 hour ago, SnowDeac said:

It's funny how Brad P (who I love) rips people apart (mostly on Twitter) for posting/believing in fantasy snow maps, but he's been hyping this potentially-fantasy "arctic blast" for a few days now". Posted the potential for single digit temps at CLT less than 48 hours ago. We might not be below freezing with these trends!

Brad P. is the same met who claimed to have a 51 mph wind gust at his house a few weeks ago until a guy on Twitter pointed out to Brad that he had his weather station set to km/h.  :lol:

 

 

9B590390-251E-415E-AC9E-828063CA6CF1.jpeg

DF20491C-CE77-4CE0-8ACD-F2495D8A0052.jpeg

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1 hour ago, magpiemaniac said:

Brad P. is the same met who claimed to have a 51 mph wind gust at his house a few weeks ago until a guy on Twitter pointed out to Brad that he had his weather station set to km/h.  :lol:

DE89988E-9DA2-49AC-9906-D0645D047874.jpeg

A22C8F0D-747A-4956-B3CF-51AB20EA7812.jpeg

Lol....

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1 hour ago, HKY1894 said:

Anybody with access to euro control/ensembles from 12z? Interested to know how they looked for both threats

12z Euro Control for this weekend has the low tracking into E SC / E NC with a little snow or wintry mix at onset in NW portions of the forum.  It has a light wintry event across N SC and most of NC (more in NE NC) on Thu the 11th, then a moderate wintry event across parts of TN/NGA/NW SC/W-C NC on Sun the 14th

Here is EPS Member Snow for the full run thru Feb 17th:

Feb-2-EPS-1.png

Feb-2-EPS-2.png

 

 

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1 minute ago, griteater said:

12z Euro Control for this weekend has the low tracking into E SC / E NC with a little snow or wintry mix at onset in NW portions of the forum.  It has a light wintry event across N SC and most of NC (more in NE NC) on Thu the 11th, then a moderate wintry event across parts of TN/NGA/NW SC/W-C NC on Sun the 14th

Here is EPS Member Snow for the full run thru Feb 17th:

Feb-2-EPS-1.png

Feb-2-EPS-2.png

 

 

Not as good as I thought it might be. Wonder why we aren't seeing bigger storms show up yet. Too much northern stream? No subtropical jet?

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this is ridiculous .  I thought for sure we would score this weekend or next midweek.  Mercy, I give up.  northeast gets 30 inches and I can't get but a half inch every time we have potential.  yep where did the epic cold go.  met said the other day if we get any moisture it would be snow because of the cold and now maybe just plain old temps in the upper 30's.  Mercy

t

't

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It's funny how Brad P (who I love) rips people apart (mostly on Twitter) for posting/believing in fantasy snow maps, but he's been hyping this potentially-fantasy "arctic blast" for a few days now". Posted the potential for single digit temps at CLT less than 48 hours ago. We might not be below freezing with these trends!

I know this is the discussion thread but I was thinking the same thing then saw your post! Good job !!


.

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28 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

Not as good as I thought it might be. Wonder why we aren't seeing bigger storms show up yet. Too much northern stream? No subtropical jet?

Think we just have to sit tight and wait it out / see where this goes

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5 hours ago, SnowDawg said:

Trying to understand what differences turned the cold blast into a cold brush at hours where I expected a bit more consistency from the models lol.

Does this baja low on the 12z yesterday contribute to the higher heights in the western US, and thus forcing the cold further south?21CDAE56-CF18-400D-8247-7955C42DC98B.thumb.png.e2465dcab2aff541e32318eba8b70666.png

That feature is cometely gone today.EF171451-7568-4096-97CD-6EABADA00B4B.thumb.png.5a06aaac5f81ac2c81e55eb36cd1f2ed.png

It looks like it's just a matter of the amplitude, location, and orientation of the ridge that goes up into Alaska.  The UKMet has -32 deg F in Iowa at the end of its run at hr144

Feb-2-UKMet-Temp.png

 

Feb-2-UKMet.gif

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7 minutes ago, griteater said:

It looks like it's just a matter of the amplitude, location, and orientation of the ridge that goes up into Alaska.  The UKMet has -32 deg F in Iowa at the end of its run at hr144

Feb-2-UKMet-Temp.png

 

Feb-2-UKMet.gif

And that for a model with a known warm bias.

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Question:  Isn't the 'Mean' a better reflector than the Control run... or does it depend? Wasn't sure so thought I would pose that.

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