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jburns

Mid to Long Term Discussion 2021

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Back to the weather- The UK shows a nice storm Sunday as well. I think it may be our best threat of the year for the I 40 corridor, northern foothills and mountains 

sn10_024h.us_ma (1).png

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6 hours ago, StantonParkHoya said:

Objectively, no, no they haven’t. That’s why we have record books.

See May 1992.....

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7 hours ago, magpiemaniac said:

Those GFS clown map gradients in Alamance County at 1:00 AM Thursday are hilarious.  Two-mile difference between 0” and 8”.  LOL.

Downtown Burlington? 8”! The academy sports on the west side? Nothing! 

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6zgfs, icon, nam... Still shows snow for northern NC.

Still not out of realm of possibility that Thursday system over performs.

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Just now, BornAgain13 said:

Anybody want to chime in why the GFS all of a sudden jumps on board with the Para for the Thursday system?

:drunk:

It's the gfs. It's got issues. 

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the 6z NAM was a little juicer than 3K NAM, but both seemed to jump south...  Still just having a hard time buying it with the cold chasing moisture scenario at the end of this system.  Unless there is some banding at the end.  

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Sunday is a really nice system for those in the western half of NC on the overnight run of the euro.... temps below freezing for the duration as well. 

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8 minutes ago, BooneWX said:

Sunday is a really nice system for those in the western half of NC on the overnight run of the euro.... temps below freezing for the duration as well. 

I can’t help but temper my expectations after this Thursday’s debacle. Mid Atl forum are highlighting the fact that euro is out on an island right now and its simply because there are 4 different s/w flying around and would take a perfect scenario to get the euro to come to fruition. My main concern from my own thoughts is having the fire hose setup too far to our north and missing the main slug of moisture. I hope it doesnt happen but that would be cause for concern or #1 

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1 hour ago, Buddy1987 said:

I can’t help but temper my expectations after this Thursday’s debacle. Mid Atl forum are highlighting the fact that euro is out on an island right now and its simply because there are 4 different s/w flying around and would take a perfect scenario to get the euro to come to fruition. My main concern from my own thoughts is having the fire hose setup too far to our north and missing the main slug of moisture. I hope it doesnt happen but that would be cause for concern or #1 

The UK agrees with Euro so not on an island 

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Just now, magpiemaniac said:

The 12z NAM really cut back on totals.

It just oriented the precip differently. The HRRR is pretty enthusiastic about our chances even though it's at the end of its range. 

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1Z NAM looks decent, but 3K NAM says nope...  
HRRR is a mix between the two.  The end of the run is 12Z on Thursday and most of precip will be done by then anyway.

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Just now, BullCityWx said:

It just oriented the precip differently. The HRRR is pretty enthusiastic about our chances even though it's at the end of its range. 

You’re right.  I haven’t even looked at the HRRR yet.  It’s pretty generous with snow IMBY.  IIRC, the HRRR was did a pretty good job with the January 8 event here.

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4 minutes ago, BullCityWx said:

The UKMET looks like it would be about 8 snow flakes, 16 ice pellets and then rain for 95% of the states population.

Really? 

sn10_024h.us_ma (2).png

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12z ICON still trying to make something of the Thur system from ROA and then southeast toward the eastern NC coast. Para and GFS also showing it as of 6z. Will see what it shows here shortly.

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