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Mid to Long Term Discussion 2021


jburns
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Just now, BullCityWx said:

That's what the evolution looked like on F5wx. 

I'm not sold on it yet but I do think this is the best chance for CAD areas north of 40. The source cold is the coldest of the season by far even though the storm track is far from optimal 

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Just now, BullCityWx said:

but with the SLP so far west, I just cant see it being a big deal. If it was coming up through Huntsville and Knoxville then maybe. 

That air mass to the north is just so cold, it would probably overcome a bad placed LP. One thing I just saw on the 12Z ICON that bears watching is that it’s popping a meso high in VA. 

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4 minutes ago, Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said:

That air mass to the north is just so cold, it would probably overcome a bad placed LP. One thing I just saw on the 12Z ICON that bears watching is that it’s popping a meso high in VA. 

Agreed. Most models specifically cad favored models like Canadian had single digits in the northeast, which lets people know the preceding airmass is solid.

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6 minutes ago, Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said:

That air mass to the north is just so cold, it would probably overcome a bad placed LP. One thing I just saw on the 12Z ICON that bears watching is that it’s popping a meso high in VA. 

Other thing that I really like is the fact the high almost slides in tandem verbatim with icon as the LP is moving in toward the area. Recently we’ve seen the HP haul ass to the north and east prior to LP arriving. 

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Just now, BullCityWx said:

I certainly hope you're right and I'm wrong. 

I think most models have been trending south/southeast with that LP in prior runs. The ICON just made a big push south with it. Partly because the HP to the north was further south and 2mb stronger. We’ll see! 

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1 minute ago, kvegas-wx said:

What in the Joe Bastardi is going on here??  Somebody please offer a red tag quality explanation cuz I'm lost among these bi-polar models today.

I’m supposing that cold air advection and good rates overcome borderline temps, but I did not sleep in a Holiday Inn Express last night.

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