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jburns

Mid to Long Term Discussion 2021

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4 minutes ago, CaryWx said:

We don't really have a lot of time for much more trending really do we?

There's still time on the southern periphery for some trends (in either direction). Not talking about whole-scale changes. The setup is the setup. This has been apparent for the past week. Once this HP get's far enough east, we will get in on the Ice eventually ("we" being the southern VA/western/central NC).

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2 minutes ago, HKY_WX said:

There's still time on the southern periphery for some trends (in either direction). Not talking about whole-scale changes. The setup is the setup. This has been apparent for the past week. Once this HP get's far enough east, we will get on the Ice eventually (we being the southern VA/western/central NC)

I hope not. Unless the ice is sleet 

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39 minutes ago, tarheelwx said:

Can anyone post the 00z Euro ice map for comparison?

TW

ECMWF-WeatherBell-Maps.thumb.png.08e64934cc39d4f8e59fb9775963e0aa.png

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Draw a line from Henderson to hickory. NW of that line is a high probability warning event. Go 1-2 counties south of that line and you’re in the grey area. That’s how you forecast 90% of CAD ice events in NC and this is no exception 

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13 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

Draw a line from Henderson to hickory. NW of that line is a high probability warning event. Go 1-2 counties south of that line and you’re in the grey area. That’s how you forecast 90% of CAD ice events in NC and this is no exception 

Pretty much this. NAM only gets those areas down to 30-32 which isn't good enough for a high end event. Raleigh may touch 32 briefly but mainly 33-36. wash, rinse, repeat.

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Eric Webb:  this trend of a slower SE Canada vortex flattens/suppresses the height field over the E US, shifting the track of the next storm later this week SEward w/ a relatively narrower rain-snow transition zone/less ice overall as mid-upper level forcing for descent weakens. https://t.co/rkMKzj8jq8 https://t.co/ntVYmcMLpc 

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48 minutes ago, WinstonSalemArlington said:

Eric Webb:  this trend of a slower SE Canada vortex flattens/suppresses the height field over the E US, shifting the track of the next storm later this week SEward w/ a relatively narrower rain-snow transition zone/less ice overall as mid-upper level forcing for descent weakens. https://t.co/rkMKzj8jq8 https://t.co/ntVYmcMLpc 

kick that sucker a bit further south so we can get some sleet in here.  Don't need another lights out storm within 5 days of the first...

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Nam looks to have a little better of a push of cold air at 45-48 as well as suppression looking a tad better if you want wintry weather in general 

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NAM has a solid trend towards a stronger wedge (especially note the escarpment/foothills of NC/SC/NE GA). However, not too sure I'd pay much attention to the NAM precip fields this far out. 

 

 

trend-nam-2021021518-f063.sfct.us_ma.gif

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18z ICON if anything is just a touch colder. Keeps CAD areas of NC aob freezing the entire event.  I'm not buying it, but it does have me paying attention.

TW

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