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Mid to Long Term Discussion 2021


jburns
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1 hour ago, Tacoma said:

yep next weekend looked so promising and now poff and we're back to 10 days or 14 days out again till the 21st,  where is that cold air that we were suppose to have this coming week.  Thought for sure it would be here by next weekend. :axe:

You're under a winter storm warning currently 

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If this trend were to continue the big dogs would come back.....
GFS.thumb.gif.93fa34c1f5c04ab9b3bb920687fd7c91.gif
 
Glad I am not the only one who noticed, if the jester starts back that trend we might be in business. I think they severely over amped the SER and are now having to recorrect. We still got some wiggle room to work with time wise

Sent from my LGL322DL using Tapatalk

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What are the odds the models lost the system again at day 7-8 and find it again at day 5 like has happened many times before? Im on the coast so I know my odds are slim to none regardless but I always enjoy seeing my fellow NC people get snow.

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13 minutes ago, Snow haven said:

Oh that will change!! Trends were good for the first part of the week being the coldest air of the last 3 years...you see how that worked out! 

Of course it's going to change, no one here has the answers to what the upcoming pattern will bring. At this point following the ensembles is the way to go, but that will drive you crazy because it seems like the GFS and Euro always do the opposite of each other lol. I am right there with you it's coming, oh it will be here, and the next thing you know we are still looking 7- 10 days out. 

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12z GFS def trending the right way for next week for mountains as of right now. @BornAgain13 and I verbatim would look to get some pretty serious ice accretion. There’s 1040-1041 not too far away from being in an optimal spot. If that keeps shifting southward along with the flow of 5h could be an entirely different outcome as what’s modeled currently. Needing to get through this first storm first.

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1 minute ago, Buddy1987 said:

12z GFS def trending the right way for next week for mountains as of right now. @BornAgain13 and I verbatim would look to get some pretty serious ice accretion. There’s 1040-1041 not too far away from being in an optimal spot. If that keeps shifting southward along with the flow of 5h could be an entirely different outcome as what’s modeled currently. Needing to get through this first storm first.

Yeah not bad trends at all. Day 7.5 snow as well for much of NC. 

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5 minutes ago, BullCityWx said:

Yeah not bad trends at all. Day 7.5 snow as well for much of NC. 

Kinda obv the models are going to struggle mightily with middle to end of next week storm. CMC has a 1041 in a damn good spot yet it looks like frozen may line up even to my north northwest. High in that position there’s no way. Beyond this one looks like a headache of a storm to track waiting to happen. Regardless it’s lights out for somebody on the wintry side. That is a mega death band of precip just getting pumped from the gulf. Ice ice baby!

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1 minute ago, Leesville Wx Hawk said:

Just saw that.  Looks like the cold will finally win out by Saturday then a disturbance.  I’ve seen this scenario play out before.  In general, it takes artic air to make life interesting east of the mountains.

Yep, it’s a tale as old as time on this side of the mountains.

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43 minutes ago, BullCityWx said:

Yeah not bad trends at all. Day 7.5 snow as well for much of NC. 

That's the s/w that the 18z run on Feb 3 bombed out.  Not out of the realm yet. If the PV can kick out a little faster and the PNA ridge a little stronger...

image.png

2/3 18z same time

gfs_z500_vort_us_40.png

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6 minutes ago, Wow said:

That's the s/w that the 18z run on Feb 3 bombed out.  Not out of the realm yet. If the PV can kick out a little faster and the PNA ridge a little stronger...

 

 

 

Thats my hope, the chances the models have the location and timing of the S/W's in this range given the setup is pretty low and there is going to be a lot of changes run to run, it wont be till Tues/Wed once the players are better sampled modeled that we get a real idea....so while the monster big dog seems much less likely on most runs the potential for it to come back is certainly there. 

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7 minutes ago, BullCityWx said:

People have to realize that maybe this isn’t a sleet or snow event but the extracted data on BUFKIT shows Greensboro very close to a n ice storm disaster at 12z. What do we know about ice events? They almost always trend colder. 

 

Right we need the PV to either dive on down and give us a monster snow storm or hang up.....some runs have had epic ice storms with temps in the single digits and teens for DAYS afterwards which would be certainly life threatening with widespread power outages, and with that kind of bitter cold it would be very difficult for crews to begin to repair the damage....

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5 minutes ago, griteater said:

I just want to see the cold vortex in Canada drop down. Euro/EPS from last night never dropped it down because it loses the NE PAC ridging, so that’s the close the curtains scenario. UKMet and GFS/GEFS look similar at 144 today where they both want to swing it down out of Canada.

You know it seems like the UKMET has been the one most on top of the trends lately. 

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It just seems odd to me that you could get a polar vortex to kick southwest towards the west coast when you have a retrograding block... the vortex should move the opposite direction... as the bock swings west the vortex should push East.

have to hope the models are overdoing the southeast ridge effect as that seems to be biggest hinderance to it moving East.

 

 

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