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January Medium/Long Range Disco Thread

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Just now, Scraff said:

Anyone want to tell me why the 18z GFS is not snow next Friday. Go ahead JI. Lol. For real. Seems like a great track. 540 thickness plenty south of DC. What am I missing? 

Surface furnace. 

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26 minutes ago, Ji said:


80% of my love of snow has become
Digital unfortunately. I used to enjoy it more when I was a kid and no models or radars. Usually I’m miserable during the event because it feels like it’s ending or it’s never as good as the model
Hype or its not snowing as hard as i want. I do love heavy snow falling though. Prob top 5 favorite thing of my life. There is also a huge sense of loss when it’s over. I hate seeing the sun out and snow plows and dripping crap. Snow says are always stressful for me. But nothing like a great model run 3 days out. But it’s torture knowing the next run won’t be as good

This is not a good hobby for me


.

The Sixth Winter, by Gribbin and Orgill might be a good for you. It’s about 40 years old, dated, but still interesting from that tines perspective. As always ....

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Just now, Scraff said:

:facepalm:

Not thinking that will turnout as depicted.  It does show what we are up against however with cold.  

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7 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

Surface furnace. 

Look at the evolution at 500 mb. It's wonky af. Short answer is it all comes together too late/too far north for us.

eta- I meant to reply to @Scraff lol

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Just now, CAPE said:

Look at the evolution at 500 mb. It's wonky af. Short answer is it all comes together too late/too far north for us.

Yep, too warm and too late. But, the general message could be as the long range turns to medium range the trend to colder wins out.

Also,  this may block could manifest itself with areas North of us cashing in first and then a general movement South mid month with a more Mid Atlantic type flavor finally going to a suppressed deep South hit.  EPS shows several opportunities near mid month, with active tracking near or after the  8 th.         

 

image.png.981fb2adbbab2225d0e2e886fd300743.png

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There used to be a site that you could view the top 10 analogs in detail (upper air, surface, measured snowfall, etc.).  Does anyone remember what I am referring too? If so , do you have a link?

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11 minutes ago, Scraff said:

Anyone want to tell me why the 18z GFS is not snow next Friday. Go ahead JI. Lol. For real. Seems like a great track. 540 thickness plenty south of DC. What am I missing? 

Because it’s the gfs I guess. Those thicknesses, 850’s solidly below freezing, surface temps near freezing, early January ... no way it rains. I’m looking where I live of course.

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Look at the evolution at 500 mb. It's wonky af. Short answer is it all comes together too late/too far north for us.
eta- I meant to reply to [mention=3211]Scraff[/mention] lol

No matter what track the gfs shows...it’s not snow lol


.
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Just now, WinterWxLuvr said:

Because it’s the gfs I guess. Those thicknesses, 850’s solidly below freezing, surface temps near freezing, early January ... no way it rains. I’m looking where I live of course.

I’m with you. I think that might eventually turn into a legit threat. GFS just playing catch up perhaps to the changing teleconnections?

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Just now, WinterWxLuvr said:

Because it’s the gfs I guess. Those thicknesses, 850’s solidly below freezing, surface temps near freezing, early January ... no way it rains. I’m looking where I live of course.

Temps are marginal. We know that. It can still work. The problem is h5, h85, and the surface don't congeal in time for our latitude.

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1 hour ago, Prestige Worldwide said:

 

So close

1 hour ago, Ji said:

This guy here is the biggest warmista on Twitter

 

 


.

 

 

He said “would be hard not to get at least one big storm in that look”

1 hour ago, RDM said:

Haha - get ready Stormtracker.  The potential experience for you and your relative reminds me of the Brazilian foreign exchange student we had stay with my family 6 months when I was in HS in Ohio.  When he arrived in Feb of 77 the ONLY word of English he spoke was "COLD".  The look in his eyes when he got off the plane spoke of sheer terror as he'd never contemplated such a hellish cold environment could exist.  The extent of his winter clothes was a light weight sweater, so our first trip was to the local mall to buy him a winter coat.  (He'd never seen a mall either).  He stuck it out, but I'll never forget the look on his face when he got off the plane.    

Friends from Brazil sent their son to stay with us for his “summer” break the winter of 2002/3. He had never seen snow before in his life. At one point I remember he said “I didn’t know you lived at the North Pole.  

1 hour ago, JakkelWx said:

BEST   PATTERN since 1996 

WOOF

Ok I think we’ve killed him enough on that. He jumped the gun (guidance often jumps on a pattern change too fast then backs off) but pattern wise he wasn’t totally wrong. Just a week to fast. 

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1 hour ago, JakkelWx said:

Shame the snow is hardly sticking to the roads. But on the grass it's a different story

Mdecoy recorded a T 

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52 minutes ago, thunderman said:

 

22 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I love that site. No two storms are ever exactly the same but often those analogs can hint at if guidance is over or under estimating the potential of a setup.

That site has helped us on our biggest snow and severe events around here. It was used by multiple people in this office, including me, for the recent major winter storm. Did a solid job, but this one was its own beast in other ways. Pretty awesome site to keep bookmarked. 

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2 minutes ago, Wentzadelphia said:

Interesting December 27 2000 shows up on the analog list. (Obv similar pattern to the dec 30 storm) I thought the gfs snowfall map and precip orientation looked very similar

That is not a fondly remembered event here 

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11 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

That is not a fondly remembered event here 

I know, sorry. I had posted on another forum that it looked like dec 30 a bit while the gfs was coming out. It does have a lot of Miller b attributes so far on the modeling. Apologies in advance

 

let me add. Obvious differences here, but both dec 30 event and this one were bowling ball events. Probably why it’s showing up on cips along with the block.

DB02C17D-0B09-4186-8F25-B95BEB1927E5.gif

4343C15B-9E02-4523-8C73-4F5789DD8483.jpeg

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2 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

That is not a fondly remembered event here 

A snow event didn't work on December 27th? Surprise, surprise...lol What happened that time...suppression?

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3 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

A snow event didn't work on December 27th? Surprise, surprise...lol What happened that time...suppression?

No it was December 30 2000. Huge dc bust. Accumulated partly sunny skies I believe lol. Forecast was like 4-8” the night of the storm. Miller b developed too Far East. Here in Philly we got 8” but Just a few miles west got nothing

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7 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

A snow event didn't work on December 27th? Surprise, surprise...lol What happened that time...suppression?

Snow map from gfs kind of has those same qualities. This means nothing though. No two storms are ever the same like psu said. I just use the cips site to see if heavy hitters are showing up.

A995878F-014B-40F7-97B0-3710CFB621BA.png

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8 minutes ago, Wentzadelphia said:

Snow map from gfs kind of has those same qualities. This means nothing though. No two storms are ever the same like psu said. I just use the cips site to see if heavy hitters are showing up.

A995878F-014B-40F7-97B0-3710CFB621BA.png

Sir. I'm gonna have to ask you politely to NEVER post this storm in here ever again. 

Sincerely,

A Scarred Meteorologist and Mid Atlantic Snow Lover 

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5 minutes ago, Wentzadelphia said:

No it was December 30 2000. Huge dc bust. Accumulated partly sunny skies I believe lol. Forecast was like 4-8” the night of the storm. Miller b developed too Far East. Here in Philly we got 8” but Just a few miles west got nothing

Ah I see...(same thing about the date, though...moderate to big storms don't happen between Christmas and New Year's, lol)

Now...I'm still unclear on what Miller B's fo here...Now I assumed they were like a 90% failure here because of the problem of developing too late. Yet we can do better with a hybrid? @psuhoffman @CAPE or anybody else care to weigh in on this?

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