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nj2va

12/14 snow/rain/mix - Disco/Obs

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7 minutes ago, Ji said:
8 minutes ago, Weather Will said:
WB 0z NAM
E471D6CD-C395-4C54-AC2A-CA085032DCC4.thumb.png.fe3777c3299d6dbfc2cf393bf2c3ba30.png

Oh oh...Wednesday cancel. See ya guys next time there is a block in 2023

Watch Monday turn out being the big event of the week. Rabbit out of a hat.

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15 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

That is a big shift on the NAM from 18Z. But big shifts on the NAM dont surprise me. The Euro has insisted it is going to snow on Monday out here. Now it looks like everything else is going to catch up to it like usual. 

It's kinda crazy but we got a real shot. Im cautiously optimistic despite the marginal surface temps because both the NAM and Euro are showing heavy rates. Rates overcome so many set up flaws. If we get a heavy slug of moisture well be S+ and temp will go right to 32-33.Me and you could be under a winter storm watch by this time tomorrow. Maybe I'm getting a bit carried away. 

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Living in Leesburg may actually payoff for once here. But per the other thread, a more amped Monday storm may ahve a correlation to a weaker/more progressive/warmer Wednesday storm, right? At least that is how I read it.

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8 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Watch Monday turn out being the big event of the week. Rabbit out of a hat.

It’s unlikely.  The only way this probably could occur is if somehow the main shortwave responsible for the Wednesday event is being grossly overestimated by guidance.  Otherwise the Monday event being big seems to translate strongly in most ensembles as PSU saw to being a good indicator for Wednesday  

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1 minute ago, LeesburgWx said:

Living in Leesburg may actually payoff for once here. But per the other thread, a more amped Monday storm may ahve a correlation to a weaker/more progressive/warmer Wednesday storm, right? At least that is how I read it.

I think @psuhoffman was saying it was the opposite: that we want more amped to lower heights (still not entirely clear on what "heights" are, but I digress, lol). We want lower heights for a colder Wednesday system, I think.

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3 minutes ago, nj2va said:

Are we rooting for an amped/north wave for Monday for a better 50/50 setup?  

2 minutes ago, nj2va said:

Are we rooting for an amped/north wave for Monday for a better 50/50 setup?  

according to PSU...we want to give us the chance for snow monday even though it hasnt snow since 2019 for a bigger chance on Wednesday. can we have an amped south wave lol that just gives us huge rates?

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2 minutes ago, HighStakes said:

It's kinda crazy but we got a real shot. Im curiously optimistic despite the margin surface temps because both the NAM and Euro are showing heavy rates. Rates overcome so many set up flaws. If we get a heavy slug of moisture well be S+ and temp will go right to 32-33.Me and you could be under a winter storm watch by this time tomorrow. Maybe I'm getting a bit carried away. 

          This is what happened on 11/15/18.    The NAM was one of the coldest models for that event too and was largely dismissed, but it had the right idea of big rates overcoming a very marginal air mass.       

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1 minute ago, high risk said:

          This is what happened on 11/15/18.    The NAM was one of the coldest models for that event too and was largely dismissed, but it had the right idea of big rates overcoming a very marginal air mass.       

Nice to see you posting sir 

Big takeaway.  That was November and this time its mid December :thumbsup:so hopefully game on.

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@psuhoffmanwouldnt a more amped solution give us better rates. the 850 temps for monday have never been an issue but light precip was not going to overcome lower levels...but heavy rates?

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Just now, losetoa6 said:

Nice to see you posting sir 

Big takeaway.  That was November and this time its mid December :thumbsup:so hopefully game on.

The November 2018 event was what we call the due north overrunner when we did storm analysis.  I don’t know how they performed for you guys but for the NYC metro any event that comes up straight from the south with a high center near PWM ends up much snowier than expected because you get banding features and the cold air holds longer.  12/14/03 2/13/14 and 1/22/87 are other examples.  87 was more a classic Miller but the track was almost on a 180-360 angle up the coast.  There is absolutely a difference in isentropic glide features when it’s coming from that direction vs 220-040

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12 minutes ago, nj2va said:

Are we rooting for an amped/north wave for Monday for a better 50/50 setup?  

Yea I think that’s what PSU was alluding to when I asked him for gut opinion. It will allow the 2nd wave to amplify more with a stronger 50/50 in place. 

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